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GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

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Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#291
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those things are easy to detect. It's much less easy to prevent a simple lane change. Some cities have "bus only" lanes, which cars use anyway, but it's easy to detect them since they don't look like busses. How are you going to detect that my car isn't autonomous?

These are pointless concerns. It is a technically trivial problem. We are literally in a thread about self driving cars. If there is a will to enforce it then it will be enforced.

That's what I'm trying to get at--why would there be any will? Why should we all decide to give up a lane to people who are rich (or stupid) enough to buy a brand new car?

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#292
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of FSD videos on YouTube where the driver didn't have to intervene at all on long trips, where the car isn't just following the car in front.

You hit it on the nail, the driver didn't have to intervene but they had to be ready to take over at any time. If FSD could safely operate where you had 10 seconds to take over for level 3, why doesn't Tesla go get it certified for L3 driving. FSD isn't even approved for being a drivers aid(hands off, eyes on) in EU and China because Tesla has not demonstrated that it is safe. Even Blue cruise is approved in EU for c…

Imo Mercedes scored a point with their narrow application of L3 driving, Tesla is playing to win the game.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#293
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird to me to see so many people thinking Tesla is "far behind", when in reality, they're far, far ahead of the competition for a general purpose and scalable self driving solution. Seems like political biases just cloud judgement so much. Youtube now has videos comparing Tesla FSD V13 with Waymo rides on the same routes.

I tried both extensively (have the full FSD package on my Model 3). FSD still feels suicidal in a good day, plain incapable on average. I can’t imagine how someone would compare it to a multi-sensor setup - a single camera can’t match the level of prescience a Waymo or Cruise have. But also as the overall experience is just absurdly different. Waymo was the first tech thing I felt was truly magical in _decades_. Mean…

Interesting, I use FSD for two hours a day and I can relate to none of what you have said.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#294

I'm not sure I want autonomous vehicles to work. It would, inevitably, lead to more cars in cities. Probably faster cars. Both are the opposite of what we need; it isn't just about safety.

People getting to their destination safer, faster, insulated from weather and crackheads, not listening to showtimes, not breathing in subway tunnel air [1], is good for the individual

People consuming less energy to get to their destination [2] is good for society

[1] https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/subway-air-pollution-dispro...

[2] https://www.templetons.com/brad/transit-myth.html

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#295
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo. And even then the definition is not quite clear, because these are safety disengagements from what I can tell, and not disengagements for things like getting stuck because the…

> This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo Tesla doesn't reveal it's miles/disengagement stats, but according to crowdsourced data it's 690-828 miles between critical disengagement [1], which is 2 orders of magnitude worse than the Waymo number you posted, and far below their goal of besting human drivers' abilities. 1. https://elect…

Regardless we are probably about 10-50x the disengagement rate needed. It’s about 1 accidents every 500k miles for a human driver.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#296
post #62
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how Waymo is going to survive the onslaught that is CyberCab. Cheaper to build and operate, more efficient, much faster to build, and deployable across all cities without any manual configuration. The clock is ticking on Waymo, they have 2 years to figure out how to compete otherwise they're cooked. It's very similar to legacy space and internet, the existing players saw SpaceX coming years out, did nothi…

Isn’t it kinda the other way around? I feel like the clock starts the first time a CyberCab gives a paid passenger ride, and that seems like quite a ways out — potentially much more than 2 years. And Waymo has that whole time to bring down their costs of construction, learn how to solve problems of scale, and so on. I agree that a CyberCab would have structural advantages if the service were at parity w/ Waymo, but t…

"Tesla has a software problem, Waymo has a hardware problem" - Andrej Karpathi

Is it easier to ramp to 1M vehicles a year and cut BOM costs by 80%, OR, install more GPUs and collect more data?

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#299
post #236

Pretty bad news for the space as a whole. A decade and a half ago there were a dozen+ companies and tens of billions of VC dollars in the space. People were proudly proclaiming the end of driving. Now all but one of them have folded. My thoughts today are the same as they were back then. Self driving will only be solved city by city and street by street. Local governments will need to create dedicated closed-off auto…

If you're going to block off lanes and install sensors why not just lay track and use streetcars? Rail is way more efficient. This has been a solved problem for the better part of two centuries.

Streetcar rails are terrible for bikes and pedestrians. Dedicated bus lanes are a lot more flexible. A rail car is probably more efficient than a bus, but a bus is a lot less expensive.
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