Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

cbc.ca

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

291–300 of 553 posts

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#291

Post by orthoxerox »

edrxty wrote: post #57
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

I really liked Canada mortgage and housing corporation abridged building code: https://chbanl.ca/wp-content/uploads/CMHC-Canadian-Wood-Fram...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#292

Post by reissbaker »

DeWilde wrote: post #276

Are houses in the US solely built using lumber/wood or do they have brick walls and concrete floors like here in Europe?

Very much depends. The foundation is always concrete, although for single-family or duplex homes the floor being concrete would pretty non-standard (that's usually wood, tile, or faux-wood e.g. vinyl, laminate). The framing is generally lumber. The exterior siding can come in any number of forms: stucco, wood, metal, vinyl, brick, etc. Brick in particular is rare on the west coast, FWIW, due to seismic conditions, but is much more common in the east.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#293

Post by karolist »

orthoxerox wrote: post #280
dubberx wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you consider sharing an url to the blog you mentioned? Planning to DIY myself a tinyhouse so I’d love to read a blog like that. (Contact info in my profile if you don’t want to post it publicly)

Masonry is usually harder than framing, especially when you live in the US where framing is overwhelmingly more popular. You can get pre-cut studs for your preferred ceiling height; OSB, housewrap, insulation, windows all match standard frame dimensions; roof trusses are common and affordable; renting a nailer and a miter saw is easy. I don't know if it's the same guy, but I watched videos of a guy laying aerated con…

I think you've hit the nail on the head recognising it's very location dependent. In Northern EU, if I built a house alone or with little help I'd definitely go for AAC (autoclaved aerated concrete) blocks. They are relatively cheap, light weight so easy to handle and you can have a less "serious" foundation for them as opposed to silica blocks, if you buy from Aeroc or some other known company the dimensions will be spot on. You make cuts using a special saw (https://www.toolstation.com/irwin-concrete-hardpoint-saw/p43...) and you don't need a concrete mixer on the plot as these can be glued together, so basically you don't need water and electricity on your land and can transport the tools in and out in your wagon/pickup every day. In addition you can grind away imperfections, even cut new doors and windows later because the material allows for it. The downsides are poor sound insulation and needing special anchors for hanging stuff. It's also very easy to make grooves for wiring and pipes, which again, can be done alone and without electricity https://i2.wp.com/elektroznatok.ru/wp-content/uploads/2017/0...

Expertise required is getting the corners up precisely and being able to use a laser level and a string. You don't make ceilings/floors from these, the best option for multi-story house would be to have the floors done from a pre-fabricated concrete blocks which a crane would put on your walls https://baltparma.lt/39-large_default/perdangos-plokstes-pk...., this will give very stable floor. On the other hand, in US there's lots of framing expertise as you're saying and the options I've laid out are probably not as accessible.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#294

Post by magicalhippo »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut.

Some close relatives bought a plot in a newly developed area, and tried to find a contractor to build their home. After listening to others in the area, it was pretty clear there was a couple of good, reputable ones and one avoid-at-all-costs.

So they went with one of the reputable ones. The guy decides at some point to have a look and see how it's going, and finds a somewhat confused-looking 17 year old trying to pour the basement floor/deck on his own.

Guy asks wtf he's doing there. Turns out he's the son of the guy running the avoid-at-all-costs contractor, and this was the first time the kid had done this kind of thing. His dad had told him to go and fix this, so being an obedient son he gave it his best...

Of course the reputable company had hired the avoid-at-all-costs company to do the job since they were too busy for some reason...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#295

Post by imtringued »

mrcode007 wrote: post #125
renewiltord wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices. Oh, nice call out. I wish there was a way for me to get information on stuff like this in general. That is the proxies for the future like you say. Doesn’t have to be profitable. It could be stuff everyone trading lumber futures already knows. Just for curiosity and so I can validate my news source…

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipati…

> This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out)

Yeah and that was obviously the entire idea about the trump tariffs. Saw mills in the USA are insufficient, that's the point of the tariffs, those jobs are supposed to come back when capacity is being increased.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#296

Post by atombender »

Hendrikto wrote: post #205
okuboheavy wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately a container house will always end up both more expensive and worse than a traditionally built house. Containers are fantastic as containers but terrible for making a house with. As soon as you start cutting holes in them they lose a great deal of their structural strength which is their main advantage. Terrible to insulate and for condensation as well. The exception is if you’re happy with a single cont…

Could you elaborate on the high prices? I have a friend who plans on building a container house, and who is convinced that it will be much cheaper than a traditional house. Note that we live in Europe, where homes are build from stone and concrete, not wood and cardboard.

Grand Designs has an episode featuring a container house build. I recommend showing it your friend, as there might be a few things to learn.

As I recall, the biggest challenge was cutting out the sides while maintaining structural integrity. They ended up having to do a lot of complicated stuff to make it structurally sound, nearly negating the benefits of using containers in the first place.

But it looks great. I think the episode is on Netflix. Here [1] is an article with photos and a ten-minute clip from the episode.

[1] https://metalbuildinghomes.org/grand-designs-shipping-contai...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#297

Post by technothrasher »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #29
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Common practice in construction industry is to overcommit to too many projects, then raise prices until the most cost-conscious customers drop out. Now you’re only left with the customers willing to pay the highest prices. It’s not really about lumber prices. It’s about finding the highest construction prices that the market will bear. Can’t find the limit until you push so hard that some customers start dropping out…

> then raise prices until the most cost-conscious customers drop out.

Typically they don't even care about customers dropping out. They just work down their list from the highest quotes to the lowest. The customers who were quoted a low price simply never get their job started unless work dries up for the contractor.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#298

Post by throwaway0a5e »

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

>I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

Are we talking about heads on CNBC or the guys who were actually able to put eyes on the mills, rail yards and whatnot? Because this crash is spot on with what the latter was predicting. Everyone was over-producing to get in on high prices and the demand just wasn't there.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#300

Post by orthoxerox »

otterCompile wrote: post #206
10GBps wrote: post #6

I don't think prices are "cratering" so much as just returning to normal rather than price gouging. Now if I could just buy a GPU for a normal price...

It's so insane. My 5-year old GTX 1060 (320€) is still better than a new gtx 1650 for 250€. Right now there is no direction to upgrade my system except for byuing an apu, but since my 1060 is way faster this doesn't make sence unless i want to get rid of my gpu to get a smaller case (e.g. X300)

I was lucky to buy a 1080 Ti for like 500$ off a miner a few years back. Bitcoin at that moment ended up cheap enough that GPU mining became unprofitable, and everyone was liquidating their farms.
Post reply on HN