Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals • Hacker News Board

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#291

Post by DoreenMichele » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:25 PM UTC

yters wrote: post #205

DoreenMichele wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And much more effective. We need things that get results with fewer resources. We simply don't have the resources to do it the way a lot of people would like to do it.

not sure why you get the downvotes. this is really good and extremely actionable

There have been a few people following me around and harassing me.

I'm not a doctor. Much of what I know about managing serious lung issues is because I have serious lung issues. That is being used as an excuse to say I have no right to talk about what I know because it's medical in nature and I don't have a medical degree.

I'm also a woman and that often goes weird places in online discussions. People have different expectations for women than for men.

There's also a pandemic on. People are cranky and scared and looking for a proverbial dog to kick.

Downvotes or other negative reactions can beget more of such. People can just react based on social signaling, especially if it is a touchy subject or they have personal baggage or are upset for some reason.

Etc.

Hopefully it will settle down soon and people will engage more in the future with the actual points I'm trying to make and focus less on what they feel are my personal deficiencies or whatever.

We aren't really supposed to talk about downvotes. I usually try to abide by that guideline. I'm leaving this comment because it's really meta commentary on how panic and such works in a crisis. Hopefully it will be enlightening for a few people and help them more effectively navigate the current online social climate generally.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#292

Post by JohnTHaller » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:28 PM UTC

It's bad here in NYC. I have multiple friends symptomatic after contact with confirmed infected. One knows he was in contact with confirmed infected because the one of their group that went back to Canada was tested there and came back positive. Of all of sick friends with confirmed exposure, only a single one has been tested and it's because he's currently in the hospital under quarantine on oxygen with a tentative pneumonia diagnosis. We just don't have test kits.

My partner and I are both sick and self isolating. My friends who are nurses are saying it's bad where they are and they're running out of supplies. And we're not due to hit the height of hospitalizations for another 3 weeks. 911 in NYC is already at Sept 11th levels.

Stay home, stay safe. Only call 911 in an emergency. Ignore the president, listen to epidemiologists and medical professionals. "anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful" - Trump, March 6

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#293

Post by StrangeDoctor » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:29 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #272

StrangeDoctor wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A more charitable reading of the comment would be an annoyance of anecdotes without underlying prevalence data to contextualize the info. It would be all too easy for the media to pick a healthy senior with a mild case and tout “it sucks but it’s not so bad” or find cases of healthy 18yo dying in horrific conditions to fit their overall narrative.

Data by itself doesn't cut it. That nurse in London didn't commit suicide because of data. She did is because she couldn't face the reality of treating so many patients dying in agony.

I’m not arguing for just data, I’m arguing for both. I would be equally “annoyed” if it were just data.

Just data wouldn’t give me sympathy/empathy and not being a medical professional I’m not familiar with diagnostic or clinical language. Data won’t properly convey the suffering unless you’ve seen it.

I’m weary of just anecdotes because it is impossible for me to be able to allocate my limit resources efficiently. I’m not saying this isn’t important or can only be validated when enough people are devastated.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#294

Post by dec0dedab0de » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:30 PM UTC

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #231

Zelphyr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do. Helps that I live with a Nurse Practitioner. However, the number of people I know who are convinced that getting the flu shot makes them sick or gives them the flu and thus refuse to get the shot is shocking. Some things I've actually heard: "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. "It's a LIVE VIRUS! Everybody knows this!" No, it's not. You're just an idiot hanging around with idiots.

I used to skip the flu shot because getting a week home from work every 3-6 years was nice. This year I got

I meant to say this year I got the flu and it was very bad. I realized that since I work from home now the week home is not worth it. I'm going to start getting flu shots.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#295

Post by thu2111 » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

49para wrote: post #117

BurningFrog wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only hard data we have are death numbers. They're awful enough: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest Other hard data takes time to collect and will only be reliable once the disaster has swept through.

Even the death numbers are going to be off. Lot of deaths either were attributed to the ultimate cause (i.e. heart attack) or happened at home and haven't been attributed to covid as of yet.

No, it's the other way around. Normally deaths would be specifically linked to e.g. the flu, but in this case, all deaths are being tested for COVID-19 and mostly assigned with that as the 'cause' even if there were other causes like heart failure.

There was an article in the Spectator today where a doctor made that point: that this disease has been made a 'notifiable disease' whereas a normal flu wouldn't be, meaning each death gets tested and reported up to the government if positive, whereas for other types of coronavirus the death would just be marked as pneumonia, for example. The data isn't being treated consistently.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#296

Post by rootusrootus » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:35 PM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #157

gridlockd wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same question to you: The last time you had "the flu", did you get tested for Influenza? Are you sure it was Influenza and not a common cold, for which there is no vaccine anyway?

Taking to some nurse friends they say a lot of people think they have the flu when it's a bad cold. And some people just appear to not be very susceptible. Friends that have gotten the flu appear to be laid out flat for week or more. Based on that I think I've never had the flu.

> laid out flat for week or more

That sounds about right. I did not really appreciate the distinction between a bad cold and the flu until I finally got the flu. I gained a real appreciation for why it kills weaker people.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#297

Post by throw1234651234 » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #269

throw1234651234 wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the point of contention - a lot of vaccines have historically included a live virus that has been stored for a while, often in a frozen and/or dried out form. Are you saying that a lot of vaccines are NOT weakened versions of the actual virus which can give you the sickness if your immune system is weak? Or are you saying that the commonly used flu vaccine in the US does not utilize a live form of…

The latter. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/misconceptions.htm > No, flu vaccines cannot cause flu illness. Flu vaccines given with a needle (i.e., flu shots) are currently made in two ways: the vaccine is made either with a) flu viruses that have been ‘inactivated’ (killed) and that therefore are not infectious, or b) using only a single gene from a flu virus (as opposed to the full virus) in order to produce an imm…

Fair enough. Though I do think people need to understand that OTHER vaccines do use live viruses, and that's where the confusion comes from.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#298

Post by TomMckenny » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:46 PM UTC

downerending wrote: post #271

TomMckenny wrote: post #122

Judging from the comments, explaining the severity of the epidemic is now politically charged. Epidemiologists and the medical field have made it clear we are _under_ reacting. But apparently some politicians want to down play the problem and their obfuscation is echoed in every corner of the web with great zeal and again drowning out reality. It's like the climate change denial phenomenon but at high speed.

Epidemiologists know a lot about epidemics, but they're not necessarily as good at figuring out the total effect of pandemic in the long term (for example, how economic effects could kill large numbers via suicide and general want). It's very important to have people looking at the total picture. Beyond that, even the politics is not falling in predictable lines. There was a report this morning that the mayor of New…

But trends in suicide including economic causes are handled by epidemiology[1]

It is great that attention is now being paid to this subject. Although the overall suicide rate has continued to _rise_ in spite of 11 years of a rising DOW, the suicide rate among those approaching retirement has risen significantly in the last decades. From past trends we know this is directly related to social security[2]. I sincerely hope the attention continues and solutions are pursued and deeply hope that, as some think, it is not a cynical ploy.

Likewise, I hope the sudden concern for food security among the vulnerable poor continues.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_suicide

[2] https://books.google.com/books?id=ESSEHA5TyoIC&pg=PA360&lpg=...

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#299

Post by thu2111 » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 6:55 PM UTC

DoofusOfDeath wrote: post #13

rimliu wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are useful to know, but they have one fundamental problem: they erode trust. Though it is up for debate on how much trust in the political system and mass media there is left in the US.

Can you elaborate on how they (the anecdotes, I assume) erode trust?

I think part of the problem is that these sorts of anecdotes have been reported in previous bad flu years. That's perhaps a part of why people think it's just a bad flu. You can easily find reports (see above) where doctors describe their hospitals as "like the third world", needing tent wards, like war time, overloaded, people on beds in corridors etc from prior years. They sounded like a disaster had struck at the time too, because the media highlights the most dramatic anecdotes.

A bit like audio compression - if everything is compressed to the same volume then it gets really hard to tell how loud things are relative to each other.

Another problem is people encounter stories where there are anecdotes in the other direction e.g. today I read stories about Ticino, Japan, Germany where hospitals are waiting for an influx, but it doesn't seem to be growing in the expected way. Why? Unclear. These stories of course get less attention.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#300

Post by nucleardog » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

Ididntdothis wrote: post #127

TallGuyShort wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are probably referring to the immune response. The flu shot does trigger an immune response and other side effects, so having a fever, muscle aches, etc. is not made up. I too have a far more severe reaction every time I get a flu shot than I've ever had from actual flu.

Same here. I got flu shots twice In my life and both times felt worse than any flu I have had without.

Last time my wife and I came down with what we're reasonably sure was the flu she was bed-ridden and rarely conscious for two weeks, and I was barely mobile basically only out of necessity (someone had to get out of bed to feed us and let the dogs out).

I felt worse than I'd ever felt in my life. Everything hurt when I moved or when I didn't. My head was killing me. I never stopped coughing. It woke me up at all hours of the night and took me hours to get back to sleep. I was drinking cough syrup like it was candy just to get some barely passable naps during the night. It eventually devolved into pneumonia.

By the time I recovered and came back to work, I'd coughed so much I no longer had any voice.

I'd thought I'd had the flu before, but like many other people are saying it was pretty quickly apparent that it had always just been colds. I got the flu the first time when I was almost 30. I too would be extremely surprised if your reaction to the flu shot was anywhere near as bad as a flu.