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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#291

Post by _Microft »

salex89 wrote: post #29

Great news, but I think the importance of the -80 degrees centigrade storage requirement is underestimated. Serbia, where I live, has ordered this vaccine. And our medical system is far from world-class, but leaps and bounds from less developed countries, and I honestly think logistics here will not be able to match those requirements. I've seen tetanus vaccines just being kept in regular, commercial, refrigerators.…

Germany is planning to establish centers for vaccination exactly to avoid problems with the continous cold chain. (People travel without issue at ambient temperature. They even prefer that to other temperatures;)

I would assume that other nations will adopt similiar solutions for vaccines that have ultra-cold storage requirements.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#292

Post by bryanlarsen »

benlumen wrote: post #149

I'm feeling a deep-seated wave of relief that I never thought possible. Like waking up from a year-long nightmare. Thank God.

Seeing the light at the end of the tunnel means it's more important than ever to isolate and stop this third wave ASAP.

It's hard enough to see loved ones die or to suffer life long side effects if lockdowns only delay it. But to have it happen just a couple months before a vaccine was available would be incredibly hard.

The prospect of a vaccine should make isolation much more bearable mentally. We're past halfway, folks!

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#293

Post by bluntfang »

tinus_hn wrote: post #189
jason0597 wrote: post #186

Why are people in the comments so interested in the reactions of stock markets? I don't understand. These are the same markets that cheer when job cuts and redundancies are announced. These are the same markets that cheer when horrible working conditions are enforced (see Tesla, Uber, Deliveroo, etc.) Why should I take the markets seriously? It's just a bunch of rich people in the end.

You should take the markets seriously if you want to make a lot of money. That’s why rich people are rich.

most rich people are rich because they were never not rich

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#294

Post by TomGullen »

cblconfederate wrote: post #180
TomGullen wrote: post #2

Great news and the markets are reacting very positively to the news as well which indicates to me this could be the beginning of the end!

the markets? that would be bad news because the markets have had no touch with reality for a long time

That's the popular view but I don't think they've been as irrational as lots of people think.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#295

Post by bluGill »

m12k wrote: post #100

I wonder if any of the other vaccine candidates offer 100% protection, or near it at least? Still, if everyone got this vaccine, then the infectiousness of the virus would be decimated, so if currently every infected person infects 5 people, in a vaccinated population they would instead infect 0.5 people, causing the pandemic to decline instead of accelerate exponentially like it does now.

We don't know that. It might be that your body just doesn't become symptomatic, but you are still able to spread. In this case everyone vaccinated should be considered a super-spreader because they will continue to do what they were before.

Note, the above scenario seems very unlikely. However we don't have enough data to rule it out.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#296

Post by koalala »

3dbrows wrote: post #5

At the time of writing (2020-11-09 12:04 UTC) the article uses "90% of people" and "90% protection" interchangeably. I assume it means "90% of individuals achieve immunity", rather than "individuals achieve 90% immunity". EDIT: See child comment re: Pfizer press release. EDIT 2: See [1] for said press release, which has more detailed information than the BBC article. [1] https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/pre…

The way these studies (most of the big trials finishing up soon, and this one too) are set up is that they measure the percentage of people that will not get symptomatic covid-19, so the only thing that is measured is whether they get symptoms or not. So the result is that 90% (within a confidence interval) of people who are given this vaccine will not develop any covid symptoms. Transmission may be impacted, and the data will reveal hints about this, but it's impossible to draw hard statistical conclusions about that, and in general a different type of vaccine technology will be needed to end transmission and thus the pandemic. This will save countless lives though, and may end lockdowns, so a great day nonetheless.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#297

Post by camhart »

dEnigma wrote: post #266
camhart wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That the timing of the press release is interesting... first business day after the election is called. Massive corporations do have political agendas. I don't think anyone would argue they don't. But maybe it's just coincidence?

First business day after the election was called, but not after the election itself (i.e. people couldn't vote after 11/02). Or are you saying that they were planning on not releasing this at all in case of a Trump win and not just trying to influence the election?

The thought didn't even cross my mind that they'd hold the vaccine for political reasons. Just the press release. Holding the vaccine itself for political reasons would be murder on a mass scale.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#298

Post by innomatics »

Roonerelli wrote: post #132
3dbrows wrote: post #5

At the time of writing (2020-11-09 12:04 UTC) the article uses "90% of people" and "90% protection" interchangeably. I assume it means "90% of individuals achieve immunity", rather than "individuals achieve 90% immunity". EDIT: See child comment re: Pfizer press release. EDIT 2: See [1] for said press release, which has more detailed information than the BBC article. [1] https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/pre…

Excellent news it's so high. For comparison, MMR is 88% effective on Mumps "One dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella. Two doses of MMR vaccine are 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps." https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html#:~:te... .

It is great news.

I didn't see the case numbers but I've inferred to arrive at 90% that there were 9 cases in vaccinated group vs 85 in controls. (95% C.I. 80-99%)

Very interested to see forthcoming results from competitors that don't face the -80 degrees issue.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#299

Post by turing_complete »

collyw wrote: post #216
y7 wrote: post #16

Pfizer's press release with more information: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201109005539/en/ - Vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis - Analysis evaluated 94 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in trial participants - Study enrolled 43,538 participants, with 42% having div…

"diverse backgrounds" What does that mean exactly? Surely a random sample of people will have diverse backgrounds.

I found that strange too. Diverse is a relative term, not an absolute one.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#300

Post by TomGullen »

mettamage wrote: post #117
strombofulous wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand, aren't future events supposed to be already considered in the stock price? It's not like a vaccine was unpredictable

+1 Thanks for putting it so succinctly. I really hope someone who knows a thing or two about the efficient market hypothesis can elighten us a bit.

If a stocks price is $100, and tomorrow there will be a news event where there is a 50% chance it will be worth $50, and a 50% chance it will be worth $200, the trading value today should probably be around $125 (it's expected value or EV, $200 + $50 / 2).

When the defining event actually occurs, it will either move from $125 to $50, or $125 to $200.

So the news event in this example is priced in at $125, but there is still scope for big moves when certainty is realised.

Obviously in real life the values are never as certain. In the above example if the stocks ever trades EMH shouldn't be taken seriously as the market actors are compromised of irrational humans.

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