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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#291

Post by Thorrez »

ehnto wrote: post #164
edwcross wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most countries still do not mandate that new apartments include charging ports for parking spots. So densely-populated areas will still be plagued with non-EC compatible buildings for decades to come. That's what "city life" mean in several countries.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that. Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate. At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a singl…

Your argument seems to be that cities shouldn't mandate carparks.

Nothing in your argument goes against what I think edwcross's proposal was: "IF an apartment has parking, that parking must have charging."

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#292

Post by itishappy »

bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

Largely agree with your analysis, but wanted to comment on this point:

> Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh

I think we'll see energy prices in the EU continue to rise until geopolitics cool off a bit. I'd be a bit disappointed if the EU looked at the current trends and decided to become even more dependent on oil and gas given how antagonistic the main producers currently are.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#293

Post by Lutger »

kqr wrote: post #202
VladStanimir wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with electric cars is charging infrastructure in cites. An electric bike or scooter can be brought indoors to charge.

The problem with electric cars is that you're still taking a heavy metal box, a large storage chest, a couch, and two recliners with you whether you need them or not. That's always going to be a problem, no matter how well charging works.

I agree. I'm all for phasing out cars completely, but I don't think it is realistic even if there would be support for it.

Next best thing is to move cars to the edges of districts in urban areas. Create big parking spaces, covered in solar panels and equip them with chargers. Design them in such a way that everybody can walk in 5-10 minutes to their home from these parking spaces. In the space that we save this way we can have cycling lanes and trees. Of course, every house should still be reachable by car, if only just for mail delivery, for moving, for doing groceries etc. And people with handicaps should be able to get a permit to park near their houses.

I know one such district near me and its lovely. And one big city in the Netherlands is planning to build a new district in this way for 10000 people, it should be amazing to live there.

When you couple this with drastic improvements to public transport, I think we can move to pretty much ideal cities within a single generation, without abolishing cars and too much inconvenience. It is much easier for newly build districts, but I think this concept can be retrofitted to existing areas very well, if you can find enough parking spaces or garages at least.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#294

Post by bArray »

hristov wrote: post #178
bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs…

> It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero.

I don't mind, I have internet points to spare. I think it's more important we have a proper discussion in this place.

> Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs improved so quickly. That did not mean that PCs were not doing well, in fact PC sales were growing exponentially. And evs do improve fast.

I disagree. I spoke to several dealerships and they simply cannot sell even a few year old EVs, despite them being able to sell 'new' EVs of that manufacturing date. From what I can tell it's that if you've got the money to spend £30k on an EV, why would you take a risk and buy a used one for £20k? There will be limited warranty and no 'classic' mechanic will touch it. If it's out of manufacturer warranty and you develop a battery fault, the battery and fitment can be comparable to the cost you paid for the entire vehicle. This is extremely unlikely to change soon.

> Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded.

I'm not making that point at all. Whatever the market force is, there appears to be a saturation on the near horizon for percentage of sales. It's not an opinion, it's what the numbers suggest.

> Your third point is about rising electricity costs. That sucks for sure, but electricity costs tend to rise together with gasoline costs. It will be very difficult for those two to diverge so that a gas car all of a sudden becomes more economical. The fact that one can make electricity out of oil and oil products tends to mean that electricity costs will not rise very much in comparison to gasoline costs in a short period of time.

Without taxes, combustion engines are more economical (we're not discussing efficiency). Fuel duty and VAT in the UK represents over 50% of the overall cost of fuel [1]. Some portion of that tax is then used to subsidise green energy projects such as wind turbines and solar panels, further reducing the cost of electricity.

[1] https://www.racfoundation.org/data/percentage-uk-pump-price-...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#295

Post by Ray20 »

snowwrestler wrote: post #209
bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption. Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.

>In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming.

This is Western-centrism. In the long run 4 billion people do not go electric because poverty problem solving more important for them, then the global warming problem solving, and another 4 billion people do not consider global warming as a problem at all, the wormer - the better. And under this conditions what the remaining 2 billion people will do is not important at all.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#296

Post by Ray20 »

panstromek wrote: post #247
api wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest stuff is exhausted, just like conventional drilling. We know how to build good EVs now, which means the result of this will be a lot less catastrophic than twenty or thirty years ago. We are lucky the peak oilers back then underestimated.

Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.

>I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total.

My parents remember reading those in 70's

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#297

Post by ghaff »

amrocha wrote: post #272
ghaff wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tokyo has a great subway system (for the most part--there are locations that aren't that well served) and there's good train service between many moderate-sized cities in Japan. But my experience is that, once you get to a city outside of Tokyo, the public transportation options aren't great.

I’ve personally never felt like I needed a car in fukuoka, osaka, or kyoto. What places did you have a bad experience at?

Not really a bad experience but I was able to walk as a tourist to where I wanted to go because the areas were pretty centrally located. The one time I took a bus to somewhere--don't remember location--it wasn't that convenient.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#298

Post by eftpotrm »

toss1 wrote: post #258
eftpotrm wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's incredibly short-sighted, not least because the number of fires per vehicle is orders of magnitude higher for combustion vehicles. I'd be astonished if that made actuarial sense if actually investigated. I've seen and used underground car chargers in multiple European cities. They're definitely viable.

Yes, except ICE fires are a lot easier to put out (possibly partly because of long experience developing tools & techniques vs for electric fires). Electric cars were also banned at most racetracks for years (not sure if that is still true).

I'm a software engineer not a firefighter, but my understanding is that it's significantly an experience thing. Lithium battery fires clearly aren't trivial to deal with and do burn hotter than petroleum fires, but they're also very much less frequent and firefighters are learning how to handle them.

I'm not sure what the specific issue would be with race tracks. The average road course is very open and a very controlled environment; if you had to deal with a car fire, it's probably among the best places to do so, thanks to lessons learned in the blood of previous generations of drivers and track workers.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#299

Post by bArray »

itishappy wrote: post #292
bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

Largely agree with your analysis, but wanted to comment on this point: > Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh I think we'll see energy prices in the EU continue to rise until geopolitics cool off a bit. I'd be a bit disappointed if the EU looked at the current trends and decided to become even more dependent on oil and gas given how antagonistic the main producers currentl…

I won't comment on geopolitics, but I believe (unfortunately) that the scales have tipped on global order.

Irrespective of geopolitics, I suspect we will see electricity prices come down and then go back up, for several reasons:

1. As more EVs charge on the grid, it will become further under strain. Assuming on average every house owns an EV, and that EV power usage is approximately the equivalent of one house, it would be like the population doubles in terms of pressure on the electrical grid. No country has that kind of spare capacity. They will have to cost infrastructure improvements to the electricity bill.

2. As less combustion vehicles are used, combustion-based taxes will reduce, and the green energy initiatives will lose this subsidisation. This loss will be put onto the electricity customers directly.

3. EVs are significantly heavier (cars: ~25%, sedans: ~30%, trucks/SUVs: ~150%) and cause more wear on infrastructure. That wear will directly correlate with the amount of electricity used, and will be the easiest way to introduce a tax to cover these costs. Costs associated to EVs will likely come from unexpected places, like the additional damage caused in a collision [1], and these will also directly correlate with electricity usage.

If anything the UK and EU appear to be near the peak of the EU sales percentage [2], if any Countries will see a decline in sales of EVs as a percentage of overall vehicles it would be those.

[1] https://globalnews.ca/news/9587791/electric-vehicle-weight-s...

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#300

Post by itishappy »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #29
diego_moita wrote: post #25

I have an EV (Kia Niro EV 2024). I don't want ever to go back to gas. Reasons: * the driving experience is just much, much better: punch & acceleration, stability, quietness, etc. * if you charge at home it is a lot cheaper than gas * it is so easy to "fuel": you plug it in when you arrive home and unplug the next morning Edit: also, after I installed solar cells at home, I drive almost for free!

Also, if you get into an EV now, before everyone else does, you can still enjoy a cheap fueling experience for a little while longer

Right, much safer to expect oil and gas to stay consistent because all those EV drivers will be using pure renewable electricity.
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