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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

fortune.com

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Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#291

Post by ra7 »

martythemaniak wrote: post #244
zellyn wrote: post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

I think a lot of people have uncritically been repeating Waymo's marketing talking points for so long they've started mistaking it for "consensus" or even worse "truth". Waymo's tech is impressive and it works, but that doesn't mean it is the only way to make it work. The Tesla/Waymo approaches are far far more alike than they are different, so the whole debate is about very little. The question of Camera vs LIDAR+Ca…

> Say you're driving down the road and there's a bit of construction, there's a guy holding SLOW/STOP sign directing traffic. LIDAR will tell you it's a hexagonal sign, but it can't tell you what it says, you need a camera to read the sign and tell you what it says.

But Waymo never said you don't need cameras. Hell, they have 29 cameras in each vehicle compared to Tesla's 8.

Your point about their approaches being more alike than different is somewhat true, but you wrongly attribute the LiDAR vs camera debate to Waymo marketing. It's Elon and Tesla fans who started it and incessantly repeat it even to this day. Most rational folks say use whatever you can to get it working (which Waymo did) and optimize later.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#292

Post by danielrhodes »

83 wrote: post #261
boulos wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclosure: I work for Waymo. We handle both dense fog and heavy rain on the latest vehicles. The best blog post is probably https://waymo.com/blog/2021/11/a-fog-blog/ but you can find a lot of videos in the rain. Snow and very cold weather is a challenge for sensor cleaning. We've done some testing in both NYC and Buffalo ( https://waymo.com/blog/2023/11/road-trip-how-our-cross-count... ) to collect data.

I'm rooting for you, but I live in snow country and always have a chuckle any time someone says self driving will be ready soon. There's so many situations that need to be handled when driving in winter and some of them I can't even imagine how you'd address in software. Winter here changes daily between - no road lines visible - snow packed into ice randomly making the road a a camouflage pattern - snow is fresh/dee…

I’m not saying I would trust getting into a Waymo now in those conditions, but I also wouldn’t assume the same things that are difficult for humans will be difficult for self driving. I’m optimistic these hurdles can be overcome.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#293

Post by vineyardmike »

dataflow wrote: post #257
zellyn wrote: post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

> IIUC, Cruise has pretty much also always been legit? https://www.forbes.com/sites/cyrusfarivar/2023/12/04/judge-a... Not sure if you count this as "legit" or not, but I haven't seen similar incidents from Waymo. (Perhaps I've just missed them - if so, links welcome!)

Lying to judges seem like a time honored tradition from big companies. Google has done it, Tesla has done it. Doesn’t make it less legit.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#294

Post by itsoktocry »

leesec wrote: post #266
zellyn wrote: post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

Lol Tesla has made significant progress and doesn't show much sign of slowing down. There's no reason to think there approach can't work at this point. People go weeks without intervention.

>People go weeks without intervention

Well, being as how people get to pick and choose when they use it, and that the driver has to remain vigilant at all times, I'm not surprised.

But this is easy to test: stick random people in the car and go to random locations with FSD, see how it works. Why haven't they demonstrated this yet?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#295

Post by 83 »

danielrhodes wrote: post #292
83 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm rooting for you, but I live in snow country and always have a chuckle any time someone says self driving will be ready soon. There's so many situations that need to be handled when driving in winter and some of them I can't even imagine how you'd address in software. Winter here changes daily between - no road lines visible - snow packed into ice randomly making the road a a camouflage pattern - snow is fresh/dee…

I’m not saying I would trust getting into a Waymo now in those conditions, but I also wouldn’t assume the same things that are difficult for humans will be difficult for self driving. I’m optimistic these hurdles can be overcome.

Oh I'm also optimistic they can be overcome, I'm just less optimistic on the timeline. I'll be pleasantly surprised if self driving can handle winter a few decades from now.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#296

Post by dataflow »

vineyardmike wrote: post #293
dataflow wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IIUC, Cruise has pretty much also always been legit? https://www.forbes.com/sites/cyrusfarivar/2023/12/04/judge-a... Not sure if you count this as "legit" or not, but I haven't seen similar incidents from Waymo. (Perhaps I've just missed them - if so, links welcome!)

Lying to judges seem like a time honored tradition from big companies. Google has done it, Tesla has done it. Doesn’t make it less legit.

> Lying to judges seem like a time honored tradition from big companies. Google has done it, Tesla has done it. Doesn’t make it less legit.

"Lying to judges" (do you mean withholding material information from regulators?) is not something I'm aware of Waymo doing. (Again, links welcome -- and remember Waymo is not Google.) Nor is it a binary thing. It's one thing to cover up e.g. anti-competitive behavior in the free market, but quite another thing to cover up how you might've actually killed a person on the street.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#297

Post by 83 »

SoftTalker wrote: post #285
83 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm rooting for you, but I live in snow country and always have a chuckle any time someone says self driving will be ready soon. There's so many situations that need to be handled when driving in winter and some of them I can't even imagine how you'd address in software. Winter here changes daily between - no road lines visible - snow packed into ice randomly making the road a a camouflage pattern - snow is fresh/dee…

What will happen is that you just won't be able to go anywhere until the roads are cleared. That is probably not a bad thing, it will allow plow trucks to clear the roads more quickly without having to navigate around people driving (or trying to drive) on the uncleared roads, spun out/stuck vehicles, crashes, etc.

We're not really at self driving if the solution for poor conditions is "don't drive".

Snow drifts in the wind, side roads don't get regularly plowed, and conditions change rapidly so unless they can handle the majority of the list above then they won't be able to handle winter period.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#298

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

jefftk wrote: post #233
zellyn wrote: post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

> I find it hard to believe that the Tesla and Auto Manufacturer positions aren’t knowingly deceptive. The auto manufacturer approach is also showing progress. In CA and NV you can buy and operate a Mercedes with Drive Pilot, which is Level 3 certified. In the right (very restrictive conditions which essentially come down to "sitting in highway traffic on your commute") you legally do not have to pay attention to the…

There's still plenty that can go wrong in a hurry even if you are just streaming along in lane. All it takes is for something non-routine to happen such as a car ahead reacting to an animal, or swerving as the driver reaches for something or spills coffee on themself, or a wheel come off a car (I've seen it happen to a car in front of me), or a car crosses the center median in opposite direction (which left my ex-boss hospitalized for 6 months).

I'd personally never trust an autopilot unless it's either backed by human-level AI which has also had years of driving experience, or it's in some very highly constrained environment (maybe airport bus going from gate to plane). Out on a highway or public road system is the most unpredictable environment possible.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#299

Post by lofenfew »

cjensen wrote: post #267
martythemaniak wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people have uncritically been repeating Waymo's marketing talking points for so long they've started mistaking it for "consensus" or even worse "truth". Waymo's tech is impressive and it works, but that doesn't mean it is the only way to make it work. The Tesla/Waymo approaches are far far more alike than they are different, so the whole debate is about very little. The question of Camera vs LIDAR+Ca…

Camera vs Lidar+Camera is not a narrow question. Cameras lack sufficient dynamic range to work in many situations, and therefore cannot alone be used for a real self-driving solution where the driver naps. Your example of needing to read a stop sign isn't a great example. At least in North America, a hexagonal sign is always a stop sign. A better example of your point would be a speed limit sign.

>At least in North America, a hexagonal sign is always a stop sign.

the back of a stop sign is often a slow sign, or a do not enter sign. The same shape of sign, but different meaning from different directions. The slow variant is often held by construction workers, hence the GPs example.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#300

Post by grecy »

krisoft wrote: post #255
grecy wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> at the end of 2020 It seems silly to analyze a 4 year old version of something that is changing extremely rapidly. Both Waymo and FSD have come a very long way since 2020.

You are misunderstanding the quote. FSD 12.3 is the current version of Tesla's self driving software. The article is comparing that current version of FSD to Waymo's 2020 state and saying that Tesla's self driving code today is worse than Waymo's 4 year ago. That is, according to the quote, Tesla is more than 4 years behind.

Ah, gotcha, thanks. You are right, I misunderstood
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