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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#291

Post by rickdeckard »

pjc50 wrote: post #204
rickdeckard wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China generates over twice as much electricity per person today as the United States. Why? >> This appears to be completely wrong? All the stats I can find say that the US has about 4x the per capita electricity generation of China. I believe the comparison is absolute production, not per person. Anything else would be odd. Considering China has 4x the capita of US it would mean that in absolute terms China is prod…

> I believe the comparison is absolute production, not per person Original article definitely said "per person". China allocates much more to industry and/because it allocates much less to personal consumption. Especially things like air conditioning. US per person consumption is still 2x that of EU average.

> Original article definitely said "per person".

Yes, not your fault, I believe the AUTHOR meant to compare absolute production.

> China allocates much more to industry and/because it allocates much less to personal consumption

Let's not fall into the same hole: In relative terms, US residential is more than 2x of China's residential power use, but that's relative to the much larger production use. In absolute terms their residential power-allocation is not that different actually:

CN: 15% (1.2 trillion kWh)

US: 35% (1.46 trillion kWh)

Now, on a per-capita basis the difference is staggering, as China consumes 20% less to serve 4x the population...

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#292

Post by [deleted] »

csense wrote: post #135
asdajksah2123 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are plenty of people saying these tariffs will not work. Work to do what? > But a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support a house with a yard, a car, a non-working spouse and children. Why do you think this has anything to do with tariffs or manufacturing? > How do we get that level of prosperity back? Better pay for the jobs people actually work. Reducing inequality by…

> Work to do what? Bring back manufacturing, and make the US economy work better for workers. > Why do you think this has anything to do with tariffs or manufacturing? Because usually the best-paying jobs were in factories, especially if you didn't have a college degree. A lot of towns in the Rust Belt were economically dependent on a local factory -- think cars or steelmaking. Often, part of the reason these factori…

[deleted]

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#293

Post by shaboinkin »

imbusy111 wrote: post #48
mppm wrote: post #34

Jonathan Blow's "Preventing the collapse of civilization" [1] makes a similar point. It is easy to assume that, if we can build EUV machines and space telescopes, then processing stainless steel and manufacturing PCBs is baby stuff, and is just waiting for the proper incentives to spring up again. Unfortunately that is not the case -- reality has a surprising amount of detail [2] and even medium-level technology take…

But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?

It is if war is in the future. And I’m not saying this as hyperbole but based on statements made by NATO secretary general (both Rutte, previously Stoltenberg and former General Bauer) about Russia’s military production outproducing NATO, or Finish President Stubb speaking on the powers of the world shifting and the need to ramp production which were echo’d recently by Macron, or the Arctic region soon to become a contested region with China and Russia attempting to stake their influence in the area which is obviously at conflict with the personal interests of the other countries in the region. It seems obvious to me that the world is a bit hotter than before 2022, with the likelihood of some conflict between powers of the world coming to pass being greater. If production of raw materials to usable materials is all contained within countries that are deemed to be unfriendly by the one lacking this production capability, it’s a clearly in their vested interested to not be in that situation. Only problem is there is a seemingly idiotic US administration attempting to address these deficiencies, unless there’s some weird 4D chess play going on, but I’m not convinced it’s that.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#294

Post by quickthrowman »

csense wrote: post #135
asdajksah2123 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are plenty of people saying these tariffs will not work. Work to do what? > But a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support a house with a yard, a car, a non-working spouse and children. Why do you think this has anything to do with tariffs or manufacturing? > How do we get that level of prosperity back? Better pay for the jobs people actually work. Reducing inequality by…

> Work to do what? Bring back manufacturing, and make the US economy work better for workers. > Why do you think this has anything to do with tariffs or manufacturing? Because usually the best-paying jobs were in factories, especially if you didn't have a college degree. A lot of towns in the Rust Belt were economically dependent on a local factory -- think cars or steelmaking. Often, part of the reason these factori…

> The problem and its underlying factors are so obvious to me that I'm constantly amazed to see well-informed, intelligent people who don't seem to understand it.

Do you understand that labor is priced into the cost of the product? Who is going to buy all of these American products made by highly paid unionized workers?

I understand the Rust Belt situation sucks, but people can’t afford to buy everyday consumer goods made with American labor. I’m wearing an American made pair of shoes right now that is 20-30x more expensive than a pair of shoes from Walmart, and even ‘less expensive’ US made shoes like Red Wing are 10-15x as expensive. Now imagine paying 10-30x more for everything, it’s not sustainable.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#295

Post by notact »

dragonwriter wrote: post #180
itake wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO, with the Big Tech boom winding down, what is more valuable for us to do? Manufacturing could prepare us for the next wave, whatever that might be.

> IMHO, with the Big Tech boom winding down, what is more valuable for us to do? Tech isn't winding down; tech, as the sector that draws the most investment based on long-term development, had the biggest response to tight monetary policy designed to slow the entire economy down, but that response demonstrates that tech is where most of the marginal dollar goes. > Manufacturing could prepare us for the next wave, wha…

> And why would “manufacturing”....prepare us for anything else even ignoring that we’d have to regress to do it?

The American production machine (aka manufacturing) is a major component of what won WWII.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#296

Post by myrmidon »

mantas wrote: post #77
imbusy111 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?

Depends on how evaluate what is valuable. E.g. here in europe a lot of people think subsidising local agriculture is not valuable and we should just import cheaper food. On the other hand, a lot of people agree that food security is kinda valuable by itself. And want similar security in more fields. In that sense yes, doing „low tech“ is valuable in the long run.

> In that sense yes, doing „low tech“ is valuable in the long run.

Sure. But how much tax money do you want to throw at entire industries to hide the basic fact that wages are lower elsewhere? Where do you want to take the labor away from? And where do you draw the essential/wasted subsidies boundary line?

Because in my view, Trump tariffs just ignore those very basic questions and don't even attempt to answer them.

It's perfectly reasonable IMO to throw 20 billion a year to agriculture, because that is a very essential sector. But doing the same for the textile industry? Ore/Oil refining? Steelworks? Chemical plants?

I don't wanna subsidies 20 non-essential industries just so that some former fast-food worker can assemble overpriced shoes inside the US (and labor demand from all those industries would drive up wages/costs in the fast-food sector, too, thanks to the Baumol effect).

I'm not against nurturing some important local industries, but Trump tariffs are a complete failure at achieving that IMO.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#297

Post by XorNot »

franktankbank wrote: post #259
elbasti wrote: post #156

Like OP, I work in manufacturing (after 15 years in startup land). I'm not as experienced as him, but I work in manufacturing that makes similar products on both sides of the US/Mexico border. Let me add some thoughts: 1) Capacity, not cost, is the main driver for nearshoring . All things being equal, a manufacturer would rather produce a product in the US than overseas. The cost of modern products is mostly parts &…

The cost of manufacturing your stuff is not labor dependent only because you are probably putting together low cost components made with cheap labor. What if you had to make the spring or the resistor or the little painted metal box? Could you do that without labor being the big cost?

What? How much labor do you think goes into making a spring or a resistor? These are parts which cost fractions of a cent and are cranked out by the tens of millions.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#298

Post by adamrezich »

wormlord wrote: post #150

I think the collapse of the American Empire is no more preventible than the collapse of the British, Spanish, or Roman empires. The issues with the US being the reserve currency has been known for a while now (and was even predicted by Keynes before the Bretton-Woods summit): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma Any discussion of "bringing back manufacturing" that doesn't mention government spending or socia…

This is explicitly referenced in “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”, written November 2024 by Stephen Miran—current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers of United States—which outlines the general ideology and strategies behind the current tariff situation.

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#299

Post by kamaal »

elbasti wrote: post #224
asdajksah2123 wrote: post #109

America does need to bring back manufacturing. Not because a manufacturing job that pays $25/hr is somehow better than a service job that pays $25/hr. The US needs to bring back manufacturing for strategic reasons and in strategic areas. And it needs to have the capability to scale up manufacturing in response to emergencies. But also, importantly, the US doesn't need to do this by onshoring all manufacturing. Near s…

A skilled assembly worker makes closer to $30 or $40 an hour than $25. And that doesn't account for overtime. A skilled tradesman can make $40+. Manufacturing is skilled, well-paid labor that requires commitment, attention, and care. That is why there's a shortage of labor--not because of wages.

>>A skilled assembly worker makes closer to $30 or $40 an hour than $25. And that doesn't account for overtime. A skilled tradesman can make $40+.

In theory. In practice the numbers are way lower.

As some one who has done quite a big time in India IT services firms, have lots of war stories, our Delivery manager would often tell us if US managers only knew adjusted for regular all nighters, whole week on-call hell weeks. Development phases where teams would be working days at stretch in office. The actual per hour rate of an engineer in India is at best $1 - $5 an hour. You just can't bill the customer that way.

Only reason why this even works is India is still poor and people work for anything.

Im sure, adjust for everything(in real practice) manufacturing hourly wages in China aren't all that different and wouldn't be surprised if they are at something like $1 per hour, or something such.

Americans have little idea how much affluence and luxury their ordinary citizen has. Most of the world would do anything even to be poor in the US.

Fair enough to say nobody in the US is signing up to work a hellish factory job for $1/hr anytime soon.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#300

Post by wormlord »

42772827 wrote: post #280
wormlord wrote: post #150

I think the collapse of the American Empire is no more preventible than the collapse of the British, Spanish, or Roman empires. The issues with the US being the reserve currency has been known for a while now (and was even predicted by Keynes before the Bretton-Woods summit): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma Any discussion of "bringing back manufacturing" that doesn't mention government spending or socia…

The American Empire never existed, because it never could. The US made the explicit decision not to occupy the defeated forces after WWII, save for strategic forces in place to protect the interests of the host countries. The US opened its market (the only market of size left and still the largest consumer bases in the world, by far) with no tariffs. What the US got in return was cheap goods and a whole lot of debt.…

> The American Empire never existed

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

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