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Taking Risk

tomblomfield.com

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Re: Taking Risk

#291

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

DeathArrow wrote: post #258
mushufasa wrote: post #182

My pithy take on the most important explanatory factors here: 1) EU/UK startups lack a big enough common market to sell into to go from 100 to 1,000,0000 relative to US and Chinese startups. 2) Tax laws in many EU countries significantly limit founders' exit opportunities and magnitude of personal financial success. This "tail wags to the dog" because of risk/reward: if the ultimate reward is not high, a founder can'…

>1) EU/UK startups lack a big enough common market to sell into to go from 100 to 1,000,0000 relative to US and Chinese startups. Are US companies selling only in US market? Why can't EU/UK startups address global markets?

It's much easier to start in your home market, get experience there and then expand.

Also, the US is basically the best market for everything (fortunately or unfortunately), so even if you start in Latvia, the next market you enter will probably be the US.

This is because it's relatively open and has lots of people speaking a common language, with a (mostly) common regulatory system so you can spread the setup costs over a much larger market.

Compare to starting in Ireland and then hitting the UK, France, Germany, Poland etc. Each of those countries will incur startup costs but the market size is smaller so you'll make less profit (all other things being equal).

Re: Taking Risk

#292

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

CalRobert wrote: post #126
ilikerashers wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While Ireland has some cash these days, it was a poor place until joining the EU. If you wanted to do well, you emigrated. This is still the case pretty much.

Certainly, though I wonder if part of the mindset I encountered was a result of any surplus wealth being taken by the landowners for a good 800 years or so. If you don't get to enjoy the fruits of your labour, why try?

100%.

Ireland is a post-colonial society in many respects.

My generation are the first generation to be able to get a job in Ireland (and even then most of us can't afford a house). It takes time for culture like that to be worked through.

See also, Irish people's opinions of our most successful export, Bono.

(he's a dick btw, because of the tax dodging though, not because of his success).

Re: Taking Risk

#293

Post by az00123 »

buynlarge wrote: post #181
matwood wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is a giant version of the Cayman Islands. It's a big bank providing financial services to rich people while keeping them anonymous. Everything else is secondary. And Brexit only made it worse.

On the other hand, the UK is one of the safest countries in the world, is full of kind people, has a general abundance of food, gives workers a relatively large number of days off in a year, has a functioning police force and takes care of sick people and those who can't work for whatever reason. Of course it is not perfect. The people of Britain may not have huge bank accounts, but this is partly because they collec…

I don’t know about the UK as a whole, but London is not safe at all. I wouldn’t call it inherently dangerous for the average person either, like some places in the world. But it was strange to go home last year and talk to the teenagers on my estate, who were now selling hard drugs, had stab/bullet wounds, easy access to guns and considered this the norm. All 16 years old or under. It was never this bad previously. I hear from friends petty crime is rife, people riding scooters and bikes snatching phones with impunity.

Re: Taking Risk

#294

Post by em-bee »

K0balt wrote: post #287
Aromasin wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't the one to downvote you for reference, but to be clear, moving out and abandoning my partner and country so I can put together a half-baked MVP and give away equity for that hard work isn't what I, nor anyone else on this forum I suspect, would consider a good trade. I assume others are downvoting you because your comment sounds like you're running a scam operation. If you want to conflate running away from…

I think i overdid the hypothetical , I’ll agree with you on that. Certainly the need to move is extreme for many people. It’s never been much of an issue for Me so I think I failed to adjust that to most peoples attitudes about travel. It still reflects a bit though, and in my limited experience it holds true that the successes I have been either involved with or adjacent to have been accomplished by either money in…

i kind of understand your perspective. i could never hold a job where i didn't enjoy working either. however over the years i have mellowed quite a bit, and learned to compromise because i realized there is more to life than only doing work i enjoy. also, there are more dimensions to enjoying work. in particular, there are always some aspects of work that are not fun and you have to find a balance.

from your proposal the main problem was living in an isolated area. i have lived in many places around the globe, but the key feature of every place was that it was not isolated. i just moved my whole family to get away from a place that ended up being to isolated. and for a startup i would move to a place where it is easy to find and hire new talent to grow the company. and the funding would have to be enough to pay for my whole family too.

i was part of a startup before, but i simply could not afford to stay because of the lack of funding. i totally would have continued if i could have funded myself.

in fact that's what i am doing now. using my savings to build a new business. it's a struggle though. the usual problem of a tech person failing to find customers. but i'll continue until i run out of money.

Re: Taking Risk

#295

Post by veunes »

kavalg wrote: post #224
csomar wrote: post #220

This is the most useless post one can read about some guy who is happy with his life and complain others are not doing things that he is thinking about... > just days before my start date at McKinsey, which finally gave me the confidence to choose the startup over a prestigious job offer. I highly doubt many people are getting offers at McKinsey and getting funded at the same time. The dude talks about risk but he li…

Yes, to get a sense of risk taking, I'd rather hear many stories by risk takers that failed than one story from the guy that succeeded.

Indeed. Learning from failure can sometimes provide more valuable insights than hearing about success alone.

Re: Taking Risk

#296

Post by veunes »

jasonkester wrote: post #232
kavalg wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, to get a sense of risk taking, I'd rather hear many stories by risk takers that failed than one story from the guy that succeeded.

That’s often the same person. I had a dozen failures before I struck on the sass product that retired me in my forties. You try, you learn, you improve, and eventually something might work. Or you don’t try, keep your safe job and work until you’re 70 like everyone else.

> That’s often the same person.

It really well said. Without a failures it's hard to appreciate the success

Re: Taking Risk

#297

Post by throwaway2037 »

joecool1029 wrote: post #223
throwaway2037 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> none of the failures that have happened in the US in the past few years I assume you are referencing Silicon Valley Bank, which wasn't a small bank and wasn't run by young, inexperienced leaders. In the US, community banks would be 10% the size of SVB at its peak (before the run). Except SVB, can you name any other failures? And were they due to young, inexperienced leaders? I cannot name a single one.

Republic Bank just failed in the past month (not to be confused with the First Republic Bank that failed last year). This newest Republic failure was a bank started by the guy who created Commerce Bancorp which was purchased by TD Bank. The guy is a piece of work: https://archive.is/DwtAx (I wouldn't say he is young but really not the guy for the job given the history and the banking environment now)

First Republic Bank didn't fail. It was bought by JPMorgan. No customers lost any money.

Re: Taking Risk

#298

Post by simne »

DeathArrow wrote: post #15

It would be more interesting to not consider just US and UK, but the whole world. Lots of new startups might come from Asia. Eastern European startup scene is interesting, also.

> Eastern European startup scene is interesting

There something weird happen.

Ukraine, poorest country in Europe, before war few years generated at least one unicorn per year, and none unicorns from Poland happen these time.

Re: Taking Risk

#299

Post by vouwfietsman »

gambiting wrote: post #288
vouwfietsman wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a lot of research doesn't get published in English, so somehow it doesn't "count". As it shouldn't. I am from a non-English speaking country myself, and I cannot begin to tell you how senseless it is to cling to native languages for any serious work. It's creating an arbitrary barrier to collaboration just for pride or convenience. English is the lingua-franca (lol) of the world, just embrace it and stop being prou…

It's not about pride - it's about the reality of the fact that most academics do not have a sufficient command of English to write research papers in that language. We can lament this fact if you wish, but somehow it seems more important to me that a mathematics or chemistry researcher is good at those categories and not necessarily at writing in English. Again, you can think this is their loss - and maybe it is, but…

> the fact that most academics do not have a sufficient command of English to write research papers in that language.

Because the academics are not taught in English, which they should be, because they will need to command English sufficiently if they wish to participate in the global science community. Again, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

> the quality of their research isn't any worse just because it isn't done in English

No but the quality of their work as a researcher is, because communication and collaboration is a part of research.

> The obvious solution to this is translation

No its not, because translation is exactly the meaningless overhead I was talking about. It does not aid in collaboration because its still a one-way process, and its lossy.

Re: Taking Risk

#300

Post by buynlarge »

yomly wrote: post #273
buynlarge wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, the UK is one of the safest countries in the world, is full of kind people, has a general abundance of food, gives workers a relatively large number of days off in a year, has a functioning police force and takes care of sick people and those who can't work for whatever reason. Of course it is not perfect. The people of Britain may not have huge bank accounts, but this is partly because they collec…

Please define safe? The stabbings and acid attacks suggest otherwise Please define functioning police force? The fact the police had to remember that turning up to burglaries is a good thing suggests otherwise Please define takes care of sick people? The fact that ambulance response times were so slow they couldn't save cardiac arrests suggests otherwise No offence but all those assertions sound like the UK 20+ years…

I am curious what the UK was like 20 years ago, can't say I was very aware around that time. Would love to hear your thoughts on how and why its gotten worse.

I think its easy to shit on the UK at the moment because we're in this period of relative decline. The point I was trying to make was that in absolute terms, it's still a great place with a lot of upsides, it just takes more work to realise it and even more work to be grateful despite of it all.

Going from 5 to 4 hurts, going from 3 to 4 feels good. Either way, you're still at 4. It's on the people of Britain to recognise that 4 is still OK, better than the 2 that many countries experience, and better than the 1 of fighting lions and being murdered by your fellow tribesman because he's bigger than you.

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