That's an awful lot of money for a business that had no revenue and had no business model of any kind. http://windonaleaf.net/post/20464525754/instagram-perform-ad...
Facebook acquires Instagram
291–300 of 394 posts
Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#292Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you joking? You don't think a 100% gain is good for a 1-2 month timeframe? The most successful hedge funds in the world have money thrown at them if they can average 50% gains over the course of a year. And that is an outstanding year! I realize the economics of hedge funds and VC funds are different in that VC's take a shotgun approach and hope that one out of ten investments makes up for all the losers, but on…
> if they can average 50% gains over the course of a year That's the point, this isn't what happened. Given the choice between 2x return in 2 months or 10x return in 120 months, there's no contest at all. That initial investment that returned 2x is now out of play for the life of the fund. If the fund's life is 10 years, the return is 1.1x, not 2x.
BTW, you're absolutely right. The 2x return extrapolates to a return of trillions of dollars over ten years, so there really is no contest at all.
It doesn't matter if you run a hedge fund, a VC fund, or a trust fund. A 2x return is a 2x return, and anybody would take it any day. Anybody who wouldn't has no business working in finance. Just because you assign a ten-year time frame to your portfolio does not diminish the return on that investment, so the return on your $50mm is 2x, not 1.1x.
If you guide your investment strategy based only upon what you hope will happen in the best-case scenario and look down upon investments that double your investment, you're making a mistake. The only reason they need a 10x return on their winners is because at least nine other bets are going to lose. Any win adds value to the fund. As a fund manager would you rather the $50 million have been plowed into a business that returned 0% which is what you expect to have happen ~90% of the time? Do you understand why criticizing this investment makes no sense? You're comparing a great investment to the few investments that turn out to be astronomically fantastic instead of the vast majority that lose money.
Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#293Congrats to Instagram! Can't say I am not bit disappointed though with all the startups getting gobbled up by much larger companies. What's next? Pinterest?
Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#294Earlier quoted context omitted.
Like everyone else already said, VCs can't reinvest so they dont really want 2x returns. Anyways, there's a excellent blog post that explains this very clearly. It is written for founders to understand the VC's perspective when investing. Does anyone know what I"m talking about?
http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2010/08/vc-insanity-economics...
I been looking for this article for the last few months now.
Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#295Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#296Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#297That's an awful lot of money for a business that had no revenue and had no business model of any kind. http://windonaleaf.net/post/20464525754/instagram-perform-ad...
In 2 years, nobody will remember what instagram was.
Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#298Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are just seeing the good cases here. A 10X return on any one investment pays for all the bad investments. If I remember correctly, the return that Sequoia got on their YouTube investment paid for the entire portfolio many times over. But more importantly than that, I think it was one of a very few that were good in that fund. I believe that particular fund was particularly bad because it contained remnants of the…
yeah, but they paid $1 BILLION dollar for a company with NO business model. This buy was just another way for connected Silicon players to cash out on the facebook IPO, since the IPO window for web 2.0 is closed.
Certainly that doesn't mean every large acquisition is justified (e.g. Bebo) but it also means you can't just automatically apply the "company X has no clear business model today and so shouldn't have been bought for Y" argument to every such acquisition either.
Re: Facebook acquires Instagram
#299iPhoto is not half bad. http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/iphoto/id497786065?mt=8
Even if it's made the default photo sharing app in the next release for iOS 5+ users for whatever reason, and integrated deeper come iOS 6 this summer, they'd instantly have access to several times Instagram's userbase.
They could using this as a bargaining chip in their negotiations to integrate FB into iOS / iTunes. Because Facebook, a public company, cannot have a $1B acquisition become irrelevant in a couple of months.