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Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

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Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#291

Post by ArchD »

saalweachter wrote: post #279
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

I'm sympathetic to the argument that Ponzi schemes inherently have a small group propagating the fraud while presenting the illusion of a real business, so describing Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme may be technically inaccurate. If I understand the tweets correctly, Taleb, et al, are basically saying that the mining pool functions as the insiders in a Ponzi scheme, by outcome if not intent. The argument is that a Ponzi sc…

How is BTC mining a Ponzi scheme in a way that gold mining isn't? Neither require any insider information and new entities can join in the mining. In fact BTC mining has lower barriers to entry because it doesn't require license, land rights, etc.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#292

Post by pyrale »

saalweachter wrote: post #279
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

I'm sympathetic to the argument that Ponzi schemes inherently have a small group propagating the fraud while presenting the illusion of a real business, so describing Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme may be technically inaccurate. If I understand the tweets correctly, Taleb, et al, are basically saying that the mining pool functions as the insiders in a Ponzi scheme, by outcome if not intent. The argument is that a Ponzi sc…

> I'm sympathetic to the argument that Ponzi schemes inherently have a small group propagating the fraud

The existence of a group of insiders runing the scheme is really a detail when it comes to understanding how the market works. If it works like a ponzi scheme, does it really make a difference for the victims whether or not some people get arrested?

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#293

Post by totalZero »

asdev wrote: post #240
SturgeonsLaw wrote: post #22

That "article" doesn't add anything beyond the fact that "this guy wrote a tweet and here's what it said". Why is such low quality filler getting traction on HN? Is it because anti-crypto posts push people's buttons? Every day there is something like this posted, and like clockwork the comments are full of the same arguments both on the pro and anti crypto sides. Am I an idiot for expecting better from HN?

HN is very anti crypto, they love the echo chamber of FUD that will be disproven

There's a difference between being anti crypto and being a crypto skeptic. It would make sense for technologists to be skeptical about a technological service during its massive ramp-up among laypeople, because the acceleration in demand isn't driven by fact-based reasoning. I see a lot of herd mentality, coupled with easy money and no real returns elsewhere.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#294

Post by pyrale »

iambateman wrote: post #269
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

Do you have a sense of what that depreciation factor is? If it’s nearly equivalent to overall population growth, it may not matter. (For what it’s worth, I’m with you for the most part. Just curious. I’ve been short-term wrong on BTC since $102 and I’m trying to figure out if I’m long-term wrong as well.)

Someone else quoted $10B worth of electricity yearly, at current price. Given that number, and knowing that it evolves with market cap, that's about 1% depreciation/year.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#296

Post by gruez »

bob33212 wrote: post #277
pyrale wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

Good point. The problem is that some people think it is a currency instead of an investment. Other people think it is an investment instead of a currency. It can't be both. Currencies have to be less valuable over time, otherwise no one would ever spend the currency. Investments have cost more overtime otherwise no would would invest. But both groups are buying and driving up the price. Also, there is a 3rd group tha…

>Currencies have to be less valuable over time, otherwise no one would ever spend the currency.

Isn't this only true with the removal of the gold standard?

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#297

Post by Icedcool »

sonthonax wrote: post #290
tim333 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economically it's much more like gold than a ponzi scheme: Gold: Asset that goes up and down in price according to demand. No central body controlling it. Some utility as jewelry though we could get by without that. Massive dollar and environmental cost from mining the stuff. Ponzi scheme: Fraud where insiders take money from investors and use it to pay other investors. Collapses and the fraudsters run off or go to j…

Gold has a lot more intrinsic value than bitcoin will ever have. It’s quite reasonable to explain a large part of gold’s price as speculation on continued demand for jewellery. There’s a 5000 year history of gold. But only a few grams per person in this world; and a great number of people feel some sort of pressure to buy a few grams for their spouses. Obviously what I’m saying is an oversimplification. But if we ima…

I’d contend that money(any fiat), like Bitcoin, like gold has no intrinsic value.

Historic precedence doesn’t exist... till it does.

No one wants to carry around chickens to trade.

The value of a monetary asset is in its interoperability, and backers of Bitcoin are working to enable that to a high degree.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#298

Post by sonthonax »

ckastner wrote: post #186
lindy2021 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset.” It’s intentional: https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/129716309534169907...

I don't recall Taleb calling others idiots much in his book. I do recall Taleb admiring himself, though. A lot .

He’s just a pathological narcissist that functionally aliterate traders think is a philosopher.

His books are mostly unoriginal fluff that could be expressed in a few pages.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#299

Post by gruez »

Retric wrote: post #281
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What investment is not a Ponzi scheme? Real estate and stocks rely on a greater fool that was later to the party to come buy them at a later date. Stocks have appreciated in value so far past what they are worth for a dividend that we have had to give up that charade long ago. From the wiki for Ponzi scheme- > The scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from legitimate business activity (e.g. product…

Stocks have dividends, loans have interest, land has either rents or utility from using it. It’s that income stream beyond the initial capital that turns something into an investment. Bitcoin lacks that, it only has money from new investors and it loses money from mining. Which means without new investment it’s value must crash which creates incentives for people that own Bitcoin to convince others to buy Bitcoin. Th…

>Stocks have dividends

when was the last time TSLA paid out a dividend?

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#300

Post by gm3dmo »

pyrale wrote: post #259
tim333 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economically it's much more like gold than a ponzi scheme: Gold: Asset that goes up and down in price according to demand. No central body controlling it. Some utility as jewelry though we could get by without that. Massive dollar and environmental cost from mining the stuff. Ponzi scheme: Fraud where insiders take money from investors and use it to pay other investors. Collapses and the fraudsters run off or go to j…

Gold is stable in isolation. If you bury gold in your backyard, and dig it up 20 years later, you will still have the exact same amount of gold. The exchange rate between gold and other things won't change that. On the other hand, for btc to keep value, you need people to mine it from to the moment you buy it to the moment you sell it. This has a cost, which is currently paid by newcomers. But if btc becomes stable (…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-556...

Burying bitcoin in a garbage pit hasn't paid off yet but given time and patience. Who knows?

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