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We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

blog.stablegains.com

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Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#291

Post by oefrha »

empathy_m wrote: post #277
jmyeet wrote: post #100

What's funny about this is that I can recall discussions here and elsewhere from only a few months ago questioning the "guaranteed" super-high returns. I forget who said this but someone awhile ago said in finance said that if someone is promising you consistent above-market returns it's either a scam or there is unknown or undisclosed risk. And the Crypto Andys were all like "you just don't understand DeFi!" to whic…

I invested money with Stablegains rather than in UST/Anchor more directly because of the YCombinator branding. I figured that if the system collapsed, I would be able to notice it early and withdraw, and that YC-affiliated investor money would help compensate me with more luck than if I had to liquidate out of the system myself. I withdrew after seeing a friend on Cryptography Twitter send a message showing the desta…

> YC-affiliated investor money would help compensate me

Not sure why you believe a mere investor is liable for any compensation if the 15% APY gambling scheme goes under.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#292

Post by downandout »

cookiengineer wrote: post #280
downandout wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the Crypto Andys were all like "you just don't understand DeFi!" to which the retort is "No, you just don't understand finance". If you believe the statement "if someone is promising you consistent above-market returns it's either a scam or there is unknown or undisclosed risk" it might be true that you don't understand DeFi to some degree. DeFi isn't a single market, it's millions of micro markets that are acces…

> DeFi isn't a single market, it's millions of micro markets that are accessible through what amounts to a single API. Millions of micro markets that produce what, exactly? Last time I checked there has to be at least something on the other side of the calculation what a coin is worth. You think crypto coins magically make people work harder, better, faster, stronger? That's not how the constraints of the physical wo…

Millions of micro markets that produce what, exactly?

You seem to be asking me to defend the merits of crypto, which is beyond the scope of this conversation. But generally speaking, most of the coins people actually buy are tied to protocols that are attempting to do things that interesting to at least some part of the population.

But, the ability to prove the provenance and ownership of any asset, whether physical or digital, has value. The ability to move value across borders instantly, cheaply, and reliably, has value.

In a world where so much has been made of fake news, imagine if you could know with absolute certainty that a given quote you read from someone in an article is authentic and given to the specific outlet you are reading it at, not taken from somewhere else, perhaps out of context. Imagine if Google integrated such information/quote verification into its search results, and could use it to prioritize sites with real quotes or information. SERPs wouldn’t be full of trash, and small sites that manage to scoop large ones could get instant #1 rankings. Authenticity verification has value.

The possibilities are endless.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#293

Post by oefrha »

HL33tibCe7 wrote: post #198
jmyeet wrote: post #100

What's funny about this is that I can recall discussions here and elsewhere from only a few months ago questioning the "guaranteed" super-high returns. I forget who said this but someone awhile ago said in finance said that if someone is promising you consistent above-market returns it's either a scam or there is unknown or undisclosed risk. And the Crypto Andys were all like "you just don't understand DeFi!" to whic…

The fact that people are putting their money on the line without realising this extremely basic fact of finance is concerning to say the least. And the fact that YC actually invested in this company which claimed to contravene that basic rule is staggering.

> without realising this extremely basic fact of finance

More like claiming they didn’t know when they lose it all. Admitting “I gambled and I lost” isn’t a recipe for sympathy and possible compensation.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#294

Post by ipsin »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #220
323 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It really is a science. Physics is a science. Math is. Or Biology. Finance is not. Because it deals with the madness of crowds. > Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street > And Li's Gaussian copula formula will go down in history as instrumental in causing the unfathomable losses that brought the world financial system to its knees. > Nassim Nicholas Taleb is particularly harsh when it comes to the…

> Physics is a science. Math is. Or Biology. Finance is not. Because it deals with the madness of crowds. If you follow the scientific method, it's science. If you write an observational essay, it's not. You can build theories around falsifiable, replicable experiments pertaining to the madness of crowds. The error bars are longer. But they are not infinite.

Re: "The error bars are not infinite."

I feel like they are infinite? Because, for example, in hyperinflation, there's no upper bound on how long someone is going to keep printing money.

Any given instance will stop at a finite number, but you can't bank of that being the high water mark.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#295

Post by picture »

pyrale wrote: post #201
koheripbal wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What most people don't understand about finance is that there are fundamental rules that you really cannot break without consequences. Anyone who has studied quantitative finance knows that it is a HARD science. I worked with a Nobel prize winner in economics, and the math dominated. There was no politics, no opinions, no ethics involved. It really is a science. Most social media characterize finance as some ethical…

> Most social media characterize finance as some ethical vice or organized political power structure - and those people simply don't understand finance. Just because quantitative analysis has solid grounding doesn't mean that its use is unrelated to ethics. The finance establishment is an organized power structure whose decisions are political. If you want an analogy, I'm pretty sure that you'll find plenty of people…

That can also be said for nearly all specializations/ventures of us humans, right? Physics (nukes), chemistry (explosives and refined sugars), electronics engineering ("engagement optimization"), biology (human experiments maybe), philosophy (started many wars), etc. There doesn't seem to be many things where we haven't corrupted in some way. Everything is about ethics and politics(?)

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#296

Post by tmpz22 »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #216
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it’s easier to just get over it as quickly as possible. None of this will amount to anything, and you’ll feel awful until you give up You don't write to your A. G. to get your money back. (You won't.) You do as an act of civic service. These people will defraud again. Their investors will back people who will defraud again. Putting people in jail doesn't get anyone's money back. But it deters the next fraud. Write…

I guess. Just as long as you really embrace the “move on” part. It was a mistake I made, so I’m just hoping to help people realize that things get so much easier when you stop caring.

So you’re suggesting apathy in the face of victim-hood?

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#297

Post by tmpz22 »

majormajor wrote: post #171
sergiomattei wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s not even get started with Sama pushing Worldcoin, a pretty exploitative attempt at getting everyone’s irises with a pre-mined currency supposed to revolutionize world finance.

The VC drive to jump into the crypto world was startling to me. People hold varying opinions on various crypto products, but so many of the ones getting investment are making claims that should gather extreme scrutiny from a crowd that should be familiar with finance and returns. "We expect 10%+ returns for a long time"? Folks investing in companies instead of banks should know firsthand that guaranteed market-beatin…

VC has always been about getting in really early and getting out early.

This is their bread and butter.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#298

Post by MichaelBurge »

nikanj wrote: post #184
DelaneyM wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of countries have currencies which have a fixed exchange with USD, including my own (1 KYD = 1.2 USD). It just takes a shit-tonne of capital, and it helps to have a functioning internal economy and flexibility to be able to defend against malicious agents. I suspect there are other legal issues with creating an alternative currency in the us though, which is why these aren't currencies but securities. Which is…

It’s trivial to mint tokens that are on a fixed rate to USD - assuming you are ready to keep the full amount of USD locked up somewhere. Disaster strikes when someone sees the mountain of money and thinks ”If we invest this money, we get to keep the gains”

It's not a theoretical problem, but there's a practical one: Banks themselves loan out the money, so a run on a stablecoin can cause a run on actual banks. And FDIC isn't enough to cover the full amount.

This can be mitigated by using many banks, but it's hard to find banks willing to deal with cryptocurrency. So in practice all the deposits are at 1-2 banks.

A stack of paper USD in a safe would work, but there's risk of theft/fire/etc.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#299

Post by kadoban »

picture wrote: post #295
pyrale wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most social media characterize finance as some ethical vice or organized political power structure - and those people simply don't understand finance. Just because quantitative analysis has solid grounding doesn't mean that its use is unrelated to ethics. The finance establishment is an organized power structure whose decisions are political. If you want an analogy, I'm pretty sure that you'll find plenty of people…

That can also be said for nearly all specializations/ventures of us humans, right? Physics (nukes), chemistry (explosives and refined sugars), electronics engineering ("engagement optimization"), biology (human experiments maybe), philosophy (started many wars), etc. There doesn't seem to be many things where we haven't corrupted in some way. Everything is about ethics and politics(?)

Everything is political, and everything has ethical considerations, yes.

Refusing to take a side _is_ a side, it means you're fine with how things are going on their own.

This isn't corruption, it's just recognition that life has choices, and those choices have consequences, for yourself and others.

Re: We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service

#300

Post by downandout »

caminante wrote: post #286
downandout wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct, but all investments have a maximum size at which returns will stop. That said, even large banks are seeing returns considered impossible in traditional markets with DeFi strategies, often with lower risk. Arb bots like mine are now generating more than $1 billion per year in risk-free earnings, so the pie is not exactly small. Estimates are that statistical arbitrage bots, which do take on some small…

>But in DeFi, intelligence and strategy translate directly to greater yield. Math has proven time and again that those things matter very little in traditional markets. You're all over the place with your usage of concepts. Here you say that intelligence and strategy matter little in "traditional" (vague) markets. Yet, in DeFi, they do. Not buying it. It feels like I could copy and replace your replace all of your us…

There are countless articles showing that literal monkeys throwing darts at a dart board can pick sticks as well or better than most fund managers. This is not the case with DeFi. I’m not all over the place with anything, DeFi is a place where skill still matters because of inefficiencies and the presence of a large amount of “dumb” money.
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