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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's almost like the whole point is just to enable insider trading on a scale we've never seen before.

Doesn't make much sense, if you're insider trading you profit more if you move one stock a lotlotlot vs all the stocks merely a lot.

He does all the above!

He owns his own social media stock (DJT), where he post this morning "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" to his followers. Attracting more to his social media company.

He has a meme coin in cryptoland, and now via tariff manipulation, he can guide select people to place big bets on the largest derivatives market.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#292
post #169

This man's absurdity never ceases to amaze me. How can his supporters appreciate all this - constant - chaos? Moreover, from the outside (European here), it looks like the US president can literally do whatever he wants without being subject to regulations or facing any consequences - pretty much like a dictatorship. No discussion, no parliament, no opposition taken into account. Crazy.

This is also how it looks from the inside. It's baffling. Apparently all our vaunted checks and balances are useless if one vindictive and incompetent political party controls all three branches of the government.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#295
post #169

This man's absurdity never ceases to amaze me. How can his supporters appreciate all this - constant - chaos? Moreover, from the outside (European here), it looks like the US president can literally do whatever he wants without being subject to regulations or facing any consequences - pretty much like a dictatorship. No discussion, no parliament, no opposition taken into account. Crazy.

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#296
post #33

One thing companies love is lots of uncertainty like this. It keeps their accountants entertained! "Maybe we should build a factory in the US" ... 24 hours later ... "well, not today". What's really amazing is all the muttering from "Very Important Wall Street" type people who are saying that he's insane. Like... with that kind of salary, weren't you paying attention? We've known he wasn't right in the head for a whi…

At this point, I do wonder if long-dated (2-3 months) American-style Puts are a good idea. The weirdness of this administration has created a lot of volatility. With American-style options you are allowed to exercise early, so if you think there's going to be a ton of ups and downs in the next few months, I wonder if this could be lucrative. I might try this just as an experiment with one of the cheaper options.

You can just sell the options. You don't need to exercise.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#297

He's turned the US stock market into the same model as China's - the entire up/down rests on the leaders words. Which makes them fairly uninvestable.

Despite the media tantrum the market only dropped back to early 2024 levels at the most.

>Despite the media tantrum the market only dropped back to early 2025 levels at the most.

A) This is obviously wrong if you spend even 5 seconds looking it up, unless you misspelled "2024"

B) You can't just ignore that they spent several days telling financial journalists it was just a negotiating tactic and leading them to believe this might be peeled back quickly.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#298

So we're all in for another ride like this in 3 months? How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? As nice as this surge is, I'm more focused on upping my cash reserves and bracing myself for a recession.

We are in for this ride, at indefinite intervals, for the next 3.75 years. Well, unless congress grows a collective sack (unlikely) or President Trump comes to his senses on macro economics (past experience suggests this is impossible). > How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? They cannot. This is how you can tell Trump was never a real businessman, but rather a TV host and a celebutante. I…

I joked to a friend that Trump is going to cause a new religion to start. One that makes people pray that today he does what they want (e.g. just shut up and not yell "China, 500% tariffs!")

Or one that makes people pray that one of those cheeseburgers he's been eating finally does something...

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#299
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's definitely going to be another change before 3 months are up.

Yep. He flip flops like a dying fish. There is no way to predict what idea he's going to have 90 days from now.

Responding in good faith to other countries’ willingness to negotiate fair trade terms isn’t exactly flip flopping. In fact he did the same thing with Mexico. If the market was paying attention it would have accounted for this…

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#300

Too late for everyone who spent massively on flying in stock ahead of the tariff deadline. Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls. Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty. Too late for those who lost sales while they figured out pricing. Too early for the people fundraising to build US manuf…

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> think of the investors!

The stock market is a barometer for future predictions.

Stocks going down meant we were on track for everyone to have reduced buying power, which would impact company's bottom lines, which would make them less valuable.

Trying to see this as class warfare between investors and average people is missing the point.

Furthermore: Stocks are up, but yields did not drop. If this holds, it's still not good for the average person. Expect mortgage and auto rates to go up, combined with that 25% tariff on autos that wasn't delayed.

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