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AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

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Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#291
post #34

What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? Like, will they be able to manufacture chips that compete with TSMC? They used to be a crown-jewel of US tech. But it seems like every time I read the news, they are announcing a delay or shutting down some product.

> Is Intel cooked? IMHO the whole user-visible p-core/e-core thing on desktop CPUs is one of the worst decisions in the history of microprocessors. My gaming machines need to do double-duty as as build boxes, so they're just utterly unusable for me.

Why is the asymmetry a show-stopper for you? It would seem like having lots of E-cores would be advantageous for compiling, and still having some P-cores means you don't lose performance when linking.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#292
post #34

What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? Like, will they be able to manufacture chips that compete with TSMC? They used to be a crown-jewel of US tech. But it seems like every time I read the news, they are announcing a delay or shutting down some product.

Intel is a great example of the fact that between stupidity and low-integrity behavior as a default, the people in charge fuck up in ways that the man on the street would get right. Defense is starting to get a blank check with fairly bipartisan support for the first time in at least 30-40 years and it's centered on semiconductor supply chains . There has never been a better time to secure the fucking funding, have A…

The climate of uncertainty under Trump inhibits long-term investment, whether in chip fabs, car factories, or anything else. He has reminded us all of something that's really always been a problem: whatever one Congress or one POTUS supports can be undone by the next.

Usually opposing parties have had the common sense not to immediately hit the undo button once they take office. E.g., Biden leaving most of Trump's previous nutty tariffs in place. But "common sense" isn't on the agenda these days. We are, to all intents and purposes, under attack from within.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wild to learn this is the same company selling MSG (mono sodium glutamate) and build up film - https://www.ajinomoto.com/innovation/our_innovation/buildupf... - https://www.ajinomoto.com/brands/aji-no-moto

Not really shocking considering how Japan likes conglomerates. Hyundai makes cars and military weapons and probably thousands of other things that aren’t even related to each other, don’t know if they still make computers.

To nitpick: Hyundai are Korean but the Korean Chaebols are in many ways even more dominant than Japanese Keiretsu (fmr. Zaibatsu) are. Mitsubishi would be a good Japanese example.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#295
post #34

What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? Like, will they be able to manufacture chips that compete with TSMC? They used to be a crown-jewel of US tech. But it seems like every time I read the news, they are announcing a delay or shutting down some product.

Some of us have been pointing out Intel was in a systematically impossible situation even back when they had that process advantage, now almost a decade ago. Quite simply imagine being dropped in as CEO of Intel in 2015. Could you have prevented the malaise of today?

A fine time to cancel Larabee properly and get serious about specialized GPU hardware five years earlier.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think their problem is less about material knowledge to shrink nodes but about development tooling to make chip design more efficient, scalable and allows experimenting with more new approaches/allows larger shifts without planing years ahead for it. TSMC by collaborating with many different customers with different needs had a lot of insensitive to not just create powerful tooling for one kind of CPU design approa…

From what I could gather while I was inside (2010-ish, but not directly involved with chip product lines) there was just incredible hubris company wide. "Intel Architecture is the best because we made it and we're the best" essentially. They were wasting a ton of time and effort eagerly trying to convince Apple to put IA into phones despite obvious failures to deliver power-effective chips (Atom being the result of t…

It also probably didn’t help with that arrogance issued, that ARM laptops were tried… more than a couple times, and didn’t generally work out. I mean, these new Snapdragon things might be good. But Intel successfully fended off multiple generations of Surface RT devices from their pseudo-partner Microsoft, from 2012 until recently.

Of course, one could have done an ARM Linux device at any point in that timeline, but using efficient software is apparently cheating.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel is a great example of the fact that between stupidity and low-integrity behavior as a default, the people in charge fuck up in ways that the man on the street would get right. Defense is starting to get a blank check with fairly bipartisan support for the first time in at least 30-40 years and it's centered on semiconductor supply chains . There has never been a better time to secure the fucking funding, have A…

The climate of uncertainty under Trump inhibits long-term investment, whether in chip fabs, car factories, or anything else. He has reminded us all of something that's really always been a problem: whatever one Congress or one POTUS supports can be undone by the next. Usually opposing parties have had the common sense not to immediately hit the undo button once they take office. E.g., Biden leaving most of Trump's pr…

The decline in what we expect of our leaders has been going on my entire life and the contrast between 20 years ago and the present is stark.

In 1998 Meriwether and the rest of LTCM nearly crashed the economy, needed the Fed to get involved, and they were personally ruined, guy never opened a ten thousand dollar bottle of wine again and probably never had anything again. Shortly thereafter, Jeff Skilling took out offices in 9 cities and pension plans all over the country with shady accounting. 24 years in prison (reduced later to 14). Ebbers/Worldcom 2002: died in prison.

By 2008? Zero prosecutions. Bonuses the next year.

Around the same time Clinton got caught lying about chasing (consenting and of age) skirt in the Office: nearly ended his presidency, definitely ended his policy agenda, real consequences and he caught a shooting star to avoid far worse. The public was not going to accept it, Congress was not going to let it slide on either side of the aisle. Today? Something like that barely makes the press. You have to be accused of sex trafficking to even get an investigation started and everyone will probably walk.

The idea that this became uniquely bad in January, or even 2016 is demonstrably untrue. At some time in the last 30 years we started accepting leadership who are dishonest, nakedly self-interested, lie without consequences, enrich themselves via extraction rather than value creation, collude with no oversight, and sell out the public.

This is a completely bipartisan consensus on these norms. Speaking for myself, I think Trump represents a new low, but not by much, he's just the next increment in what history will probably call the Altman Era if his ascent to arbitrary power on zero substance continues on it's current trajectory.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#298
post #89
post #34

What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? Like, will they be able to manufacture chips that compete with TSMC? They used to be a crown-jewel of US tech. But it seems like every time I read the news, they are announcing a delay or shutting down some product.

Intel's fab issues are overstated in my opinion. They were stuck on 14nm for a very long time because they bit off too much with 10nm. People act like that means ALL research in nodes smaller than 10nm must have stopped, but that's simply not true as research into tech and materials needed for smaller nodes happens in parallel. It's also noteworthy that GAAFET being a complete redesign of major parts of the manufactu…

On an emotional level I want to root for Intel (like most of the nerds here, they fabbed a good chunk of the magical elements of my childhood).

It seems difficult to figure out if they are getting back on track, though. They always seem to just be a couple years from finally catching up to TSMC.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#299
post #34

What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? Like, will they be able to manufacture chips that compete with TSMC? They used to be a crown-jewel of US tech. But it seems like every time I read the news, they are announcing a delay or shutting down some product.

Intel Financial Engineering & Operational Missteps is what led to this.

"Over the past 10 years, Intel engaged in financial engineering, primarily through significant stock buybacks ($53 billion in 2011–2015) and stock-based executive compensation, which diverted resources from innovation and contributed to its lag in semiconductor fabrication. This financialization, as critiqued in the 2021 report, is a long-term factor in Intel’s weakened competitive position"

https://semianalysis.com/2024/12/09/intel-on-the-brink-of-de...

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/how-intel-fi...

https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1726/...

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#300
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Intel technically leapfrog TSMC and their 18nm is better than TSMC 20nm this year but; Think you mean 1.8nm, aka 18A. We're way past 18nm and 20nm.

How long ago did nm numbers stop being descriptions of size of chip and start being purely marketing names? About a decade?

While it is true that the nm numbers are bullshit, using the same made-up number helps keep the conversation on track, haha.
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