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Next stop: Miami

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Re: Next stop: Miami

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if it were 10%, though. During the time it took for a droplet to fall 1 metre, you’d have 10cm of water on the floor. I reckon it’d feel quite heavy.

Rain falls at 9m/s, so in a second you'd almost completely fill that space with 900 liters. For the immediate area around you, imagine an olympic pool of water falling roughly every second.

According to NASA, terminal velocity for the largest droplets is ~10 m/s.

Which seems oddly close (in magnitude) to Earth gravitational acceleration (9.8 m/s^2).

Weird!

Re: Next stop: Miami

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Tesla is going to destroy Waymo, they can’t compete You're both wrong. This remains an open question. Tesla has promised a Level 5 product but hasn't delivered; FSD is Level 3. Waymo has a Level 4 product, but it requires an expensive sensor suite. If Tesla can get Level 4 with cameras only, you're right. They win. We currently have no indication they've cracked that. We also have no evidence it's not doable with c…

Slight correction: FSD is Level 2, not Level 3.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#294
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger question is, how can Tesla with it's non-working "full self driving" compete with Waymo's working actual self-driving.

That’s a non issue. FSD is quickly approaching self driving in all scenarios. Waymo is limited specific cities and surface streets. In a way Waymo is behind, they can’t scale fast enough. Their vehicles are far from optimal and expensive. When CyberCab comes around it will blow past Waymo with ease.

Not if CyberCab doesn’t have working software. FSD has a disengagement rate in the doubt digits according to community trackers. They are a long way away from reliability needed to remove the driver. They won’t be “blowing past” anyone for the foreseeable future.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#295
post #23

our service – which already provides over 150,000 trips per week across Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Austin Interesting. That's about 8 million rides per year. I wonder how close they are to being profitable? As soon as they are getting close to being profitable, they will probably scale this up super fast. I don't know how much Google invested into Waymo so far. Something like $10B? If they at some point…

How many rides are there every day in developed countries?

Their internal business case probably has them targeting not 50 million rides per year, but per week… at an absolute minimum

Regardless; at some point specialised vehicles will be developed which are ultra small and lightweight - less than $1,000 to produce - to take care of short downtown rides, for example.

It’s going to be a wild world.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#296
post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not fundamental. We know how to make cars. Other companies are also adding sensors to their existing cars. Waymo is partnering with existing car companies and those have a lot more production capacity than Tesla. I had also hoped you Teslabros would chill with the Tesla hype when Model 3 was supposed to cost 35k but the cheapest model is about 45k, the cheapest Cybertruck was supposed to also be about 35k but in…

Again, Waymo sensors are expensive. Waymo cars are also expensive, 4 seaters with lots of other parts included for manual driving. Unless Waymo is working to design their own car for self driving they’re not going to be able to compete with a much cheaper self driving vehicle. Tesla will flood the market. Also ‘partnering’ you think legacy auto is going to let a middle man like Waymo ‘use’ their cars once self drivin…

A car with no steering wheel, such as the Cybertaxi, is a very far cry from the current FSD. I don't want to die or kill others with a car.

We'll see.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what I saw in SF they're still pretty limited to noob-level driving. I expect driving difficulty will be way more of a barrier than snow.

If twin peaks and downtown are your definition of "noob-level driving", what's normal difficulty? Mumbai rush hour? An active war zone?

I don't think there's a "normal". It's a scale with SF at the very bottom, Mumbai at the top. North West Europe in the middle, etc.

I'm not sure what the point of your comment is. Are you disagreeing that SF is very easy driving? There's very little traffic. The roads are a perfect grid. Nothing ever blocks the lanes. The roads are all very wide so finding a place to stop is easy. Etc. etc.

Most driving in the world is not like that.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#299
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming they stop relying on hd maps, or map everywhere

We're worried that Google, the company that brought us Google street view, can't map the entire world, when they've already done it once?

Can they map it to cm accuracy and cope with the millions of changes that happen every day?

Re: Next stop: Miami

#300
post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're worried that Google, the company that brought us Google street view, can't map the entire world, when they've already done it once?

Can they map it to cm accuracy and cope with the millions of changes that happen every day?

seems to be working in San Francisco, Phoenix, LA, and Austin, so I'm guessing yes
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