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“Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

skyatnightmagazine.com

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Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#291

Post by cedilla »

autonomousErwin wrote: post #203
cedilla wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the next bush is dozens of light years away. The analogy breaks down because the distances are different in quality. The only reason why this becomes such a problem in the Three-Body-Problem is the existence of magic in that universe. Thinking protons, instant communication, folded dimensions, easy interstellar travel, it's all interesting speculation inspired by physics, but incompatible with our actual uni…

How do you know it's incompatible with the actual universe instead of our current understanding of the universe? Take us for example, we're communicating instantly (for practical purposes) using thinking machines - how would that not seem like magic to someone thousands of years ago? My point is, we don't know what the tribe have behind the bush. It's the equivalent of the Mayans wondering what's over that hill and t…

The only reason why we can't out sentient protons folded out of 28 microdimensions into our 3 macrodimensions is the same reason we can't rule out that our universe is actually the works of a giant hand puppet player called Zquaarx.

The problem is just - if any of what happens in 3BP was to actually happen, we would not have to be a little wrong (like Newton was in regard to celestial mechanics) but so wrong that it doesn't even make sense to apply what we know at all.

This is, by the way, the exact point of the first part of the first book: physicists discover that all off the known physics are completely wrong.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#292

Post by Scarblac »

lupusreal wrote: post #153
energy123 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is now much less plausible. Intelligence, like eyesight, is believed to be a result of convergent evolution[0]. [0] https://www.quantamagazine.org/intelligence-evolved-at-least...

Being intelligent doesn't necessarily lead to runaway technological development. Dolphins are smart but they're never going to invent radios to broadcast their existence to other star systems. They're stuck in the water and don't have thumbs. And even orangutans, who have thumbs and live on land, don't seem tracked for technology even if humans weren't around; their ecological niche is small even if we assumed humans…

Dolphins have only lived in the water for 50m years or so, they still breathe air. They could re-adapt to the land in that kind of time frame easily.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#293

Post by [deleted] »

Scarblac wrote: post #292
lupusreal wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being intelligent doesn't necessarily lead to runaway technological development. Dolphins are smart but they're never going to invent radios to broadcast their existence to other star systems. They're stuck in the water and don't have thumbs. And even orangutans, who have thumbs and live on land, don't seem tracked for technology even if humans weren't around; their ecological niche is small even if we assumed humans…

Dolphins have only lived in the water for 50m years or so, they still breathe air. They could re-adapt to the land in that kind of time frame easily.

[deleted]

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#294

Post by cedilla »

zaphirplane wrote: post #192
cedilla wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the next bush is dozens of light years away. The analogy breaks down because the distances are different in quality. The only reason why this becomes such a problem in the Three-Body-Problem is the existence of magic in that universe. Thinking protons, instant communication, folded dimensions, easy interstellar travel, it's all interesting speculation inspired by physics, but incompatible with our actual uni…

Why does the distance change the dynamic? So what if the species trying to exterminate you are 500 light years away, you think they should ignore it ? Maximum travel speed of an extermination weapon in 100,000 years of of science may very much be impressive or even magical by today’s standards

The distance completely changes the dynamic. If I tell you there's a crazy axe murderer in your house, you should be afraid. If I tell you there's a crazy axe murderer on Venus, how afraid are you?

And unless we are completely wrong about physics, the maximum speed of a weapon will be the same as it today - very close to 1c.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#295

Post by Scarblac »

OhioMan2943 wrote: post #218
BirAdam wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but if humans exist by the time the sun fails us, they wouldn’t really be the same species as us, and they’d hopefully have progressed to the point that they could escape the Earth.

You're saying we wont maintain tradition and our "humanity"?. I like to be a little more optimistic and believe in us as a species transferring values until the end.

Look at all types of mammal that exist, from us to platypuses to bats to whales. Evolved in a few hundred million years. Modern humans have been here for a few hundred thousand.

In 500 million years absolutely anything could happen (if we survive this century).

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#296

Post by x-yl »

teamonkey wrote: post #269
weberer wrote: post #5

Here's the primary source https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/adc1c8 They possibly detected dimethyl sulfide, which is only known to be produced by living organisms.

A lot of science papers are like “we found a hint of this thing, we need to do more research” and it’s reported as “ALIENS??!?” I understand why this is the case but I think it can lead to a loss in trust in science when the reporting jumps to conclusions that aren’t supported by the research itself. In this case the abstract is far more grounded. In particular, > The observations also provided a tentative hint of di…

I think you have misread the abstract. The 'low statistical significance' was a [prior work](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acf577). This paper has increased the significance to 3-sigmas which is on the lower end but still quite significant.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#297

Post by griffzhowl »

lordnacho wrote: post #178
lupusreal wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being intelligent doesn't necessarily lead to runaway technological development. Dolphins are smart but they're never going to invent radios to broadcast their existence to other star systems. They're stuck in the water and don't have thumbs. And even orangutans, who have thumbs and live on land, don't seem tracked for technology even if humans weren't around; their ecological niche is small even if we assumed humans…

We don't even need to look at other species. Humans have been just as smart as you and me, maybe even smarter according to cranial measurements, without inventing anything that significantly changed their way of life. There could be loads of planets with prehistoric humans, having a fine time hunting with bows and picking fruit.

I think by the time we get to modern humans it would only be a matter of time for technology to develop to something like the current stage. The main evidence I can think of is the independent development of agriculture in about 4-5 regions, and the independent development of large complex civilizations in the Americas and Eurasia.

Humans are cultural learners, so this allowed cumulative cultural evolution from at least as far back as the transition from Olowan to Acheulean stone technologies with Homo erectus ~2-3 million years ago. By the time we get to Homo sapiens and Neanderthal this capacity for cultural learning seems much increased. Some paleoarchaeologists (e.g. Dietrich Stout) argue that technological development has been exponential as far back as H. erectus, just that the early stages of the exponential curve look flat for a long time.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#298

Post by lupusreal »

diggan wrote: post #259
lupusreal wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've had at least two developments of ""dolphins"" that I know of. We also have other intelligent sea life, like squids and octopuses, who've been around for a hell of a long time and are on track to never develop advanced tool creation and use. Living in the water is a massive tech nerf.

> Living in the water is a massive tech nerf. Says land-living animal :) Again, are you saying that you confidently can predict a hypothetical future where Dolphins, even given millions of years, would never invent the radio? I think it's unlikely too, but so are humans, so who knows what could happen.

Besides the whole fire thing, which is a serious problem for the metallurgy necessary to make radio, to have any chance of it they'd need to get fingers instead of the optimal swimming flippers they have now. They'll never do that as long as they're aquatic. If millions of years of evolution has them climb out of the water and become land animals again then there might be a glimmer of hope for them, but then they'd no longer be recognizable as dolphins. As it stands now, field mice have a more direct path towards becoming radio makers than dolphins do.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#299

Post by lupusreal »

Scarblac wrote: post #292
lupusreal wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being intelligent doesn't necessarily lead to runaway technological development. Dolphins are smart but they're never going to invent radios to broadcast their existence to other star systems. They're stuck in the water and don't have thumbs. And even orangutans, who have thumbs and live on land, don't seem tracked for technology even if humans weren't around; their ecological niche is small even if we assumed humans…

Dolphins have only lived in the water for 50m years or so, they still breathe air. They could re-adapt to the land in that kind of time frame easily.

They'd still be dolphins in the same way that you are still a fish.

Also, I don't think you're right that they could do this easily. Their hind limbs have almost completely vanished, their pelvis too, and they have no chance of moving on land. To have a chance they would need to redevelop those things which they've lost, and I don't think there's a particularly plausible path where each step helps their survival at that step. In contrast, their four-limbed land adapted ancestors could swim much better than dolphins can walk.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#300

Post by teamonkey »

x-yl wrote: post #296
teamonkey wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of science papers are like “we found a hint of this thing, we need to do more research” and it’s reported as “ALIENS??!?” I understand why this is the case but I think it can lead to a loss in trust in science when the reporting jumps to conclusions that aren’t supported by the research itself. In this case the abstract is far more grounded. In particular, > The observations also provided a tentative hint of di…

I think you have misread the abstract. The 'low statistical significance' was a [prior work]( https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acf577 ). This paper has increased the significance to 3-sigmas which is on the lower end but still quite significant.

Yes you’re right, thanks.
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