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OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

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Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#291

“Web of circular deals” Welcome to how economies work. You only worry when you can’t see where the ends of the circle meet up. Ponzi schemes are notable specifically due primarily to the fact that they’re so directional and one-way. If you can’t pinpoint the escapement and see how it’s feeding into the winding of some other spring, walk away.

What economy has this much money moving between 7 companies across such a narrow set of operations?

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#292
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can quite easily ask it to summarize the result in a sentence or paragraph. LLMs have no other way to compute than write text and the more text they write the more compute they do. You only care about the final output.

I do. It typically goes on to write a preamble about why it gave a long answer before finally providing a summary. Token stuffing.

This is akin to complaining about the overhead of radix conversion between decimal and binary in early computers.

Unless you figure out how to talk in latent space directly to an llm the preamble is the cost you pay for getting the answer back in English.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You sound like you know what you’re talking about. Honestly, I'm not an expert either, but I've run a company, and I can all but guarantee that credit_guy above really does not know what he is talking about.

what is incorrect with what they are saying?

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring

Yes but this is by design. Wealthy people want bubbles, when they pop, you can gobble up all the value at all time lows. Then you hold until you don't feel like it anymore as the market goes back to growing. You see this as how private equity has bought up real estate across the USA to turn into rentals after 2008, for example.

There was an article here recently about alpha school that mentioned this is how of of its backers made a lot in the aftermath of the dot com bubble - picking up companies with products that happened to implode in the bust. He's not the only one and that's not the only bubble that had that happen

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth noting Elisson is 2 years older than Trump. What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? Worst case, he got to be #1 for a bit for a few dozen billion, best case he's hoping AGI will extend his life before he croaks.

> What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? The thing that unites Ellison, Trump, Musk, Thiel and a fair few of the other politically active billionaires is the obsession with "legacy" - they want to leave their mark in the history books, figures which will likely be remembered and taught in schools in thousands of years similar to Roman emperors. Musk is the mos…

Thiel wants his legacy to be bringing about the Antichrist…

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#296
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Loans have happened long before 2008 and have continued ever since. This process is described in the Bible for example!

What does the Bible say about collecting interest on loans (the necessary part for making mortgage backed securities)

"Do not charge your brother interest on money, food, or any other type of loan. You may charge a foreigner interest, but not your brother." - Deuteronomy 23:19-20

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#297
post #19

"AI companies say these kinds of large, reciprocal, and sometimes overlapping deals are what's needed to meet growing demand for their tech. But as more and more money gets invested in the space these unorthodox business arrangements are also raising flags for industry analysts who are starting to wonder: Is the trillion-dollar AI market being propped up by the industry itself?"

From the outside: sure looks like. Can’t wait to find out if I’m right or wrong.

I think certain people are far too deep into it that there’s no rationale behind what is going on now.

It’s all about ‘accelerating’ forward at all costs.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only for you as an individual, from an economic and societal perspective a bursting bubble is never good!

It’s not the bursting that is bad. It’s the bubble that is bad. The bursting is unpleasant, but good.

Much like a boil.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#299
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Jensen Huang and Sam Altman seem to believe. Here's them 2 weeks ago being interviewed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVBzsg3yCK4&t=40s Also Brockman: >And so, you really want every person to be able to have their own dedicated GPU, right? So, you're talking order of 10 billion GPUs we're going to need. This deal we're talking about, it's for millions of GPUs. Like, we're still three orders of magnitude off of…

"this world where the whole economy is powered by compute" Is actually laughable.

I agree, though it's not out of the question that there could one day be a single country whose economy relies entirely on data centers, similarly to petrostates. Maybe we'll call them datastates, or compustates.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize, bubbles aren't completely bad.

Sure who cares if we wipe out 15% of everyone’s retirement right as long as it’s got some schadenfreude involved.

If it’s a bubble, then the long term value people are now counting on to retire with in the future is not actually real though, right? Like a bubble popping doesn’t destroy real value that used to exist, it exposes fictional value that never really existed.
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