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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#291

Post by sofixa »

swat535 wrote: post #168
nick__m wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Canadian in a low COL area working somewhere with almost absolute job security, a pension plan and plenty of opportunities for learning (I have a few 3 hours sessions on quantum computer starting next week :D ) I don't care much for the SV startup ... I am here for the selection of interesting articles and the high quality comments when it's not a political thread (those threads have less rational lower quality…

If I were to make an off topic comment and by no means I am picking on you personally, however as another Canadian, I find this general attitude of Canadians towards innovation unsettling and dare I say it's the reason why we are always playing catch up with US. It's also the number one reason why we are bleeding top talent to Americans which results our nation great economy loss. I suppose you can argue that we have…

> You can't expect a nation to develop the next FANG when people's idea of business is purchasing a home in the "suburbs" of Toronto and renting out its basement.

Serious question: do you think having the next FANG is desirable? Many people would say that those companies (Netflix are kind of the exception) are too big, too powerful, stifling competition and innovation, and even deserve to be broken up.

Lots of folks would create their own business, but it takes a special person to dream of world domination and want their company to be a global multi-industry behemoth. As a fun example, contrast successful restaurants in France vs in US. In France, very few restauranteurs branch out with other locations or start their own chain, it's considered a sort of selling out/diluting of quality. That's how you have decades old highly profitable and loved restaurants that are just there and work well. In the US you have to make it big, expand, increase sales, add locations, make it a chain, etc.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#293

Post by sofixa »

cushychicken wrote: post #144
clumsysmurf wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you're looking at working quietly, humbly, but perseverantly for the next 25 years > That never was sustainable, I think Another aspect with this being (un)sustainable is lack of affordable healthcare. I bet many people would take more risks if they didn't have to worry about this aspect of their lives.

The Swedes sure seem to think so. Per capita Swedish entrepreneurship is like 7x the rest of the euro zone, and they’re convinced that it’s that aspect of the social safety net that help prop up that high level of personal risk taking.

It's not the only factor for sure, but it definitely contributes.

Jokingly Swedish and Spanish colleagues have said that weather probably plays a part too - because it's so cold outside, lots of time is spent indoors - some of it with friends socialising or chilling (they even have a word for it, Fika), but not only. So you have lots of opportunities to read, think, explore, experiment.

In contrast, in Spain the weather is often nice and sunny, so you're outside more often, with friends, drinking and eating. You don't really have a lot of alone time at home to think and tinker and innovate.

It's purely anecdotal, but there might be something to it.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#294

Post by rUsHeYaFuBu »

Kye wrote: post #285
rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The act of doing entrepreneurship or stating up is inherently devoid from profit motives I am assuming one is operating in the for-profit sector. If one is NOT operating in that sector then yes it is all the more reasonable to assume that the enterprise should be focused on solving a problem or creating some sort of intangible value. We can observe this is well with the open-source community, where profit motivatio…

VCs aren't banks and startups (in the SV sense) aren't seeking funding to do something tried and true in a new place. A VC invests expecting most of their investments to fail. Banks expect returns, and the things they fund are expected to turn a profit. There are systems in place to claw back assets and funds in the event it fails to do that; and most will, but they're expected to come to the bank with a plan for pro…

I disagree.

The VC is there for profit because they expect the 1 win to overshoot the loss from the other 9.

They expect potential for profit in all the ventures they invest. Period.

And they put forth capital in the amount representative of their belief that a particular venture will turn a profit.

Those they believe have more potential will receive more funding/resources than those ventures that seem less favorable.

They are not, as you put it, performing in a patronage system, because simply they are not interested in losing their capital.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#295

Post by jpatten »

adamc wrote: post #238
jpatten wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I agree. The market for companies that do something in a web browser may be saturated, but outside of that world it feels like there are more opportunities than ever. For example in the space of AI + robotics we’ve barely scratched the surface. I wonder if part of what’s happening may be a generational shift in how people in and around the startup world view work/life balance. In my limited experience, GenZ folk…

That makes sense, but are most of those newer opportunities more straight engineering and not software engineering?

I'm biased but I think the most interesting opportunities involve software that interacts with the physical world in some way. These projects will definitely involve some electrical + mechanical engineering, product design etc., but I'd guess that in terms of number of hours worked, they are still more software engineering than any other single discipline. Probably with a very different set of tools than those used on the web.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#296

Post by spencerflem »

dsugarman wrote: post #218
dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Everyone is so negative, cynical, and bitter on HN now, it's really sad to me. I went through YC in 2012 and I feel like the community here is unrecognizable, the quality of discourse is so low it feels hard to participate.

I joined HN only a few years past you, but given what's being done in the name of tech these days I find it very hard not be cynical

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#297

Post by sofixa »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #14

Concerning > 4. The industry has matured. The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find. I disagree: In my feeling truly innovative opportunities are still rather easy to find. I feel what rather changed is that with VC becoming big and mainstream, investors have become more risk-averse in investing into innovative ideas (that they don't real…

> In my feeling truly innovative opportunities are still rather easy to find.

Such as? Can you name a few?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#298

Post by z0r »

KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

Another reason to work at a startup is if you have subpar grades and the company is willing to take on a risky hire (and pay peanuts for the risk). An alternative for those who don't have the option of working for MANGA. Speaking from personal experience :)

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#299

Post by [deleted] »

pjc50 wrote: post #86
diggan wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory I wouldn't say I'm an old-timer by any metrics, but even back in 2012 when I first discovered and joined HN, I remember it was pretty clear in the community (and people I spoke to around me) you shouldn't go to work at a startup if you were looking for "a lot + safe" money. Sure, you could belong to the 0.001% and work on the n…

Here's a question: what's the list of startups fitting the criteria of - after 2008 Great Financial Crisis - actual startup, not spinoff from larger company - financially successful exit - early non-founder employees made a substantial amount of money?

[deleted]

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#300

Post by georgemcbay »

blindriver wrote: post #215
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

I was the ~15th engineer at a YC startup that had a very big exit. Over 4 years I made less than $80k total (20k/yr) from my options while the founders made high 8 figures. Had I joined BigTech I would have made over $1 M just from stock and I would have worked less. Back during the dot com days, everyone from the secretaries to the chefs to the founders were getting rich but nowadays YC teaches their founders to kee…

> Back during the dot com days, everyone from the secretaries to the chefs to the founders were getting rich

As someone who is old enough to have been working in tech since the 1990s... not really. I mean, it happened on occasion but it wasn't actually a common occurrence even during the heyday of large dot com exits.

The idea of this was massively propped up by overhyping the vanishingly few cases in which it did happen.

I'm not at all refuting your basic point that the "we're all getting lambos" fiction got increasingly disconnected from reality over time, but it was always more apocryphal than real.

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