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EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

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Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#291

Post by sofixa »

jimnotgym wrote: post #105
sunshine-o wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the end it is always the same type of scheme. The search engine story made the news because it sounded so ridiculous. The EU (and its members) does that for every key technology. For cloud they did it at least 2 or 3 times. I vaguely remember a bunch of alternative "clouds" were created so they have a sovereign cloud, and then bought back by a big telco linked to the state. Then the big telco have it managed by Hu…

Of course they did, when the aeroplane was invented lots of countries made their own aeroplanes. They still buy them from Boeing, but they could make their own if they had to. This is how governments protect their countries, they have a back up plan. If access to MS Office, Oracle, AWS etc was restricted by the US government, or began to be priced unreasonably high, effective replacements are ready to go live. Until…

> Of course they did, when the aeroplane was invented lots of countries made their own aeroplanes. They still buy them from Boeing, but they could make their own if they had to.

Airbus is the dominant commercial airplane maker, beating Boeing in orders and deliveries, not to mention quality, for years in a row. And yes, it started as a bunch of European countries merging their national (sometimes government owned, sometimes just closely guarded) aerospace manufacturers.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#292

Post by RGamma »

danaris wrote: post #277
close04 wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market share is the percentage of the market, up to 100%. The market might grow due to the different measures adopted but percentage wise it will always be limited to the whole being 100%, split between however many players. Everyone's share increasing means the market going above 100%. What OP means is that it's a mathematical impossibility for everyone's market share to increase. It's a zero sum game, for any p…

I think that what the GP is saying is that they could each be correct, individually, but not all collectively.

The collective case is called https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_competition btw.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#293

Post by ponector »

dukeyukey wrote: post #284
ponector wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is huge, but still peanuts considering cost of living and prices for housing. Many people just gave up to the dream of real estate ownership. Rent till the death. With 6000 monthly how many years they need to save money for down payment for small apartment? Buying a house is not an option at all for working people.

I don't think that's true. America's home ownership hovers around 65% - in Norway it's 80%; Swedeon 65%; Denmark 59%; Iceland 73%. If anything, a higher percentage of Nordic citizens own houses than Americans.

Someone can live with parents and in statistics they will go into "home owners" bucket. Anyway I'm talking about possibility to buy with current salary and current price. If you like statistics - search for house affordability index.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#294

Post by maxglute »

dataking wrote: post #217
throwaway4good wrote: post #11

All the big blocks: EU, US, South Korea, Taiwan, and China assume that their subsidy policies will expand their market share. Obviously they cannot all be right. The only that I think is given that will expand its global market share is China. Paradoxically because of the US sanctions and the fact that it relies so much on imports presently.

> The only that I think is given that will expand its global market share is China. That doesn't make sense given that all the other big blocks are cooperating across borders while China is subject to stiff export controls in an area with real technological chokepoints.

PRC is entrant, west is incumbant with majority of global shares to lose. PRC building up mature nodes, which is still plurarity of chips, which they can soon with indigenous supply chains. As since they are huge export source, and intermediate good source, they get to inject their own chips into everything on global markets. Of which they now trade more with global south than they do western bloc. West can consolidate within bloc, but they'll start to lose large segements of global share, which is where future growth will be. Loss of global revenue, will in turn impact west ability to R&D without large subsidies, which drives down commercial viability. There was study analysing result of PRC domestic overcapacity turn into exports in various sectors like solar, display etc, and their effects on incumbant leaders (predominantly western firms) operating profits, and the effect was like 50-100% loss. The TLDR is west already has dominant global share, any share PRC gains on global market is share lost by west, and west is going to lose big if they retreat/consolidate around only monopolizing western shares .

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#295

Post by maxglute »

jacquesm wrote: post #41
kramerger wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But after the trade war with Huawei and zte they don't really have a choice, do they? A multi billion dollar company will not just lay down and die when its shut out from the open market, it will use its muscles to create its own. Hisense is not the market leader, but they have done a significant leap in the last 5 years (Not all of it through legal means thought)

Agreed they don't have a choice, I'm just not so sure about the positive outcome. Xi has built a house of cards and has too much of a cult of personality to create a stable environment.

This is opposite of reality. House of cards (RE overinvestiment) of past leadership was inherited by Xi, who has been actively dismantling it for years, which he started early - RE square footage stagnated a few years after he started office. Meanwhile, almost every PRC strategic improvement that US is panicking over from PRC military modernization to MIC2025 to PRC moving up science/innovation, capturing higher value supply chains, PRC expanding trade influence was driven by Xi. He also inherited inertia from past efforts still it's been down to his guidance. Which is not to say he did "best" job, but good enough job that PRC strength on trend to grow under his trajectory, which we have 10+ years of data on.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#296

Post by dogma1138 »

cgeier wrote: post #158
dogma1138 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They cannot, ASML tech is licensed from a US government (DOE) owned company - EUV LLC under full congressional oversight. The EUV light source is made in the US because they had to buy a US company for that too.

How does controlling one component give them control over the whole machine?

Their entire EUV process is based on US research and patents. Their largest R&D center is now in the US.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#297

Post by scotty79 »

ekianjo wrote: post #233
scotty79 wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that hit exactly look like?

GDP destruction. You cant have high GDP without people to sustain it. with all the consequences you can expect on its economy.

Wouldn't GDP per capita stay the same?

You definitely can have very different amount of GDP with the same number of people. Why would less people mean lower GDP than simple proportion would suggest?

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#298

Post by maxglute »

andy_ppp wrote: post #148
roenxi wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track…

I dunno, the issue with government picking the winners is there’s plenty of people who like money out there and sound very convincing. Even selecting the best people you still might not build what ASML have. I’m not even sure they can produce the mirrors needed for EUV let alone the laser light source and all the tens of thousands of other technologies that are in these machines. It’s extremely hard and China is in a…

Only government picking winners can succeed when incumbant leader is generations ahead in sector with generations of knowledge mote and 100s of billions of historic investment, a big % of which was also industrial policy. The alternative to gov effort is nothing. Which is better than nothing and no waste (not trying), but worse than something an waste.

But real question is, when has PRC government industrial policy failed? Essentially never. Especially under pressure. They're inefficient sure, miss deadlines, but overall they have either delivered and caught up on almost every strategic sector of interest, except leading edge semiconductors. They even caught up on turbo jet engines within last few years, it's within single generation of performance, behind on reliability (hence operating costs). Which makes commercialization an issue, but that's hardly factor when alternative is nothing.

EUV being "hard" is to be quanitified. Despite narratives to liken EUV to black magic, it wasn't an Manhattan project effort. Before first commercial EUV system was released ASML had ~10k employees, Zeiss SMT had ~3k, Cymer had ~1k. EUV developed without any pressing strategic urgency for 20 years. It wasn't a massive commercial/strategic undertaking. For reference, Boeing/Lockheed/Airbus had like 100-150k in 2010s.

Also PRC growing at modest 5% vs previous 8-10% with RE speculation. 5% because without excess RE, PRC still has many easy growth drivers for recession. and RE is hardly an exitential crisis that affects development in other sectors. Only idiots thinks PRC economy is just a giant RE ponzi scheme and nothing else. US S&T growing throughout GFC too. There's plenty of money and more importantly, finally talent, to go around. And economically it's dumb to not dumb stupid money in semi, when it's PRC's largest import by value. Indigenous semi will save trillions from going to western pockets/western strategic industries. Simply not paying western IP fees / rent pushes inefficient PRC semi processes to be into commercial viablity. It pays for itself.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#299

Post by throw_pm23 »

dukeyukey wrote: post #231
throw_pm23 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an easy way to (statistically) double the amount of successful startups in Europe by almost any metric: include Israel in the count.

Depending on the metric, including Israel wouldn't even double the number compared to London, let alone the whole UK, _let alone_ all of Europe.

But I wrote "successful startups"...

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#300

Post by roenxi »

boltzmann-brain wrote: post #247
roenxi wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track…

> other countries will replicate the research How did that go for China and Russia during the last... 20 years of them throwing all their money and brain power at it? No, ASML is guarding profound insights. I run a community for silicon valley veterans from areas like silicon design, manufacturing, hardware design, top-tier testing equipment, military and research lab prototyping, etc. The stuff ASML is doing is nigh…

The US dropped the atomic bomb in 1945. The USSR replicated their efforts by 1949, and both had ICBMs by the 1960s. The Chinese were late starters figuring the tech out by the 64s.

It is likely that nano-fabrication is harder than the atomic bomb - but betting on the Chinese not figuring this out just seems overoptomistic. They can bribe people. They can hire people. They can spy. They have some of the brightest scientists and engineers. They have enormous market, military and political incentives. They know what they are targeting and the tolerances they need. There is a good chance they crack this nut.

> How did that go for China and Russia during the last... 20 years of them throwing all their money and brain power at it?

ASML wasn't causing trouble until the Trump sanctions of 2018, up until then SMIC could just buy machines off them. The situation is different now and the research efforts will have kicked up a notch.

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