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Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

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Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#291
post #286
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I’ve no doubt the speakers in your Porsche example sound great, the German car industry LOVES to upsell a customer to a speaker with a designer label on it - every single brand in the VW group does it, BMW, Mercedes… I think the German manufacturers just understand their customers vanity, sadly, where being seen to have the brand matters. The label is practically more important than the sound beyond a certain p…

Every auto manufacturer does this. Include a "Bose", "Harmon Kardon", or "B&O" sound system as part of a multi-thousand dollar premium package. Speakers are still the same paper cones as the trash-tier sound system; only difference is in some amp tuning, a sub, and a few tweeters. No surprise: the resale value of these systems is pennies by comparison.

For my particular example, I can at least say that the Burmester tweeters seem significantly better over the Bose, being solid (and heavy) ribbon tweeters, and not light cone tweeters.

https://www.suncoastparts.com/product/SKUBERTWEET.html https://www.suncoastparts.com/product/SKU680TWEET.html

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#292
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement "Tesla market value is the same as everybody else put together" means either Tesla is expensive or everybody else is cheap or the statement is inaccurate. It's a little bit of all three. All other car companies are primarily debt financed rather than equity financed. Ford's market cap is $45B, but because it has $120B in debt which means it is worth $120B to it's bondholders and $45B to stockholders for…

> Climate change and the EV transition are going to be tough. That has to be depressing their valuations some. Does it have to be? I can imagine that going from 100 years[1] of internal combustion engines to an entirely different type of drive train is going to be jarring, to say the least. But neither are EV completely new at this point, nor is a car just its drive train. Surely other comparable transitions have bee…

Actually BMW started as a producer of aircraft engines...

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Borrowing something to sell it is a recursive behavior, as is buying shares of yourself. no, it isn't. this is nonsense, you're just trying to equate some reasonable market activities with something that sounds a bit scary and weird because you don't understand it. > ... in computer programming, we have to be careful about recursive behaviors. no, we don't. no more than of any other failure to terminate a loop.

I'll ignore the ad hominem parts of your comment. If I borrow a share and sell it, I can later borrow it again and sell it again. That is recursion. When it hits a base case -- eg, I get liquidated -- all of those shorts have to be simultaneously covered. Doing so can create a stronger bid than the float of the asset. > no, we don't. no more than of any other failure to terminate a loop. A loop that can be done in-pl…

This recursion concern is a theoretical one.

It's exceedingly rare in practice for the short float to exceed the public float, and there's an inbuilt negative feedback which stops this from happening. The larger the short float %, the lower EV shorting becomes, ceteris paribus, and eventually the marginal benefit becomes negative and no rational actor would add to a short. That's one of the reasons (among others) why we almost never see a short float above 100% of the public float.

Additional regulations aren't needed for this, because it's not a problem.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll ignore the ad hominem parts of your comment. If I borrow a share and sell it, I can later borrow it again and sell it again. That is recursion. When it hits a base case -- eg, I get liquidated -- all of those shorts have to be simultaneously covered. Doing so can create a stronger bid than the float of the asset. > no, we don't. no more than of any other failure to terminate a loop. A loop that can be done in-pl…

This recursion concern is a theoretical one. It's exceedingly rare in practice for the short float to exceed the public float, and there's an inbuilt negative feedback which stops this from happening. The larger the short float %, the lower EV shorting becomes, ceteris paribus, and eventually the marginal benefit becomes negative and no rational actor would add to a short. That's one of the reasons (among others) why…

That perspective would be more believable if it hadn't happened with GME. Once you know there is zero price elasticity of demand, the price ought to fly extremely high and therein lies the problem. It is totally antithetical to the concept of an orderly market.

When you find an edge case, the solution is to mitigate it, not to say "well it's an edge case so it will probably never come to fruition."

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This recursion concern is a theoretical one. It's exceedingly rare in practice for the short float to exceed the public float, and there's an inbuilt negative feedback which stops this from happening. The larger the short float %, the lower EV shorting becomes, ceteris paribus, and eventually the marginal benefit becomes negative and no rational actor would add to a short. That's one of the reasons (among others) why…

That perspective would be more believable if it hadn't happened with GME. Once you know there is zero price elasticity of demand, the price ought to fly extremely high and therein lies the problem. It is totally antithetical to the concept of an orderly market. When you find an edge case, the solution is to mitigate it, not to say "well it's an edge case so it will probably never come to fruition."

Zero price elasticity of demand is definitely antithetical to a healthy market.

What we disagree on is the role that short floats exceeding 100% plays in causing that.

The 3 causal factors behind squeezes are social media, public float, and short float. Short float is the least important variable of the three, by a large distance. GME-like moves happen fairly often, and in most cases these are low-float stocks without much short interest, such as SPI or PPSI, where only a small number of price-insensitive players are needed to cause a 2000% move.

In fact I think the short-float itself is mostly irrelevant from a first-order causality perspective. It's mostly only relevant insofar as it fuels narrative and herding on social media. If the GME short-float was 90% (instead of 130%), it would've reduced the squeeze potential largely to the extent that it reduces the potency of the social media narrative, but not so much beyond that.

My view is that no additional restrictions should be placed on short-selling. The practice itself is healthy because it encourages the uncovering of frauds (such as Wirecard), the practice is necessary for derivatives hedging, and the recursive nature poses very little risk of spiralling due to the inherent negative feedback yet would be rather expensive to regulate (and this negative feedback hypothesis is backed up by the empirical observation that there was only 1 stock with a > 100% short-float).

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#296
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing beats fossil fuels, what are you talking about?

New solar is cheaper than operating existing coal plants: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/10/23/its-cheaper-to-build-... Battery storage is becoming cost competitive with natural gas peaker plants: https://www.greentechmedia.com/webinars/webinar/will-energy-...

I'm quite skeptical, not sure those chinese PV panels consider the emissions generated by the mining, shipping and recycling of those panels.

"Cheap" or "cost competitive" is irrelevant if you don't consider the carbon cost.

It is very difficult to have an accurate carbon accounting, not to mention that fossil fuels will be burned when there's no wind or sun.

The best energy/carbon ratio has always been nuclear if you make an accounting on a full year.

It's important to define on what field one would compete, because there are no moral incentives to compete on carbon emissions, and monetary cost is decorrelated from the carbon cost. It's easy to shift emissions from one place to another. Anybody can say "green energy is cheaper", and define solar panels as being green while their carbon balance sheet is not so good.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones are not a commodity product. At the moment Teslas are. How will Tesla convince consumers that their car, with a high profit margin, is worth it over a mature EV vehicle from Ford, BMW, etc.

As of right now, the most mature EVs are Teslas. They've established themselves as the gold standard of EVs. If anything, their main hurdle is still convincing consumers to buy EVs instead of ICE cars.

That's irrelevant. Being a high quality or popular product doesn't stop it being a commodity.

Apple worked hard to make an iPhone a different product segment to a smart phone the App Store, iMessage and an ecosystem of Apple-compatible services and products. As a result of you want to buy an iPhone you need to pay the premium Apple is asking.

Tesla have the supercharger network and brand name recognition. Neither of them would allow them to completely own the EV market.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, but the person you were responding to was asking if this also meant that the upside was unlimited - so in your example the answer is 'yes', if you bought in at $300 the stock price can just keep going up without bound. Can you clarify why these are different?

If you win $300, good for you, if you win $430,000, that's even better for you, but the market doesn't really care which way that goes. However, if you lose $300 that you brought to the table, that's your problem, too bad for you. If you lose $430,000 when you only brought $300 to the table, that's beyond being just your problem, that's the system's problem. A system which allows this situation to happen is fundament…

I get that, but it sounds like you are answering the question you wanted to instead of "what does unlimited mean if that loss is an unlimited downside but holding a stock is not called unlimited upside".

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon and Apple are WAY WAY WAY different companies than Tesla. Apple has dominated high-end smartphones for over a decade. Amazon has dominated eCommerce for that time and longer. Tesla dominates EV, which is a tiny portion of all auto sales. There is about to be huge competition in the EV space from legacy auto manufacturers and a car is not the same as a phone. There are plenty of cars with a WAY better driving e…

Sounds like a two pronged question. Will EVs dominate auto sales? And will Tesla dominate the EV market.

EVs will dominate the market at some point in the next 15-25 years or so.

Tesla is priced as if it's going to absolutely dominate the automotive market. And there's no reason to believe that's true.

Automotive is currently a super fragmented market with many players, why will that change in a couple decades when it has been true for the past century or so?

There will be at least 3-4 major players in NA just as there are now, maybe more.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That perspective would be more believable if it hadn't happened with GME. Once you know there is zero price elasticity of demand, the price ought to fly extremely high and therein lies the problem. It is totally antithetical to the concept of an orderly market. When you find an edge case, the solution is to mitigate it, not to say "well it's an edge case so it will probably never come to fruition."

Zero price elasticity of demand is definitely antithetical to a healthy market. What we disagree on is the role that short floats exceeding 100% plays in causing that. The 3 causal factors behind squeezes are social media, public float, and short float. Short float is the least important variable of the three, by a large distance. GME-like moves happen fairly often, and in most cases these are low-float stocks withou…

100% of float isn't necessarily the point where short interest gets dangerous, and an individual share (imagine you tag it and track it) can be sold short and lent out again for short sale in repeated transactions, even if short interest is nowhere close to fully saturating the float. The point where shorts equal the float is simply a salient mile marker. When shorts cover aggressively or get liquidated, natural sellers who figure out what's going on will hold out for a higher price because they know the bid will persist. All of this is tied into the problem with no-locate short selling. Market-makers have a profit motive to offer shares below where the natural sellers would be offered, because in addition to profiting from the dislocation between trade price and the value of the asset, they also profit from encouraging two-way activity because it means more business for them. It plays out like this:

* ShortSeller Capital chases the stock higher as it covers a toxic short in XYZ stock,

* XYZ stock gets so elevated that market-makers can't resist selling it short despite having no borrow in the name,

* ShortSeller Capital has handed its short off to a market-maker who will patiently work itself out of the short shares.

Here we encounter one of the problems with the locate exemption for bona fide market makers. There's no need for a natural seller to be involved in a short-covering transaction, even if there is zero borrow available to market-makers. In other words, the market-makers sell something that they have no means to deliver, but the regulations give them extra time to wait for it to materialize in the market later. The clearinghouse carries counterparty risk against the market-maker in the interim.

If the market-maker cannot buy or borrow in time, the problem loops but you get one fewer market participant who is willing/able to sell the shares, and therein lies the runaway condition.

> The practice itself is healthy because it encourages the uncovering of fraud

I reluctantly agree with this oft-repeated refrain. Long holders have an equal or greater incentive to discover frauds when compared to short-sellers. The difference is that short sellers have a greater incentive to draw attention to fraud. After longs close, they have very little reason to share suspicions of fraud because there is zero financial upside and some reputation risk involved.

Yet presumably in so highly regulated an industry as high finance, is the job of government to enforce laws and uncover fraud.

> the practice is necessary for derivatives hedging

Equity derivatives hedging would get very complicated without short selling, price discovery would get weirder, and liquidity would obviously get thinner. That said, I doubt a weakening of put/call parity would hurt the economy in any meaningful way. It's not the same as, say, commodity derivatives where being short a future is a straightforward position for producers, and where options on futures can serve as a form of insurance for firms whose operations depend on the underlying commodities. In the equity market, who really needs to own a put if they can simply sell the stock or trade CDS? How much of the institutional volume is hedge fund speculation that provides essentially zero utility to people outside of the institutional equities business?

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