Live data from Hacker News

Charlie Munger has died

berkshirehathaway.com

291–300 of 454 posts

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#291
post #116
post #9

Everybody should read his speech, "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment": https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/ It's a fantastic read that can really help you understand why supposedly rational masses of people can end up being so wrong. In the tech world, it ends up being more relevant than one would like it to be.

[flagged]

Summary by Kagi Universal Summarizer

    Human judgment is often flawed due to various psychological biases and tendencies hardwired in our brains through evolution, such as incentive-caused bias, consistency and commitment bias, and deprivation super reaction syndrome.

    Figures like B.F. Skinner and Ivan Pavlov conducted important experiments demonstrating how reinforcement and conditioning shape human and animal behavior.

    Marketing, advertising, and product design frequently exploit psychological tendencies like contrast effects, reciprocity bias, and social proof to influence consumer choices.

    Board of directors are often ineffective at reining in CEOs due to psychological factors like commitment to prior decisions and not wanting to undermine authority figures.

    Understanding psychological tendencies can help avoid being manipulated and make better decisions by considering disconfirming evidence and alternatives objectively.

    Applying insights from psychology and economics together gives a more holistic view of human decision-making than either field alone.

    Education should teach about these psychological tendencies so people can recognize their own biases and make more informed judgments.

    Case studies of companies like Coca-Cola and mistakes of leaders like John Gutfreund demonstrate impacts of psychological factors consequentially.

    Figures like Charles Darwin and Sam Walton applied self-awareness of psychological tendencies to achieve remarkable success and wisdom.

    Secretive conventions and forcing priority on difficult tasks can help overcome natural human biases revealed through experiments.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing is that since this guy died at 99yo it means that 30 years ago he was still an old 70yo man. Screws with my brain sometimes

30 years ago I was in diapers and barely aware of what was going on around me. This old man was still an old man. Youth really is fleeting.

and wasted on the young...

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#293

In 1949, Charlie Munger was 25 years old. He was hired at the law firm of Wright & Garrett for $3,300 per year, or $42,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. A few years later, in 1953, Charlie was 29 years old when he and his wife divorced. He had been married since he was 21. Charlie lost everything in the divorce, his wife keeping the family home in South Pasadena. Munger moved into “dreadful” conditions at the Univer…

In 1949, Charlie Munger was 25 years old. He was hired at the law firm of Wright & Garrett for $3,300 per year, or $42,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. This shows how much white collar salaries have really exploded over the past few decades, especially since 2010 after financial crisis bottom. White collar work is more lucrative than ever even accounting for inflation and student loan debt. The media and ppl on Twi…

Also remember that he was able to support a stay-at-home wife and family and buy a house on that salary.

The direct comparison of inflation ignores that the relative cost of things also changes. Our cost of living is much higher than it was post-war. But we get to have decent sanitation, phones and computers, better medicine, etc.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#294
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely agree. Read about Buffet’s favorite investment: See’s Candies. They bought a beloved, family-owned brand, cut costs, and jacked up prices. What does that sound like to you? It’s the typical private equity playbook that’s almost universally derided. Buffet and Munger were the original pioneers of PE. Their legacy is not positive.

>They bought a beloved, family-owned brand, cut costs, and jacked up prices. Berkshire by design doesn't influence how the companies they bought are run.

The current CEO of See's is Pat Egan. Prior to this, Egan was an SVP at NV Energy, another Berkshire company. It's a pretty crazy coincidence that the CEO of See's would be an existing Berkshire employee if Berkshire had no influence in how the company was run.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#295
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to remember that Bogle/Munger/Buffet all gained prominence when value investing wasn't a thing and investing of any kind was wildly out of reach for the common man. Today anyone can go online and buy VTI in minutes. Every financial advisor and 401k plan recommends index funds by default, and it is how the vast majority of people and organizations store their wealth. It doesn't need any more cheerleaders or i…

Value investing is “an investment paradigm that involves investing in stocks that are overlooked by the market and are being traded below their true worth”. Correct me if wrong, but I don’t think index funds come under that paradigm.

This doesn't happen any more. Back then you could find companies with a cap that was LESS than the money they had in the bank. Those were no brainer deals.

This strategy was actually pioneered by buffets mentor Benjamín graham. By just blindly following a formula you would do value investing by calculating NAV vs market cap.

Buffet took it one step further. He calculates another type of value called intrinsic value and that relies on other factors rather not just the ratio of assets to cap. Part of it relies on consistency of revenue, growth and qualitative aspects of the business as well.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. I never knew all this about Charlie Munger, thanks for sharing. It’s rare gems like him that give me confidence that sometimes against all odds one can succeed. Also I appreciate his love for his family. That’s by far the most valuable asset one posses - if not the only.

Family first, followed by friends. It is sad to me that so many young people are voluntarily choosing not to have children. They are the ultimate - the reason we exist, the mechanism for leaving a legacy, the most beautiful thing on earth. Family is everything

> It is sad to me that so many young people are voluntarily choosing not to have children.

I think many people feel they are incapable of taking care of offspring. Better not to bring into this world children you cannot care properly for.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#297
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the larger point is that public capital markets have become steadily more efficient. There are no "value stocks" anymore because nothing is overlooked by the market, those old opportunities have been arbitraged away. Modern computing systems have made it practical to look at every stock every day, so all stocks now trade at their "true worth" because all publicly available information gets instantly priced in…

As a counter-argument, you usually need to read a lot into the reported numbers, for example read the 10K notes for multiple years in the past. That's the only way to know that the 3B in assets showing up on the balance sheet for "goodwill", to use one easy example, are not really worth 3B. There are many more-nuanced factors that work alike. The reported numbers are what the accountants think might fly under GAAP, a…

>To test whether markets are perfectly efficient, just look for large movements over time. If a stock goes up 20% in a year, the market might have undervalued it last year, or is overvaluing it this year. It's unlikely the it was correctly valuing it at both times. In the absence of a Covid-19 pandemic, act of god, etc. of course.

This is technical analysis not value investing.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#298

In 1949, Charlie Munger was 25 years old. He was hired at the law firm of Wright & Garrett for $3,300 per year, or $42,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. A few years later, in 1953, Charlie was 29 years old when he and his wife divorced. He had been married since he was 21. Charlie lost everything in the divorce, his wife keeping the family home in South Pasadena. Munger moved into “dreadful” conditions at the Univer…

This is great, thanks for the write up on this sad news and the life of a laudable man. Where did you pull that from by the way?

https://twitter.com/kevg1412/status/1729632415742906370?s=20

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#299

In 1949, Charlie Munger was 25 years old. He was hired at the law firm of Wright & Garrett for $3,300 per year, or $42,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. A few years later, in 1953, Charlie was 29 years old when he and his wife divorced. He had been married since he was 21. Charlie lost everything in the divorce, his wife keeping the family home in South Pasadena. Munger moved into “dreadful” conditions at the Univer…

[flagged]

The women in my life have all played a significant role in my ability to build my career. For some, like my mother and my kids mom, this incurred some cost to their careers. I wouldn’t be where I am without them, therefore in a sense yes, they did work for my income. Often in hidden and yet incredibly important, valuable ways.

My mom died, but if she were still around I wouldn’t think twice about taking care of her. As for my wife, whether things go well or not, she has undoubtedly carried me at times just as I’ve carried her, through the most crucial parts of our children’s lives. If that’s not a person who deserves my support, no one is.

It might not always seem fair. Sometimes it actually isn’t. But it’s exceedingly unlikely that his wife didn’t facilitate his success in some way over the better part of a decade.

Re: Charlie Munger has died

#300

In 1949, Charlie Munger was 25 years old. He was hired at the law firm of Wright & Garrett for $3,300 per year, or $42,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. A few years later, in 1953, Charlie was 29 years old when he and his wife divorced. He had been married since he was 21. Charlie lost everything in the divorce, his wife keeping the family home in South Pasadena. Munger moved into “dreadful” conditions at the Univer…

>>Charlie was 29 years old when he and his wife divorced.

>>But by the time he was 69 years old, he had become one of the richest 400 people in the world, been married to his second wife for 35+ years, had eight children, and countless grandchildren.

Some times there is a Ronald Wayne moment in relationships, if there could ever be something that could come close to it, this would.

Post reply on HN