Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you'd rather have no effectiveness by not getting the vaccine at all?
Given the risk of myocarditis and other things against the low risk of my demographic with COVID, I'd rather not take the drug with no long term studies.
Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
291–300 of 350 posts
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#292Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because it is a disease which has been weaponized by the United States, United Kingdom and former Soviet Union at a minimum. Not only do diseases escape containment (there was a weaponized Smallpox outbreak in 1971 in the USSR, and Lyme disease is believed to have originated from Plum Island, 2 miles off of Long Island), but there’s a nonzero probability that you’ll have a planned release someday.
> Lyme disease is believed to have originated from Plum Island, Wait, what?!
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#293Earlier quoted context omitted.
At my high school they found a 40 year old bottle of picric acid. Came with the original lab stock in 1960
I've often wondered why so many basic chemistry labs kept picric acid in stock. I really have to wonder if it was some sort of very slow practical joke against hazmat disposal teams.
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#294Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've assumed as much. I've also wondered if there is some sort ability to order innocuous sequence A from company a, innocuous sequence B from company b and then in the privacy of your own lab do the DNA synthesis equivalent of A xor B to get dangerous sequence C.
I think it would be hard to get all the required fragments without raising red flags. There aren't that many synthesis companies and it would take a lot of fragments. Assuming you could get the fragments, its getting easier to assemble (join) them quickly. A 40000 base pair T7 bacteriophage genome was recently assembled from 52 parts in a single reaction (one tube)!
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#295Earlier quoted context omitted.
The common comparison is used to say “it’s not so bad - it’s just like the flu!”. You can compare anything you want (e.g. COVID and Cancer outcomes), but to say COVID isn’t so bad because lung cancer doesn’t kill that many people every year is a bad logical fallacy. The Flu has a vaccination, it’s got natural immunity, and we have a good understanding of it. COVID was brutal even with social distancing measures (wher…
It's also important, I think, to consider this as time series data. There was a point very early on when the flu actually was more dangerous but it became taboo to say because it was obvious that wouldn't be true for long. However as covid becomes endemic and we get better vaccines/therapeutics/natural immunity, that will be true again. The death and hospitalization rate will settle to a rate comparable to the flu, b…
But I am with you - I think this will settle in at some point, and it will be as back to “normal” as we can, with just some people dying of COVID instead of Flu or Pneumonia or whatever would have eventually taken them before.
The vast majority of people don’t want to be super-spreaders. No one thinks they are actually being a super-spreader, but COVID presents as either asymptomatic or as mild allergies for a portion of the population. Which makes it really hard to wrap one’s head around and a wicked problem from a public health standpoint - “It’s not so bad it’s like a mild cold - why should I change my life for that?” or “Wait, you mean my slight cough can end up killing the people I might infect if I go out tonight? But to me it just feels like seasonal allergies. It’s probably not covid”. Ideally the vaccinations will reduce the number of people who die from a mildly symptomatic person going out by some factor of x. Because we can’t have everyone with seasonal allergies shelter in place forever.
It’s impossible to determine how many people will die from the infection that a mildly symptomatic person has if they go to the mall. In aggregate, it’s not zero (otherwise the pandemic would run its course and not be a problem). Sure, even if it’s a 1% chance someone with mild symptoms transmits COVID if they go to a busy shopping mall, that person has a 1% chance of death. But then they may spread it. So maybe it eventually results in .01, 0.1, 1, or 10 people dying per mildly symptomatic person going shopping? There are so many variables it’s nearly impossible to model, and every variable is now a political issue (contagiousness, are deaths really caused by COVID, vaccination rate, masking and distancing). And if the virus mutates and becomes the next more contagious variant in that person, then it could be hundreds of thousands of people.
But at some point, we have to say “OK - can’t test everyone, we have enough vaccinated people to be good, and this is reality - we need to accept a 0.01 “death factor” for this disease when a mildly symptomatic person participates in society. And I do think (or hope) that eventually that factor will line up more closely with the Flu - or ends up better than the flu’s factor (which is non-zero, but it’s a fact of life so we just keep it moving through Flu season).
To be fair, we don’t know if the population of people at the mall would die at the same rate as what COVID is doing overall with the population.
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#296Earlier quoted context omitted.
Using the very numbers you posted, covid is then between 4.7 and 10.6 times deadlier than the flu. If your covid number is the total from the last two years, then it's 2.3 to 5.3 times deadlier than the flu. You don't think it's valid to draw a comparison between the two? Also those rates would be artificially high, as the elderly, who are overwhemingly the ones vulnerable to both viruses, had a yearly shot to protec…
You’re completely discounting the whole economic shutdown, masking, and social distancing that took place with COVID? Even with that, it was 2.3-5.3 deadlier in your estimation. With those countermeasures, the flu season last year was “unusually low throughout the 2020-2021 flu season both in the United States and globally, despite high levels of testing … The low level of flu activity during this past season contrib…
0.2% compared to as high as 30%. So we had 150x reduction in the flu’s prevalence last year from distancing measures. Not saying COVID would have been 150x worse than what we experienced, but it would have been far, far worse than the Flu without the mitigation efforts if you want to try to treat them equally. It was objectively much worse than the Flu last year, not even close. The positive test rate in Oklahoma is >50%![1], but to be fair somewhere between 5-10% looks like average across states. Oklahoma may have limited tests available and/or only test severe cases… Or they are somehow better at testing than other places in the country.
[1] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-r...
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#297Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Ah, your data is well out of date. Smallpox has been eradicated since the 1970s. There is no other data, and the data that exists doesn't support your assertion. A paper from 2001 is up to date. Citing point estimates for SARS-CoV2 is not a rebuttal; there are many such estimates, and as I said, they're specific to time and place. The best you can do is compare distributions and look for general trends. > The delta…
It’s not an estimate in NYC - that was measured.
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#298Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also have you ever seen a picture of someone with smallpox? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Child_with_Smallpox_Bangl... If that doesn't convince the vaccine hesitant, i dont know what will.
You might be surprised. You post that somewhere else, and 50% of the responses will say its fake news and photoshopped.
Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#299Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory
#300A smallpox pandemic would be orders of magnitude more deadly than COVID. COVID has a very low death rate and is comparable to the flu, whereas Smallpox kills 30% of people it infects and disfigures an even higher percentage. And my understanding is that it is just as contagious (may be wrong on this). Read up on Operation Dark Winter (2001 era wargame of a US smallpox outbreak) for details on how this might play out.…
Smallpox is roughly as contagious as SARS-Cov2 Delta and therefore more transmossible than the original variant. However those numbers are the unmitigated numbers. Public health and other authority figures have some advantages in fighting smallpox versus SARS-Cov2. IIRC, smallpox is not infectious until the "pox" are visible on the body, greatly improving ability to screen for the disease and the vaccine traditional…
were europeans conferred some residual resistance by variants being endemic across europe, but not the americas?