Does Market Timing Work?

Post by unusualmonkey » Wed, Oct 11, 2023, 9:09 PM UTC

Aachen wrote: post #199

unusualmonkey wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A blind monkey throwing darts will beat the S&P 500 some of the time. The problem isn't that it's impossible to beat the S&P 500 (it's actually trivial), the problem is it's hard to predict which portfolio will outperform the S&P 500.

The point they're making is that fewer than 30% of monkeys would still be positive after so many years if it were random chance Idk if that's true but you're not saying what percentage one would expect to see instead I also think monkeys are the wrong example here because aren't they at even odds with the index? 50% of them, assuming they take no bananas for their service and assuming they don't get to make more trad…

> The point they're making is that fewer than 30% of monkeys would still be positive after so many years if it were random chance

I'm not sure that's the argument being made, but if so, it's a terrible argument.

I'll let the statisticians figure out of randomly ~50% should beat index or not.

Post by yterdy » Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 12:49 PM UTC

bumby wrote: post #290

yterdy wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fine. Sure, there are downsides that increase as consumption increases, meaning that overconsumption (however that's defined) is undesirable. However, consumption enables cultural expression that otherwise would be economically untenable. Art, design, music, etc. benefit from economic incentives to overproduce beyond subsistence. That people go above and beyond in their productive capacity in order to enable c…

That's a good point, and I'm in favor of those 'cultural expressions'. But I think we're fooling ourselves if we think somebody is buying a gas-guzzling SUV, or the next iPhone, so they will have the ability to write the next great American novel. I'd venture that most consumption is a status game. I think my larger point is we have to zoom out for a systems level analysis. We shouldn't assume that the production is…

>I'd venture that most consumption is a status game.

I would include the debasement of one's moral soul for social-climbing purposes in the set of aforementioned sacrifices. :)

In any case, I did mention the dangers of overconsumption. There is something in between that and subsistence that is a net-positive for society (in this epoch, at least).

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

Re: Does Market Timing Work?