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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#291

Post by hinkley »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #34
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

In theory if Tesla just figures out how to make batteries at scale they could be quite successful even if their sales numbers plateau. But in practice it doesn't seem like auto part wholesalers have a whole hell of a lot of power to set prices. Some of the better known brands are subsidiaries, and a few seem to have started as such.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#292

Post by bambax »

steveBK123 wrote: post #275
alasdair_ wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could cause absolute chaos by driving down the road broadcasting false messages. I’ve personally tested creating a fake toad sign and my tesla reads it as a real sign just fine. I wonder what happens to autopilot on a 70mph freeway when it encounters a 5mph limit sign…

Bad bad things. I've had my Tesla on a highway either lose GPS precision and believe I was on an adjacent local road.. It immediately reduced speed from 60mph to 25mph .. aggressively. This falls into a pattern of Tesla autopilot/NoA where it just doesn't seem to have much memory or foresight. For example the car is driving itself on the highway, it knows it's been on the highway, for 20 minutes. I am not even in the…

> For example the car is driving itself on the highway, it knows it's been on the highway, for 20 minutes. I am not even in the exit lane, it knows what lane I am in. How could it think I am suddenly on the local road below the highway based solely on the GPS pin movement in the span of a second, without having moved to the exit lane and gone down the exit ramp?

Oh wow. This happens often with a car-mounted GPS (or on a phone) and it's pretty annoying. Sometimes the GPS instructs you to do a U-turn at the next available fork in the road, and it takes a moment to understand what's going on.

But in a self-driving car it's terrifying! And absurd.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#293

Post by moralestapia »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

>which makes it sound like this is the result of frustration with the technical approach instead of burnout

LOL no, he was jumping ship already.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#294

Post by moralestapia »

rlt wrote: post #234
01100011 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worry…

I can forgive a lot of grandiosity as long as he keeps delivering more than his competitors. Steve Jobs was also known for his “reality distortion field”, so maybe it comes with the territory. That said, FSD progress seems asymptotic and the Optimus thing always seemed like bullshit.

Yes, but Steve Jobs delivered. He was rude and whatnot, but far from a fraud.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#295

Post by steveBK123 »

coenhyde wrote: post #243
dahdum wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. My take is the opposite. Incumbents already have like 90% of what Tesla had or chose to build from scratch. EV's are not complicated at all compared to ICE, and incumbents have been refining their manufacturing process for decades in a brutally competitive industry. Unless Tesla can s…

I agree that the EV tech stack is easy. EV retro fits illustrate how simple EV's are. But that's not the part that matters. What matters is if you can make an outsized profit building and selling EV's. Legacy auto can't, Tesla can. Tesla is very vertically integrated so they can eek out extra margin that others can't. They also aren't inhibited by the existing dealer / service / financing model. So what I'm saying is…

I was with you in my 4 years of Tesla ownership but having researched & sampled the competition I just can't agree anymore.

Tesla has gone down a cul-de-sac with FSD to the point that there's plenty of equally competent highway "self driving", which is all 99% of people actually need/want.

Further Tesla is extremely focussed on SKU minimization .. very few models with very few options. Tesla only has 4 cars which are kind of like 3.5 given how similar 3/Y are. People want a variety of sizes/shapes/luxury levels, and to have some options within a model.

At the Model 3&Y end of price curve, they face serious competition from Ford, Hyundai, Kia and VW.

At the S&X end, they are actually in worse shape because the Germans will sell you a wide range of cars, which actually feel luxurious inside for the ~$100K price you are paying... with lots of fun colors and options packages. The interior of a $50K Model 3 and $130K Model S are more similar than dissimilar.

You can get also get worse EVs for cheaper than the lowest Tesla starting price... not every car can start at $50K.

I mean it's kind of crazy the Tesla Model Y has crept up to $68k starting price. There are a lot of crossover/hatchback EVs in the $40-60k range especially with tax credits included...

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#296

Post by clouddrover »

practice9 wrote: post #107
atombender wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The situation outside the US is even worse for Tesla. There's a whole swathe of great EVs these days from VW (ID.3, ID.4), Renault (Megane, E-2008), Opel (Corsa-e), Volvo (C40, XC40), Ford (Mustang Mach-E), Jaguar (I-PACE), Polestar, BMW (i4, iX), Audi (e-Tron), Mercedes (EQS), Skoda (Enyaq), etc. The range of models is also much wider in terms of affordability. In Europe, we've reached the point where an EV is just…

And still Teslas sell better both in EU & China than all those EVs you mentioned

Volkswagen sells the most EVs in Europe. Volkswagen's sales are split across many models and brands (VW, Skoda, SEAT, Cupra, Audi, Porsche, etc.):

https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y...

So far in 2022 Tesla is fourth, just behind Hyundai (Hyundai's brands are Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis).

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#297

Post by mikeyouse »

moralestapia wrote: post #294
rlt wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can forgive a lot of grandiosity as long as he keeps delivering more than his competitors. Steve Jobs was also known for his “reality distortion field”, so maybe it comes with the territory. That said, FSD progress seems asymptotic and the Optimus thing always seemed like bullshit.

Yes, but Steve Jobs delivered. He was rude and whatnot, but far from a fraud.

And Jobs' "reality distortion field" was primarily used to motivate / burn-out his team by demanding things that were technically very difficult but feasible (one of the original anecdotes was about reducing the boot-time for the original Macintosh), not something like solving AGI which FSD would ~apparently require.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#298

Post by lostmsu »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

He contributed some commits to his excellent https://github.com/karpathy/minGPT during that time.

BTW, Andrej, if you're reading this, it is not just excellent it is beyond excellent. I do a lot of tinkering with transformers and other models lately, and base them all on minGPT. My fork is now growing into a kind of monorepo for deep learning experimentation, though lately it started looking like a repo of Theseus, and the boat is not as simple anymore :)

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#299

Post by carbadtraingood »

YZF wrote: post #201
carbadtraingood wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cars are real but they are... Mediocre. The first year of ownership is an amazing honeymoon period, assuming you got one with decent build quality. But the parts are cheap, and they break quickly. I've had one for 5+ years and it's gradually become something I prefer driving less and less.

3.5 years here with a model 3. Zero problems. Still love it. What other EV would you pick and what would you use instead of the supercharger network? I don't want to own any more gasoline cars...

Currently have a reservation in for a Ford Lightning (but we use a truck for our forest). We have a plug in hybrid that has a 20 mile range on battery that basically never runs on gas as well.

I've heard good things about the Kia Niro, VW ID.4, and Hyundai Kona as well.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#300

Post by [deleted] »

steveBK123 wrote: post #275
alasdair_ wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could cause absolute chaos by driving down the road broadcasting false messages. I’ve personally tested creating a fake toad sign and my tesla reads it as a real sign just fine. I wonder what happens to autopilot on a 70mph freeway when it encounters a 5mph limit sign…

Bad bad things. I've had my Tesla on a highway either lose GPS precision and believe I was on an adjacent local road.. It immediately reduced speed from 60mph to 25mph .. aggressively. This falls into a pattern of Tesla autopilot/NoA where it just doesn't seem to have much memory or foresight. For example the car is driving itself on the highway, it knows it's been on the highway, for 20 minutes. I am not even in the…

[deleted]
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