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The Intelligence Age

ia.samaltman.com

291–300 of 447 posts

Re: The Intelligence Age

#291

> Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale I'm not an AI skeptic at all, I use llms all the time, and find them very useful. But stuff like this makes me very skeptical of the people who are making and selling AI. It seems like there was a really sweet spot wrt the capabilities AI…

Yes you are correct that jumps in intelligence were enabled by exponential increases in scale. That makes me more bullish on AI, not less. It suggests that we can continue exponentially scaling compute like we have done for the past few decades, and also get intelligence improvements from it.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As large as the absolute largest models are today, they are still microscopic compared to our brains. A 1.7T param model would only store an actual total of about 850 GB if fully saturated (4 bits of information per weight estimated for bf16 transformers), a lot less than a human brain with 150T synapses running in full analog precision. We need to scale the current gen of models at least another 10-100x to even reac…

Comparing a human brain in these terms makes it incredibly obvious how inefficient the human brain actually is. A 1.7T model can answer questions about practically anything. You say a human brain has 150T params. So what? It struggles to give masterful answers in even 1 domain, let alone dozens/hundreds. We need to stop comparing parameters and synapses as if they actually matter, because AFAIK, they really don't.

Well once again it turns out that what is hard for people is easy for computers, and vice versa. The things we go to college for 6 years for they can (relatively) master in a week of pretraining. We are optimized to smartly kill things, eat them, and reproduce, that's what machines will beat us at last lol. Right now a human expert is still obviously better in depth, but nowhere close in breadth. Probably not for much longer though, at least on the historical time scale.

And granted a lot of parts of the human brain are dedicated to specific jobs that are entirely nonexistent in a normal LLM (kinematics, vision, sound, touch, taste, smell, autonomic organ control) so the actual bit we should be comparing for just language and reasoning is way smaller. Still the brain is pretty efficient inference energy wise, it's like the ultimate mixture of experts, extreme amounts of sparse storage and most of it is not computed until needed. The router must be pretty good.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#293
post #23

> If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people. This seems to be the key of the piece to me. It's his manifesto for raising money for the infra…

> to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips)

Not really. The problem is that learning requires scale, mostly of data. That scale places AI providers at the nexus of value, with OpenAI as the presumptive market organizer and leader. Reducing compute costs would just mean they can capture more of the value. Data costs orders of magnitudes more than compute because it requires curation, so even if individual developers could get compute, they can't get data, so size/access matters.

That's good for this community and could be good for the state of the art and the overall potential contributions of AI. And more paying customers could be good for OpenAI. But it won't put AI in front of non-paying customers/developers, unless their value is otherwise harvested.

> I don't want ASI to only be affordable to the ultra rich.

As a developer or consumer?

And you don't mean it's ok if AI is only affordable for the moderately rich, do you? I agree it's hard to state which developers/people/customers should be subsidized. Generally we subsidize education but not profit or war. Sometimes culture. Companies will subsidize complementary goods and input factors. Otherwise? Not much history of benevolent subsidy.

AI has as much potential to shape society as freeways and the automobile did in the US, but few understand how, and I've seen no plans on point.

With electric energy networks and transportation, the central government has a role in reducing hostaging by hold-out's. With education, states have an incentive to attract and build talent (albeit now reduced with trans-national outsourcing and remote work). But otherwise, it's private enterprise and resource-weighted customers.

Changing that is not really Sam Altman's job. His job is to deliver that value, sooner rather than later. Most would be uncomfortable with AI overlords expressing opinions on cultural values or economic distributions to be imposed.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#294

OAI's achievements are amazing. But here's a bit of a skeptical take: cheap human-style intelligence won't have a huge impact because such intelligence isn't really a bottleneck today. It's a cliche that the brightest minds of the age are dedicated to selling more ads or shuffling stock ownership around at high velocity. Anyone who's worked at a big tech company knows the enormous ratio of talent to real engineering…

To raise $1e7, you have to be able to convince VCs that you can make at least $1e9. They want 100x returns from their winners, and don't care about anything else in their portfolio.

If instead you only need $1e3 to build it, it doesn't have to make as much money. I could just fund it out of pocket

Re: The Intelligence Age

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As large as the absolute largest models are today, they are still microscopic compared to our brains. A 1.7T param model would only store an actual total of about 850 GB if fully saturated (4 bits of information per weight estimated for bf16 transformers), a lot less than a human brain with 150T synapses running in full analog precision. We need to scale the current gen of models at least another 10-100x to even reac…

Comparing a human brain in these terms makes it incredibly obvious how inefficient the human brain actually is. A 1.7T model can answer questions about practically anything. You say a human brain has 150T params. So what? It struggles to give masterful answers in even 1 domain, let alone dozens/hundreds. We need to stop comparing parameters and synapses as if they actually matter, because AFAIK, they really don't.

OTOH humans can e.g. walk on two feet and drive a car.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's amazing how he can imagine wars being fought over AI but not wars being fought over resources needed to "build enough infrastructure."

Taking it a step further, building that infrastructure may contribute somewhat directly to limiting the other resources actual wars are being fought over. This man needs to get out of his own head.

I think it’s misunderstanding the guy’s whole deal to expect truth or reality to be major factors in his writing. “Sell, sell, sell!” is the goal above all else. Sell whatever he’s invested in today. Sell himself. Sell!

Re: The Intelligence Age

#297

> If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable None of that shared prosperity was freely given by the Sam Altmans of the world, it was hard won by labor organizers and social movements. Without more of that, the progress from AI will continue the recent trend of wealth accumulating in the hands of a few. The idea that everyone will somehow prosper equally f…

Labor organizers mostly make things worse for laborers. Capitalism has brought much prosperity. "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest"

Re: The Intelligence Age

#298
post #280
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are comparing AI to alchemy, a subject that after thousands of years still isn’t delivering on its promises (even with the assistance of modern technological magic), then surely you can see how that’s something of a self-own.

The transmutation of uranium into plutonium and the synthesis of medically useful isotopes proceeds successfully.

That's not alchemy.

When we are successfully turning base metals into gold, hit me up.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#299
This morning I was reviewing some code that a JR engineer submitted. It had this wild logical conditional with twists and turns, negations, and weird property naming..

o1-preview perfectly evaluated the conditional and determined that, hilariously, it would always evaluate to true.

o1 untangled the spaghetti, and, verifying that it was correct was quick and easy. It created a perfect truth table for me to visualize.

This is a sign of things to come. We are speeding up.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#300
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sam’s ambitions are way beyond “salary”.

It's a quote from Upton Sinclair from an era where you generally had to have a profitable business and employees before you had investors.

There were many ventures in the past that got investors without a current profitable going concern. Oil & mining speculation, chartering boat crews to go on exploration expeditions and more.
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