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After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

blog.robbowley.net

291–300 of 489 posts

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#291

This is where we're headed: https://sibylline.dev/articles/2025-10-12-ai-is-too-big-to-f...

AI generated Chinese propaganda. Good skills but wank.

Ironically, only the charts were AI generated and I'm a barbecue eating, truck driving, metal enjoying, weight lifting (or I used to be, before I got T-boned by a drunk driver going 135mph) American.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#292
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well we could still vote out the corrupt and actually invest in US infrastructure but I guess that's crazier than hanging all our hopes on AI serfdom.

This is true, the government is not completely captured yet, 2026 is our last chance, but it has to be decisive, or even crushing.

Ain't happening in 2026 or 2028. Democrats havent positioned anyone compelling and there positions are too flaky to capture a culture that is captivated by the idea every position is zero-sum.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic said their inference is cash positive. I would be very surprised if this isn't the norm.

I would be surprised if they are being honest.

Aren't they taking investor money? It would be a huge scandal if they're lying?

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The failure rate of GPUs in professional datacenter environments is over estimated by the general public because of the large number of overlocked and undercooled cards used for GPU mining that hit eBay.

What’s the strategy when one does die? It’s just left in place until it’s worth it to pull the entire rack?

No. When a single GPU fails it makes the whole 8-GPU server useless so it needs to be swapped promptly.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, the government is not completely captured yet, 2026 is our last chance, but it has to be decisive, or even crushing.

Ain't happening in 2026 or 2028. Democrats havent positioned anyone compelling and there positions are too flaky to capture a culture that is captivated by the idea every position is zero-sum.

Gavin Newsom has shown himself to be a savvy operator, I think he has a legitimate shot in 28 if there are free and fair elections. That caveat is pulling way too much weight here though.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#296
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can run quite useful models on my PC. Might not change the world but I got a usable transcript of an old foreign language TV show and then machine translated to English. It is not as good as professional subtitles but i wasn't willing to pay the cost of that option.

I did something similar with Whisper a year or so ago. 9 years ago, when my now wife and I were dating, we took a long cross-country road trip, and for a lot of it, we listened to NPR's Ask Me Another (a comedy trivia game). Anyway, on one random episode, there was a joke in the show that just perfectly fit what we were doing at that exact moment. We laughed and laughed and soon forgot about it. Years later, I wanted…

Now, at the price you paid to retrieve that memory, is it a viable business model?

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah im in agreement, ai will eventually do everything a human being can

Perhaps, but why are you so convinced we're so close when we weren't all the other times?

Not OP, but I do think that because "humanlike abstract thinking and informal reasoning is completely unnatural to how computers work, and it's borderline impossible to make them do that" was by far the biggest AI roadblock, in my eyes.

And we've made it past. LLMs of today reason a lot like humans do.

They understand natural language, read subtext, grasp the implications. NLP used to be the dreaded "final boss" of AI research - and now, what remains of it is a pair of smoking boots.

What's more is that LLMs aren't just adept at language. They take their understanding of language and run with it. Commonsense reasoning, coding, math, cocktail recipes - LLMs are way better than they have any right to be at a range of tasks so diverse it makes you head spin.

You can't witness this, grasp what you see, and remain confident that "AGI isn't possible".

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#298

> Most of the money is being spent on incredibly expensive GPUs that have a 1-3 year lifespan due to becoming obsolete quickly and wearing out under constant, high-intensity use. How about chips during the dotcom period? What was their lifespan?

That’s irrelevant because the primary assets left after the dotcom bubble was fiber in the ground with a lifetime measure in decades.

After the dotcom crash there was also a flood of used Cisco routers, Sun servers, and Aeron chairs and people were very happy to buy them cheap. The same thing will happen again.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#299
post #260
post #93

One key difference in all of this is that people were not predicting the dotcom bubble, so there was a surplus left after it popped. It was a surprise. This AI bubble already has lots of people with their forks and knifes waiting to capitalize on a myriad of possible surpluses after the burst. There's speculation on top of _the next bubble_ and how it will form, even before this one pops. That is absolutely disgustin…

>people were not predicting the dotcom bubble I don't know if you were there at the time but saying wow what a bubble was much of the conversation back then. I don't know if it was predicting it as saying gosh just look - you can take any company and put ".com" in the name and the stock goes up 5x, it's nuts.

Was there anyone saying "wow, when this bubble bursts there will be infrastructure everywhere!"?

It seems that in the current AI craze, some people stopped saying "it's nuts" and started saying "it will leave something nuts in its place!". As if the bubble had already burst!

Do you understand better now what I am trying to say?

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#300

The singularity. I don't think most authors of articles like these understand what the AI build up is about, they think it's another fad tool.

Even if you believe in the Singularity, there will be a crash if investors stop investing before it hits.
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