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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#291

Post by mythrwy »

excieve wrote: post #277
mythrwy wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

They're actually quite explicit in what the goal is, at least in propaganda towards the internal audience[0]. If one does equate a Ukrainian to a "nazi" that must be exterminated, burns this into the minds for years, builds a chauvinistic version of history to frame it into then the rest comes out naturally — don't even need an order. The behaviour of the Russian army towards the non-combatants so far has been aligne…

That's unadulterated bullshit and I think both of us know it.

"mass rape, mass murder etc".

Look, I don't think the Russians are innocent in this at all. Obviously they have economic incentive and don't mind killing some folks to get what they are after. They don't want to kill everyone though or they would act very differently.

It's not genocide. Very simple. Even by a stretch of the word to include removing Nazi elements from the armed services.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#292

Post by nisa »

slaw wrote: post #281
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

So you pay 700€/year for electricity and twenty times more for rent. I think energy is still inexpensive compared to rent prices.

700€/year for heating in a rather modern flat (modernized 15 years ago) add to that 1200€/year for electricity - rent is without heating around 5000€/year here but not a lot of families can stomach a tripling of heating costs and likely growing electricity costs. Consider the price of gas stays at 15ct/kWh that an additional 1500€/year - for most people in Germany a full month of earnings.

And my situation is rather in the best-case bucket. Lot's of people live in badly insulated houses or flats that have much higher energy costs. I guess it won't matter that that much for upper middle class families - maybe they postpone their expensive vacation or don't buy another SUV but everyone that is poor or just survives without any chance to buildup reserves this could get nasty.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#293

Post by mythrwy »

_ph_ wrote: post #275
mythrwy wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

The Russians pretty much killed a lot of the population of the occupied territories, which hadn't fled in time. A lot of the rest has been abducted to Russia, possibly Siberia.

No they haven't. That's untrue.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#294

Post by oxff »

XorNot wrote: post #265
zirror wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia can't win a war against NATO, so they will not attack Poland or Germany. Maybe Moldova or something. This fear mongering is ridiciouslus. They can't even win against Ukraine, for crying out loud. Poland, France, UK, Germany(, Turkey?) would together crush them in a couple of months. Add Finland and Sweden and it gets reduced to weeks. Add the US and it'll take a couple of days. (Hyperbole, but still). They are…

No, but as soon as you start asking questions like "is X country really worth it compared to nuclear war?" then the deterrent has failed. A loss in Ukraine means every non-NATO state in the region either gets nuclear armed up, or gets annexed. The expectation that the result of "letting it happen" would also be cheap gas is laughable: if someone's willing to trade away their morals and a country for something you sel…

> The expectation that the result of "letting it happen" ...

EU and USA are letting it happen though: there is no military deployment to Ukraine to protect it, and (my guess is) there will not be.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#295

Post by Scarblac »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #287
Scarblac wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see cutting off the EU's has supply as very similar to war, and they started doing that last November. So they will again, the moment the EU doesn't do exactly what Russia says.

The same thing holds true for freezing Russia's foreign Reserves. In many ways the EU and Russia are at War. It's just not a shooting War

Yes, that is exactly what is going on. And we can stop "shooting", but then Russia has no incentive to do the same. They would just conclude that they had won.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#296

Post by ceejayoz »

oxff wrote: post #294
XorNot wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but as soon as you start asking questions like "is X country really worth it compared to nuclear war?" then the deterrent has failed. A loss in Ukraine means every non-NATO state in the region either gets nuclear armed up, or gets annexed. The expectation that the result of "letting it happen" would also be cheap gas is laughable: if someone's willing to trade away their morals and a country for something you sel…

> The expectation that the result of "letting it happen" ... EU and USA are letting it happen though: there is no military deployment to Ukraine to protect it, and (my guess is) there will not be.

There's a whole spectrum of actions between "do nothing" and "open hot war between nuclear powers". It's quite clear Western military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic support has been critical to Ukraine in the current conflict.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#297

Post by frostburg »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #287
Scarblac wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see cutting off the EU's has supply as very similar to war, and they started doing that last November. So they will again, the moment the EU doesn't do exactly what Russia says.

The same thing holds true for freezing Russia's foreign Reserves. In many ways the EU and Russia are at War. It's just not a shooting War

I mean, that happened after they started an actual shooting war of naked aggression. It would be difficult to argue against the ECB spending every cent of russian money on pornographic gatcha microtransactions live while daring Putin to do something about it, at this point.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#298

Post by refurb »

jonathan-adly wrote: post #286
bilbo0s wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't depend on China for energy.

But we depend on them for everything else. I am deeply embedded in the drug supply chain - we would run out of live-savings drugs in 3-6 months of China closed shop. (and drugs are not fundamentally different from any low-margin manufacturing critical item)

No. India produces far more generic drugs than China and the most expensive drugs are made in the US, Europe, Taiwan, Singapore.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#299

Post by mythrwy »

btilly wrote: post #273
mythrwy wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

Genocide has a specific definition, and Russian actions meet that definition. This is genocide, and it is immoral for you to avoid accepting that. The accepted definition is in Article 2 of https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-... Russian propaganda amply demonstrates their intent. The physical part is also well-established. For example Russian filtration camps have been use to "process" then r…

This isn't genocide, even by your very strained definition. It maybe becomes something like that though if this keeps up.

Maybe we in the west should stop being stupid. Just a thought.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#300

Post by xglamp »

btilly wrote: post #257
klpons wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an obvious alternative: The West must stop doubling down every 2 months and seek a diplomatic solution. The U.S is relatively fine. Europe is being screwed over by the virtue-signaling policies. Europe canceled cheap long term Gazprom contracts and is now buying expensive gas (including from Russia!) on the spot market. Europe buys expensive liquid gas form the U.S. Meanwhile, China is laughing and buys chea…

No. Absolutely not. You can't understand anything Russia does until you understand that it has a bully's mindset. Anything you negotiate with them just emboldens them to do more to you later. When confronted, they escalate but there is a lot less muscle behind that than it seems. Therefore any negotiation of the kind that you describe will embolden them to reach for more as soon as they think they can. Appeasing Russ…

Isn't understandingwar.org run by the same people who drove the Ukraine into this mess? Who were proponents of multiple wars that the U.S. has lost (Afghanistan being the most recent one)?

How would we know what appeasing Russia will do when it has never been tried? Not all wars are like WWII. What if this is the same as the Finnish winter war, where Stalin was eventually content with Karelia and some other small parts?

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