How a heat pump works

Thus Japan acting as a breeding ground for cheaper, replaceable, mini splits. The American manufacturers sold into the HVAC specialist market which was efficiency insensitive but cost sensitive. Thus a bi-partite market.

The only reason mini splits have not bankrupted the American manufacturers yet is many Americans still rely on expensive HVAC specialist to do installs. Thus mini splits extreme cost advantage is buried by expensive installs.

They range from sub-$1K single zone air-to-air wall/window units, to multizone split units, to ground source hydronic boiler/chillers that integrate with baseboard or radiant floors, which can get quite expensive to install, but that's at the high end. Generally speaking they're not really much more expensive than normal air conditioning. I've seen units that come in cooling-only and heating+cooling versions, and the cost difference is marginal (<10%) in those cases.

I priced out a heat pump versus just an AC and gas furnace in my area, and it was a similar spread a few years ago for me in Texas.

As a counterpoint to what seems to me like extremely high rates for electricity, as of right now in Vancouver, BC, Canada, I recently calculated that a heat pump would cost about ~2.5-3.5 cents per kWh of heat energy vs ~4.5 cents for gas heating at 80% efficiency. Power on average is about $0.10 USD per kWh here and gas is about $10 USD per GJ.

The average house here uses 74.3 GJ of gas per year, or $ 743 USD of gas. We would save 413 $ per year by switching over.

The neighbours next door spent $ 17000 USD to install a multi-zone heat pump, which still doesn't exactly cover every room. It's a Samsung, so by the general sentiment about their appliances here, we'll assume it doesn't last longer than 15 years and needs to be replaced at a cost of 12000 $ USD down the line.

The hot water, low efficiency 80% boiler has lasted 35 years so far. Total cost of maintenance and repairs has been under $1500 USD. We expect it to last another 30 years easily because there is absolutely nothing special, fragile, or expensive in this system. Most of the spare parts can be found by walking down the alley and seeing which neighbour fell for the "replace your heating system" salesman tactics.

If we replaced it with a "high efficiency" condensing type, we would save at most 20% on our gas bill (143 USD a year). The cost to install will be easily $5000. As a reward for doing so, we will have to pay for maintenance every 5 years at $200, and the device will fail and need to be replaced for another $4000 after 15 years. This is a statistical and practical certainty because condensate is corrosive.

For the next 30 years, the old boiler we have will cost 23790 USD in total.

Upgrading to a high efficiency boiler will cost us $28032 USD in total, not including ANY breakdowns

Using a heat pump will cost $38900 USD in total, not including any maintenance, which you ABSOLUTELY need to do otherwise it smells and grows mould. (we do this maintenance ourselves but the design of the unit is ghastly, I curse the designer out loud every time I think of it, and this is a MAJOR pain to do.)

Based on this math, there is absolutely no reason we would ever consider making any of these changes. A plumber tried to suggest something like this and they seemed to agree.

With this said, I have a heat pump in my room, originally installed because I had too many computers and I needed air conditioning. We bought the absolute cheapest unit we could find at 700 USD and it has been wonderful. It has a capillary tube instead of an EXV because it's cheap, but it works "fine" down to -5 and it rarely goes under that here.

The greatest benefit of a heat pump has nothing to do with energy efficiency or savings. The greatest benefit is that every room can have their own heating and cooling controls that respond FAST. I turn it up and down all the time when I feel like it and it's wonderful.