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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

291–300 of 430 posts

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#291
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> Punishment for financial crimes should be calculated based on the average lifetime earnings of a citizen -- if your victims are folks earning at or below the average wage, and you've scammed 100 lifetimes worth of average earnings, it's as if you've murdered 100 people. This seems like utilitarian ethics. I don't subscribe to these. I'd say most people don't either. So why "should" we calculate punishments for crim…

Some people think it’s just a number but the reality on the ground is that money is literally lifetime.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#292
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> Punishment for financial crimes should be calculated based on the average lifetime earnings of a citizen -- if your victims are folks earning at or below the average wage, and you've scammed 100 lifetimes worth of average earnings, it's as if you've murdered 100 people.

Can this precedent be extended to the money wasted with failed government projects? But maybe on lifetime taxes rather than lifetime earnings, to be fair.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#293
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the major US brokers started doing free trades for stocks and etfs. For Vanguard, most of the index expense ratios are really low, like %.05 percent, but that’s not a trading fee.

How do they make money from you as a customer?

You can Google it, but AUM at scale means .03% is a significant amount of money. There's also uninvested cash that the broker can invest in t-bills and take the spread.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#294
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also short the USD by buying a different currency. BTC would be more like shorting all currencies.

Buying BTC is shorting money printing by your government. Today the only government (that I know of) committed to not printing money is Argentina but they have other issues affecting their economy and therefore inflating their currency. Given that governments don't seem to have desire stop money printing any time soon, buying BTC is sound.

The 2010s called, they want their talking points back. The Fed has been doing quantitative tightening for the last couple of years while raising rates. Only towards the end of last year did they start lowering the rates again, but they are still doing QT. So, there is no, what you call, "money printing", which in itself is a complete misnomer as it ignores the complexities and actual transmission mechanisms of "quantitative easing". In either case, Bitcoin has proven that it offers no hedge against anything; it is merely a risk asset with no intrinsic value that tends to rally with all the other rubbish like meme stocks.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#295
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree with you 100%, I did the same simulations and found the same result. I would suggest a step beyond though, because rebalancing your portfolio is fun year 1-5, but not so fun year 5-20: have a look at e.g. Vanguard retirement target funds. Essentially, it's an ETF with a rebalancing rule included for a specific target date. For instance if you buy the target 2050 (your hypothetical retirement age), the ETF rebal…

My target date 2050 funds have performed 50% less than my S&P 500 and like 30/40% less than my total stock market fund.

You mean VFIFX? What a disaster. My retirement plan put me in that until I realized investment advice for young people is a tax on the inexperienced and vulnerable. VFFSX (S&P 500) does 2x better returns every time. I feel guilty saying it on Hacker News. Like pension funds I bet Vanguard is one of these so-called LPs who give money to VCs like Y Combinator to help ivy league kids follow their dreams. Without these heroes I'm not sure there'd be a startup economy. I just don't want to be the one who pays for it. I think the future Wall-E predicted with Buy N' Large is probably closer to the truth.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#296
post #69

I'm so confused – I thought these guys were the absolute best in blowing the whistle on scammy corporations.

No, it was being investigated by the DOJ and SEC for fraud and scheming just like its sister company Citron and Andrew Left, which has been indicted. So Nate has decided to shutdown before he gets subpoenas to preserve the records.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#297
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…

This reminds me of that Mythbusters episode in which they test what is the fastest strategy in a traffic jam or congestion - switching lanes or keeping your lane. IIRC the result was that it's the same, but zigzagging makes you feel it's faster

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#298
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the major US brokers started doing free trades for stocks and etfs. For Vanguard, most of the index expense ratios are really low, like %.05 percent, but that’s not a trading fee.

How do they make money from you as a customer?

Quite a lot of customers either have cash sitting in the account which they make interest on, or have margin debt which they charge for.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#299
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Hindenburg is scared of being sued, otherwise they wouldn't have been in the business in the first place. Their investigations are extremely thorough, with everything fully documented, mostly from public records, for the specific purpose that if/when they show up in court, they can be confident of the basis of their findings. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/adani-group-threate... P.S. where did…

>I don't think Hindenburg is scared of being sued, otherwise they wouldn't have been in the business in the first place They should be. If doesn't matter how well everything is documented or how above-board the company is when the courts turn into kangaroo courts for a thoroughly corrupt administration. They're right to get out now while they still can.

No, Nate is not afraid of being sued, he is afraid of being indicted for fraud. The difference being that you just pay your way out of lawsuits, but indictments are a bit more serious

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doing nothing saves trading costs which are a major drag. The standard advice for equities investors (at least in the UK) has been to invest in tracker funds for a very long time. it is possible to beat the market. Many years ago I double my money in approx an year - but I invested heavily in I had been covering as a analyst (one of my previous careers) until immediately before. I am more cautious now.

Trading fees are at or near zero in the US now unless you mean capital gains.

You pay the spread and you also have impact in the market.
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