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Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

blogs.bmj.com

291–300 of 491 posts

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#291

" ...Ian Roberts, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, began to have doubts about the honest reporting of trials after a colleague asked if he knew that his systematic review showing the mannitol halved death from head injury was based on trials that had never happened. He didn’t, but he set about investigating the trials and confirmed that they hadn’t ever happened. They all…

well if the original studies are inadequate simply because N is too low, then grouping many of them can resolve that problem.

How do you correct for publication bias in these meta analyses? I really hope they do correct for it…

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#292
> Researchers progress by publishing research, and because the publication system is built on trust and peer review is not designed to detect fraud it is easy to publish fraudulent research. The business model of journals and publishers depends on publishing, preferably lots of studies as cheaply as possible. They have little incentive to check for fraud and a positive disincentive to experience reputational damage—and possibly legal risk—from retracting studies. Funders, universities, and other research institutions similarly have incentives to fund and publish studies and disincentives to make a fuss about fraudulent research they may have funded or had undertaken in their institution—perhaps by one of their star researchers. Regulators often lack the legal standing and the resources to respond to what is clearly extensive fraud, recognising that proving a study to be fraudulent (as opposed to suspecting it of being fraudulent) is a skilled, complex, and time consuming process. Another problem is that research is increasingly international with participants from many institutions in many countries: who then takes on the unenviable task of investigating fraud? Science really needs global governance.

Long excerpt but the best arguments defy paraphrasing. Arguably, Science would benefit more from decentralization than global governance, because more science could get done instead of spending time on the zero sum politicking of working the governance systems. When you train people to in-effect litigate their research as a case for approval of committees, the falsification of everything is an unavoidable outcome. It becomes like a legal dispute, where there is no truth, just the prosecution of their case to make anything stick they think they can.

It's not just health research, it's a couple generations of graduates who were given a simple blunt instrument in a system incentivised to popularize the use of that dull tool. The tool reduces to, "there is no truth, only power, words are just tools to struggle for it, responsibility is what you have when you don't have power, and if you take care of this system, it will take care of you, but if you call it out it will come for you first." That's the One Big Thing the hedgehog knows. If you practice it, you can rise to the top of almost anything without knowing much about it. The way to beat it is to set a bar of competence and concreteness.

Scrutiny of experimental data goes a long way to setting that bar.

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#293

"The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness." Richard Horton, current editor of The Lancet: https…

He talks about the case against science as well as bad studies like they are the same thing. Science is simply a method that can be done well or badly. The bad studies aren't fundamental to science itself.

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you a scientist? How is that relevant to my comment?

You suggest how scientists can act, their motivations, their freedom to disagree with the status quo, or those higher up the ladder in their field etc. You suggest how scientists will lose grants if they produce inconvenient science, etc etc. So I ask again. Are you a scientist? Have you written a grant application? Have you been punished? I AM a scientist, and I have never seen this hypothetical world.

It's a matter of your field of study. Climate change, in particular, is a minefield.

I am not saying what I said in a vacuum, this came out of conversations with actual climate science researchers and scientists that I had the opportunity to meet during the course of my work in aerospace. The context was a project were we were developing various systems and payloads for both the International Space Station and, eventually, the Artemis mission to the moon.

The message was quite clear: In a politically charged environment you have to be very careful not to ruffle feathers. Anything from your career to your funding could be at stake.

No, you are not going to find google-searchable interviews with such folks, again, that would be professional suicide.

You can find information that helps understand some of the forces at play. While not a full picture, it's enough to support the plausibility of my claim. You don't have to believer me, of course. It's your prerogative.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politicization_of_science

https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14258474/trump-inaugurati...

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/canadian-scien...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/17/britai...

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/358043-epa-blo...

https://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/truth-climate-change

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/battle-over-scien...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961...

etc.

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#295
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only this, academia is a really cushy job. When I was an economics RA literally half of the econ professors didn't work Fridays and barely worked summers. It was incredible you get paid 150k with that kind of schedule.

Interesting. In my experience professors might not be on campus teaching one or two days a week or in summer, but that's only because they are working their ass off from home, writing grant proposals, reviewing papers, doing basically anything to get funding, and trying to find time to manage their own research. I used to think it was a great gig too, since most professors had one or more small businesses on the side…

Agreed, you can definitely work from home, but you're being quite charitable -- 'let's assume their behind closed doors with no accountability and do everything we expect'.

This is basically how we ended up in the replication crisis to begin with. There's little to no accountability and people assume they're working hard and being honest.

5% of all degree granting universities are R1 or R2 research universities, e.g. Harvard, Stanford, etc. The vast majority of professors aren't obligated the conduct research or apply for grants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_university https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/how-...

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In fact, I think we can, in historical terms, state that energy requirements increase over time, they do not decrease. They do, and all energy needs can be met with solar, wind and grid energy storage. Or nuclear if you don't want to invest in energy storage for whatever reason. > The next element of the story is how we are going to replace the massive number of byproducts of fossil fuels that modern life pretty mu…

> They do, and all energy needs can be met with solar, wind and grid energy storage. Not true. Not even close. Particularly if you move away from optimal solar regions. In addition to that, manufacturing the grid energy storage capacity required to service planetary scale requirements will result in unspeakable consumption of natural resources (mining), pollution and environmental challenges. Not to speak of the amou…

A lot to parse here, so I just feel like picking a couple of points.

There exist lubricants for which non-fossil crude oil production sources are possible such as PAG and others. Likewise, there exist many plastics and synthetic rubber that are not petro based, however ethylene, which is a petrochemical byproduct, is still required for a lot of plastic uses. This doesn't matter much, it is totally possible to produce these things without vast ghg production.

The production of lubricants which are not burned do not contribute in large part to greenhouse gas emissions. It is fully possible to produce industrial petrochemicals such as plastics and lubricants that do not produce large ghg emissions from burning. Most lubricants are recycled, lots are done so by burning, these can instead become industrial stock for production of lubricants and plastics given research.

Diesel and fuels can also be produced from non-petro sources, this has been done in people's garages. Diesel engines can burn corn, peanut, canola, waste vegetable, some of them can run on Dexron III (this is petrol) and diesel created in a garage reactor from plant sources. Biofuels are not fossil fuels. Electrification of vehicles removes vast sums of ghg from vehicle emissions, the production source can be any other non-fossil source.

The thesis of your comment, I gather, is essentially:

>that case of not using fuels, such as gasoline, while still having a need for the massive number of heavier hydrocarbons that come out of the distillation process. Great, no gasoline. Now, where to you put that shit while you only, literally, use the bottom of the barrel? Ah, you destroy the planet. Got it.

The economics of gasoline and diesel as a byproduct of petrochemical production makes rather favorable economic rationale for fossil fuel uses, but it does not follow that the byproduct must therfore be burned or drank. CO2 reduction will be required to prevent greenhouse heating and climate destabilization. Once energy production has transitioned away from fossil sources, smaller amounts can be used without the full scale ghg emissions we are currently creating.

Not using gasoline does not mean you "you destroy the planet", you could for example, return it to the fossil fuel reservoir from which it came. Seems pretty stable.

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#297
post #20

I recently had the privilege of trying to do the right thing when I identified fraudulent research carried out by an institution in Austria. The initial response of the institution was positive but when I pressed for further details on how such things could happen suddenly nobody anymore would take my call. The research was paid for by a private company to pimp a nonsense product. The research was never published in…

I get you wouldn't want to name the institute, but that is shocking.

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#298

"The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness." Richard Horton, current editor of The Lancet: https…

This is also especially ironic considering The Lancet published a totally fabricated study that supposedly demonstrated how dangerous a Trump-touted Covid treatment was. https://www.the-scientist.com/features/the-surgisphere-scand...

The Lancet is no stranger to promoting pseudoscience. John Snow challenging the miasma theory of cholera really ground its gears.

Plus ça change...

Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?

#299
post #20

I recently had the privilege of trying to do the right thing when I identified fraudulent research carried out by an institution in Austria. The initial response of the institution was positive but when I pressed for further details on how such things could happen suddenly nobody anymore would take my call. The research was paid for by a private company to pimp a nonsense product. The research was never published in…

It seems well intentioned, but I'm not surprised at all about the outcome. I don't think you can expect the institution to implicate themselves like that. You have to realize that preventing legal and financial liabilities is the #1 priority for institutions. Unfortunately this includes when they are wrong. Even if the employees are "good" their lawyers will advise them against providing any details like that and mos…

> most are afraid of retaliation

Why does _this_ not pose a legal liability?

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