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Buy payphones and retire

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Re: Buy payphones and retire

#291

Post by HPsquared »

schmidtleonard wrote: post #128
jayd16 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> more people will lose than win. It's not necessarily zero sum. If money is invested to produce value instead of simply moving it around then everyone can benefit.

Yes, though it's important to note that the economic notion of value is weighted according to wealth and therefore more than a bit weird. Feeding an orphan creates no "value" because they have no money to pay you with, while merging companies into a mega-monopoly that can shake down the rest of the economy creates loads of "value" because it pays rich investors huge dividends. Of course, there are plenty of honest wa…

This kind of thing is best analyzed using the subjective theory of value.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#292

Post by fragmede »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #271
andrewla wrote: post #57

The concept of "passive income" is almost a scissor concept. Or maybe only if you couple it with the categorical imperitive. On the one hand, it's so obviously true that it would be great to have passive income. Draw the salary you're drawing now, with some growth, and not have to work. On the other hand, if everyone had access to this capability then society and civilization would grind to a halt. People make things…

I like your point. When I see the term "passive income", I immediately convert it to "rent seeking". _Some_ amount of rent seeking will always exist in any capitalist system, but there is a limit where it becomes inefficient. However, most capitalist systems are self-adapting enough , such that when too much of one type of rent seeking appears, eventually new joiners are priced out with zero or negative returns. A si…

The original definition that's been hopelessly muddied (language evolves, so eh; I find the etymology interesting) of rent-seeking was that of powerful business men using politics to get benefits. Like a subsidy for their product or some regulation passed that favors them.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#293

Post by blagie »

aiforecastthway wrote: post #173
miki123211 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the version of passive income where you don't do anything productive at all, ever, and just put up some initial capital in exchange for even more money back, is always a scam No, that's just investing. This is how savings accounts work, this is how CDs work, this is how treasury bonds work, this is how passive investing (e.g. via ETFs on index funds) works, and there are many, many more examples. If you're keeping…

> No, that's just investing. Yes. Investing is passive income. If you have $20M and your lifestyle requires no more than $800K/yr of income taxed a waaaaay lower rates than the working stiffs pay on the same, then a 4% return more than suffices to live off of income that is waaaaay more passive than most passive income frauds even come close to promising. The difference between "investing" and "passive income" is mos…

Investing is passive income, but most passive income isn't investing.

* A way to generate passive income, for example, are royalties on a book you wrote.

* Semi-passive income might be $50k speaking gigs after e.g. being the PotUS.

In a financed world, perhaps I can make a financial instrument out of future royalties, but for most people, it's not the same.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#294

Post by rsynnott »

crooked-v wrote: post #40
hyperhopper wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why are there so few? And containing such a small variety of goods? In Japan anywhere from a busy subway to a remote park, there will be rows of vending machines everywhere, with more varieties of sodas, coffees, soups, ice creams, candies, hell even clothes or meat! And those are just the common types. You're never far from what you want in an automated fashion. Why are we so behind in America when there seemin…

There are many huge contextual differences between the US and Japan when it comes to vending machines, but the most obvious one is that Japan is eminently walkable, while the US is so pedestrian-unfriendly that there's no guarantee that people will even be around your row of vending machines in the first place.

I assume there's something else going on, as outdoor vending machines are not a particularly common sight in most walkable cities in Europe, say.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#295

Post by smatija »

hifromwork wrote: post #79
crooked-v wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many huge contextual differences between the US and Japan when it comes to vending machines, but the most obvious one is that Japan is eminently walkable, while the US is so pedestrian-unfriendly that there's no guarantee that people will even be around your row of vending machines in the first place.

I agree, but in my very walkable european neighbourhood I don't see any vending machines either (except on the train stations, in waiting rooms, etc). Granted, there are small shops every corner, so vending machines don't feel necessary, but sometimes it would be useful to have some.

In Slovenia local farmers started using vending machines for homegrown milk, eggs, pig fat and similiar produce. While they were very rare just a few years ago, now they are very commonplace, even in smaller towns.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#296

Post by Jach »

Dalewyn wrote: post #280
Jach wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a roadtrip a few years ago I was struck by the design of a row of vending machines at a rest stop: entirely walled off / caged off by a solid metal security mesh, with small holes to just barely let people operate them. Very much like this picture: https://s3-media0.fl.yelpcdn.com/bphoto/NudVpPKiq1AsWL1CSAa_... So I agree crime and theft is a big factor. But it's not enough of an explanation, as other high-trust s…

Here's something to blow your mind: Out in the countryside, farmers have stalls where they put some of the day's harvest for sale. It's completely unmanned without surveillance and operates on the honor system; customers leave cash in a nearby container and take the produce they bought. Yes, it works beautifully because there are literally no bloody assholes uncivilized enough to be thieves. Vending machines are abun…

The countryside honor system is still present in certain parts of the US (sometimes it's even present in suburban neighborhoods!), it doesn't blow my mind. (I also have living memory of how good things used to be in various places, too.) Similarly, there are still many places where a vending machine will remain unmolested. What did surprise me once while visiting Tokyo was that in several game centers the extra prizes to restock the claw/UFO machines are often just stored... on top of the machine in a bag or basket. Sure, most Japanese are too short to reach and steal them, but foreigners frequent those places too, and yet people behave.

My favorite vending machine anecdote comes from HN several years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15412395 The pictures from the submitted post are worth revisiting too, if they were put up today people would think they were AI generated: https://web.archive.org/web/20171004222639/http://www.spoon-...

Did you know there's an anime where the main character dies and gets reincarnated into a fantasy world as a vending machine? https://myanimelist.net/anime/52619/Jidou_Hanbaiki_ni_Umarek... I got a handful of episodes in while it was airing, I'm now reminded to go back and finish the season maybe next month, but it was quite a bit more charming and interesting than I gave it credit for from the premise. Indeed, there is a lot of love for vending machines.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#297

Post by mauvehaus »

Dalewyn wrote: post #280
Jach wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a roadtrip a few years ago I was struck by the design of a row of vending machines at a rest stop: entirely walled off / caged off by a solid metal security mesh, with small holes to just barely let people operate them. Very much like this picture: https://s3-media0.fl.yelpcdn.com/bphoto/NudVpPKiq1AsWL1CSAa_... So I agree crime and theft is a big factor. But it's not enough of an explanation, as other high-trust s…

Here's something to blow your mind: Out in the countryside, farmers have stalls where they put some of the day's harvest for sale. It's completely unmanned without surveillance and operates on the honor system; customers leave cash in a nearby container and take the produce they bought. Yes, it works beautifully because there are literally no bloody assholes uncivilized enough to be thieves. Vending machines are abun…

We have honor box farm stands in the USA too. Not counting coolers with eggs alone, there are probably half a dozen between our home and my wife's office.

This despite the fact that we have numbskulls and halfwits in the area. Last year someone knocked down all the mailboxes on the nearest paved road. We also picked up an absolutely staggering number of Twisted Tea cans from the side of the road last Vermont Green Up Day.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#298

Post by blagie »

immibis wrote: post #145
miki123211 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the version of passive income where you don't do anything productive at all, ever, and just put up some initial capital in exchange for even more money back, is always a scam No, that's just investing. This is how savings accounts work, this is how CDs work, this is how treasury bonds work, this is how passive investing (e.g. via ETFs on index funds) works, and there are many, many more examples. If you're keeping…

If everyone does it, the world grinds to a halt and everyone dies.

It doesn't.

Passive income usually requires a burst of highly-productive time at the beginning.

If you invent a machine which does farming with no human labor, and I invent a factory which makes your machines with no human labor, and so on down the line:

1) Human productivity jumps to infinity

2) No one needs to work

3) We all collect passive income, growing exponentially*

Most passive income is some subset of that. If you write a book read by millions, or invent something saving lives, that's continuing to generate real value for the world. Even if you work very, very hard, while scrimping and saving, so you don't have to work later, everything works out okay (so long as there are kids willing to work hard).

* With different exponents, until we have a class of ultrarich and ultrapoor, until the revolution, with either the poor masses being killed by high tech, or the rich by the human masses

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#299

Post by thrance »

wezdog1 wrote: post #241
thrance wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But wouldn't it be even better if the farmer bought the tractor on a loan? Now the farmer keeps the entirety of his production and the guy that would have rented the tractor also has to work, further improving society.

Where does the interest go

To the person that made the loan, to compensate them for the risk they took. No need for anyone to profit from the work of another forever.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#300

Post by lotsofpulp »

opo wrote: post #213
lotsofpulp wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The S&P500 was flat or negative from 2000 to 2012. And this isn't unusual. At its worst, 1999 to 2009, SP500 total annual return was only -0.2%, per dqdyj. Thats really good considering the upside (which has since been realized), and it shows that the government is willing to pull out all the stops if the market is down just -0.2%. > How does the government decreasing the purchasing power help old people? Old peopl…

>At its worst, 1999 to 2009, SP500 total annual return was only -0.2%, per dqdyj. That might not be adjusting for inflation. According to the calculator on moneychimp, with adjusting for inflation, the cagr for the S&P 500 over that time period was -3.42%. (i.e. $1.00 shrank to 71 cents if invested in S&P 500 Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2009. >...and it shows that the government is willing to pull out all the stops if the…

We don’t need to adjust for inflation since we are comparing nominal returns across the board.

What other investment options were there from 1999 to 2009 that had a similar risk profile (implicit backstop by government), but also unbounded upside (unlike fixed income options)?

> I imagine the potential collapse of the financial markets, was maybe a more important cause of monetary and fiscal policy around that time.

Because the businesses are so big ABs interconnected now. If a mom and pop family business goes out of business, that’s a few people who need to scramble, they’re not politically influential enough for a bailout.

If multiple SP500 companies are at risk, then I am going to bet Congress is going to shift into high gear to find a solution.

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