Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#291

Post by ericmay » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 2:58 PM UTC

danaris wrote: post #270

ericmay wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which we know, but apparently Putin doesn't. I think in one of his writings or a public speaking engagement he said "They're (Ukrainians) Russian even if they don't know it".

I read an article recently—which I'm afraid I can't find anymore—that posited that part of what's going on is that Putin, and some of the rest of Russia, has a rather surprisingly expansive view of what it means to be "Russian", combined with the belief that if one is, by that definition, Russian, it is good and right to be part of Mother Russia. It also pointed out that by extension, this means that anyone in Ukrain…

I agree and this is what I've read and listened to as well. (1) Putin tell us this is the case in his spoken words and in his written words and actions.

From an economic standpoint, or the standpoint that war is bad and should be avoided this obviously looks insane to you and I. But if you have different motivations, such as you and others described, it could look perfectly rational. It's all about the parameter space you operate in that determines your actions.

(1) Ezra Klein has some fantastic podcast episodes about this - let me know if you'd like a suggestion or two

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#292

Post by quantum_solanum » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 2:58 PM UTC

Barrera wrote: post #225

> Russian gas accounted for 55% of Germany's gas imports in 2021 and 40% of its gas imports in the first quarter of 2022, Reuters reported. The country has pledged to end the use of Russian gas by 2024, the Habeck said in a March 25 press release. Some in this thread have asked how Germany could be so foolish to tie its economic destiny to such a problematic country as Russia. The answer seems to be "one step at a ti…

> In exchange the US got cheap goods (and low inflation), and continued supremacy of the dollar in world trade and as a reserve asset.

And perhaps most importantly defused the worker radicalism of the 60s/70s by literally moving the means of production out from under them.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#293

Post by nbadg » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 2:58 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #107

nbadg wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To expand on this: much of the distribution infrastructure within Germany is owned by Gazprom. For example, there's a very large natural gas storage capacity within Germany, but a significant portion of that is owned by, you guessed it, Gazprom. There's broad consensus that, if all of the storage infrastructure were topped up, Germany would be able to make it through _next_ winter reasonably well, even if Russia stop…

> It's also worth pointing out that there's been some evidence suggesting that, in the weeks and months leading up to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the "fill level" of the Russian-owned storage infrastructure within Germany was decreased, which would both be a way for Russia to attempt to leverage gas delivery against sanctions (in other words, blackmail), as well as yet another strong indication that the inva…

The nuances around spot pricing are testing the limits of my knowledge here, but my understanding (which might be wrong!) is that, in the context of gas storage infrastructure, spot prices have an indirect influence on the fill level, purely based on price speculation. In other words, the good-faith actors would respond to low spot prices by increasing the fill level in storage infrastructure, but because the prices are currently high, there's no incentive for that, and now the German government is trying to figure out a policy solution to increase storage fill level. Seizing control of Gazprom Germania would then play a part in that policy solution.

That being said, just to clarify: the discussions I was referencing in the GP comment suggest that Gazprom has not been acting as a good-faith rational actor, and has in fact been keeping their storage infrastructure even less full than you would expect due to high gas prices.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#294

Post by mschuster91 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:03 PM UTC

fuoqi wrote: post #207

mschuster91 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's also worth pointing out that there's been some evidence suggesting that, in the weeks and months leading up to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the "fill level" of the Russian-owned storage infrastructure within Germany was decreased, which would both be a way for Russia to attempt to leverage gas delivery against sanctions (in other words, blackmail), as well as yet another strong indication that the inva…

>Gazprom still kept their long-term contracts but unlike all the prior times did not supply much on the spot market - which led to the well observed price hikes and utilities going bankrupt or out of business because their "old" strategy of simply buying on the spot market didn't work out. What do you expect to happen when long-term contracts get tied to spot prices? Why the hell would Gazprom willingly lower the spo…

> Why the hell would Gazprom willingly lower the spot prices when bulk of its sales will suffer from it?

Because that is what they have done for the last decades - the pipelines have more than enough capacity, even without NS2. They only stopped selling on the short-term market last year.

The only explanation why Gazprom was leaving that obscene mountain of money on the table is because they have been ordered to do so by Vladolf himself, so that he has leverage against Germany in the Ukraine invasion.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#295

Post by OrvalWintermute » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:03 PM UTC

ptero wrote: post #71

throwaway4good wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly what is left of value in this company; except some payrolls, offices, and some contracts which are void anyway?

Pipelines (which I would not underestimate) and storage?

the storage and the pipes are the most valuable thing, since gas is just a commodity.

Add another supplier, load it up, use pre-existing storage and distribution, Gazprom replaced.

This is also why this is so dangerous from a legal perspective. Gazprom probably spent a great deal building this network and storage. Only to have it seized....

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#296

Post by belorn » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:05 PM UTC

ivan_gammel wrote: post #139

belorn wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is protecting the economy more important than stopping the funding of the Russian army and their military invasion?

There's a false assumption that stopping oil and gas imports will somehow stop the invasion and funding of Russian army. It will not, so it's better to focus on more practical and sustainable steps.

During the war with IS there were constantly talk about how funding terrorism goes directly into funding the wars, be that people who directly gave them money or people who bought their drugs. I also often see the police say things like "don't buy things from criminals, it directly fund more criminal activities". We have international agreements against blood diamonds and conflict resource, all focusing on eliminating the finance of those conducing wars. It seems that in every possible way where people are funding war and conflict, the message has been in the past 20-50 years that this is actually a problem that need to addressed. While cutting the funding doesn't imminently stop conflicts, or prevent terrorists from making home made bombs, giving them money does prolong conflicts and gives the warring faction more options to continue doing horrible acts of violence. Cutting the money flow also provide pressure on the targeted population to stop their leaders and forcing them to the peace table.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#297

Post by mschuster91 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:05 PM UTC

nbadg wrote: post #293

mschuster91 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's also worth pointing out that there's been some evidence suggesting that, in the weeks and months leading up to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the "fill level" of the Russian-owned storage infrastructure within Germany was decreased, which would both be a way for Russia to attempt to leverage gas delivery against sanctions (in other words, blackmail), as well as yet another strong indication that the inva…

The nuances around spot pricing are testing the limits of my knowledge here, but my understanding (which might be wrong!) is that, in the context of gas storage infrastructure, spot prices have an indirect influence on the fill level, purely based on price speculation. In other words, the good-faith actors would respond to low spot prices by increasing the fill level in storage infrastructure, but because the prices…

> That being said, just to clarify: the discussions I was referencing in the GP comment suggest that Gazprom has not been acting as a good-faith rational actor, and has in fact been keeping their storage infrastructure even less full than you would expect due to high gas prices.

Yes, I merely explained how they were able to deflect the accusations of acting in bad faith for so long.

Gazprom was leaving literal billions of dollars on the table by not offering any meaningful spot contracts for months now, until the invasion began - a fact that no one could explain with anything else but war preparations, and war was seen as a ridiculous idea almost everywhere, so public discussion was simply left at "we have no idea what they are doing in Moscow".

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#298

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:08 PM UTC

paganel wrote: post #272

lobochrome wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now consider that Germany has a huge dependency not only on the supply side to China but also on the demand side for machinery equipment and vehicles. In addition, we have a huge dependency on the US for national security. So we are dependent on Russia for Energy, on China for Manufacturing and industrial demand of our most important industrial sectors and are protected by the US from a National Security point of vie…

The problem with a country like Germany is that it's too big for Europe (as a continent), but too "small" for the world. Similar thing for France. Of course that the European Union was meant as a solution for this problem (and for the accompanying wars caused by it). I'd say that while the EU has been a great project from an economic pov from a political and geo-strategic pov this war in Ukraine is showing its huge w…

[deleted]

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#299

Post by pilsetnieks » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:09 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #208

pilsetnieks wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just some petrol companies, by Gazprom itself: https://www.transparency.org/en/press/germany-state-governme...

That's not a green group, it's just a front for Gazprom. Just like the fake "Whale conservation" group fighting wind power off Nantucket is a front. If you want to criticize something as large as the Environmental movement, and you can't even find one real example to cite then maybe that means something. If you can't criticize them, don't bring up people that are larping as them for their own ends.

But that is entirely the point - the environmentalists as a whole are not the problem, the problem is the groups that usurp the mantle and push for policy contrary to the wider group's agenda. I'm not criticizing people who fight against pollution, animal cruelty, and fossil fuel abuse; I'm criticizing people pretending to be environmentalists yet lobbying for fossil fuel increase and dismantling cleaner alternatives.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#300

Post by barrenko » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 3:09 PM UTC

mnadkvlb wrote: post #277

TremendousJudge wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hanlon's razor applies here I think. Don't attribute to "the enemy" what can be adequately explained by incompetence.

Maybe. but existance of leaders like Gerhard Schröder displays a different story. (he is sitting on russian gas companies’ boards, after heavily going against nuclear). No shit the leaders failed the country for their own gains, seems like.

The incompetent and the corrupt and more often than not the same person.