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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#291
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly not since housing prices are falling due to affordability. And if you look at the capital buying up houses, it's a tiny fraction of all available housing out there. The correct answer is - just like when housing prices went up with low interest rates, they'll go down with high interest rates.

Housing prices are not falling.

Yes they are.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#292
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go? The ones with capital will buy them, and you will be renting.

Seems like a pretty risky investment. Especially as fewer and fewer people will have anything to gain from the NIMBY policies artificially increasing prices.

Historically speaking, investing in property/land has never turned out risky. Initial cost has little significance in total profit calculation as long as you can seek rent indefinitely.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#293
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A debt contract always has a debtor and a creditor.

But the cost structure could very widely when there are different motivators. I suspect this is what is really happening. Colleges in the US are 5 star resorts wheres in Europe they are either old beautiful relics or just old boring buildings with no real amenities and a lot less staff needed to run the operations.

What I mean is that there's no way to indebt whole future generations.

Wealth might be distributed unequally, but debt over all is still a zero sum thing.

I agree that many people in many countries spend too many resources on education. Especially students' time. See Bryan Caplan's book The Case Against Education. See eg https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/7t59x1/revi... for a review.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Support for funding the war could just as easily become an electoral liability in the west, in which case Ukraine loses some territory and the rest of the world moves on as they did when Russia seized Crimea. Either outcome is better for global economic stability than a protracted multi year war.

> Either outcome is better for global economic stability than a protracted multi year war. The problem is the political implications... for one, it would send a signal to China that a land-grab against Taiwan will yield a bit of trouble but nothing too serious. That's the worst case and I seriously hope that that alone (and the economic devastation associated with TSMC blowing up their fabs to prevent them from falli…

The other factor that a lot of people overlook is how badly Ukraines defeat would affect nuclear nonproliferation.

Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons and long strike weapons in exchange for a promise to not be invaded.

After Russia broke that promise who would ever make that same deal again?.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe a hot take but I feel like high(er) interest rates for homes should be the standard. This allows for demand to be modulated, and puts up a barrier to rent seekers from flooding the market. The problem is that over the past 5-10 years a lot of property has already been snapped up by investors at minimal interest rates, so as long as rents stay somewhat stable, they investors will be raking in the returns. I gues…

Japan has low rates and doesn’t have these problems. The cause probably differs.

Japan also has a weirdly deflationary housing market because of some financing and cultural quirks. I.e. homes begin depreciating as soon as you buy them.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#296
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the cost structure could very widely when there are different motivators. I suspect this is what is really happening. Colleges in the US are 5 star resorts wheres in Europe they are either old beautiful relics or just old boring buildings with no real amenities and a lot less staff needed to run the operations.

What I mean is that there's no way to indebt whole future generations. Wealth might be distributed unequally, but debt over all is still a zero sum thing. I agree that many people in many countries spend too many resources on education. Especially students' time. See Bryan Caplan's book The Case Against Education. See eg https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/7t59x1/revi... for a review.

You make it sound like its a black and white thing. I disagree. If you can get your costs under control, that debt accrued now becomes an investment that should pay off the debt in the aggregate long run. After all this is not just money spent on a consumable. This is money spent on a resource(education) that generates more money(in the aggregate) in the form of productivity. The problem is that this is an extremely difficult problem given a large population. Because when you have a large population there ends up being graft that pulls value away and in the worst case scenario(the situation in Communist Russia) the majority of the value is stripped away leaving nothing but the debt. However, that does not mean it can't be made to work well. It seems like many European nations can somewhat get more value than investment (so far).

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#297
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Student loans are an American thing. Unfortunately, they're also becoming an "American export". E.g. Netherlands granted a study grant to all students up until 2015, when it was converted to a student loan [1]. The required amount is still lower and the terms are better than US, but the ball has started rolling. We are now waiting for the next wave of neoliberal policies to see average student debt surging. [1] htt…

Why would you guys even allow this poison to infect your culture? We never had these benefits in the US so there was nothing to take away and many Americans are too poor to ever travel overseas and don't realize how things are done elsewhere. In fact even conservatives fight to maintain what we do have (eg. Social Security, Medicare) But Europe? You guys already have the benefits, aren't you going to get pissed off i…

The starting points between Europe and USA may be different, but the methodology to contain reactions is the same: The boiling frog method [1], and playing the long game.

If the introduced change is subtle enough, only people directly affected will protest. In this case, students did protest for years, and they still do. But because the change is so subtle, it is easy to convincingly brand anyone protesting as unreasonable/reactionary/self-entitled/spoiled. E.g. "Do you complain about paying 20EUR/month for your DUO [2] loan, all while you can even skip payments with no repercussions when unemployed? An entitled lazy brat you are!".

Then, several years later, you can stage an audit on DUO to find out that it's "bleeding money". Now you have a free rein to shut it down and let the private sector to hand the student loans. All to save taxpayers' money, of course!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog [2] https://duo.nl/particulier/international-visitor/

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#298
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I mean is that there's no way to indebt whole future generations. Wealth might be distributed unequally, but debt over all is still a zero sum thing. I agree that many people in many countries spend too many resources on education. Especially students' time. See Bryan Caplan's book The Case Against Education. See eg https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/7t59x1/revi... for a review.

You make it sound like its a black and white thing. I disagree. If you can get your costs under control, that debt accrued now becomes an investment that should pay off the debt in the aggregate long run. After all this is not just money spent on a consumable. This is money spent on a resource(education) that generates more money(in the aggregate) in the form of productivity. The problem is that this is an extremely…

Your thinking seems to be a bit muddled. You seem to be mixing up nominal concepts (basically, money and accounting and debt) and real concepts (capital goods / investing etc).
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