Live data from Hacker News

3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

291–300 of 711 posts

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we raise the denominator to make the percentages look better, there is no denying that hospitals are being overwhelmed. The flu often already pushed hospitals to the edge, so even only (heh) 5x worse will cause most hospital systems collapse.

Should 1000 people go unemployed to save one person?

Phrased differently, are you willing to die to give employment to 1000 people?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you do the calculation then, instead of dismissing an article/calculation based on something you're not even sure is true?

You want me to . . . hand-calculate market-weighted total return of an index? Without access to the underlying financials? That's a big ask for an internet comment. I didn't dismiss the article. I provided additional context that might be helpful in evaluating its claims. You are free to do with that what you will. https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/indices/nyse_arca_globa... "The Index tracks the price performance…

> You want me to . . . hand-calculate market-weighted total return of an index? Without access to the underlying financials? That's a big ask for an internet comment.

Here’s a handy tool to do just that! Unfortunately only goes back to 2007, so not useful in present case of airline stocks. But a very useful tool.

https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#293

Won't know for sure until Apr 03 (The Day BLS releases the official unemployment rate for March) but this may very well trip the Sahm recession indicator, which has correctly predicted/detected every US recession back to 1950 (If it's been further backfitted I can't find the data). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT

I don't think you need a black magic/AI/fancy algorithm to tell whether there is a recession or not

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#294
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is where it's very important to distinguish between financial conditions and material conditions. Feeding children and supplying respirators and masks are material conditions, dependent on the production and distribution systems. Paying rent and mortgage, on the other hand, isn't material . If you don't pay it nothing material changes - it's not an iron law of the world in the way that hunger is, evictions are a…

Mortgages and by extension rent provide liquid funds to banks so that account holders, including essential business's like hospitals, farmers, and factories can pay their employees and bills. You are delusional to think it is possible to suspend payments without printing massive amounts of money that will certainly lead to more death.

shrug we provided liquidity last time and can do so again. Money printing doesn't kill people, viruses do. The banks are intermediaries. The essential businesses are not affected provided we do not let the banks fail randomly, and there is no need to do that.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? There were a number of submissions yesterday to HN discussing the relative merits of sacrificing millions for the sake of the market. Perhaps you missed those?

The problem with that black and white reasoning is that on some level "the market" represents people's livelihoods and eventually there comes a point where it's reasonable to say "X people should die to prevent Y amount of hardship for Z people".

I agree. It's easy to fall in the trap of "human life above all else", but there comes a time where tradeoffs become reasonable.

Society already does this with the automobile. 36,000 people die every year for the convenience of driving, which I feel is a completely reasonable tradeoff, and this is not a controversy, at least in the united states.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#296
post #280
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary, setbacks for globalization may very well leave us better off...after all, globalization is one of the main factors why we're experiencing this deadly pandemic now, and have vast swathes of our supply chain for essential pharmaceuticals and medical equipment farmed out to evil, duplicitous regimes like the Chinese state.

> after all, globalization is one of the main factors why we're experiencing this deadly pandemic now Not so. Pandemics travelled around the world before globalization. The black death, smallpox in the americas, syphllis. This just increases the speed.

Speed is, however, an important factor in the severity of the impact.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#297

A year from now, will we look back and say it was worth the suffering for something 5x as bad as the flu? (based on Germany’s numbers, which are more fully accounting for those with mild symptoms) Shows how important testing randomly is, if the denominator is low because you are only testing those in the hospital, it looks like the second coming of the Spanish flu.

Germany hasn’t reached health system overwhelm. When systems overwhelm, the death rate spikes. Both from corona and also from other causes that now can’t be treated.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."

How is shrinking the government to blame? It's expanded colossal ever since the new deal. Grover Norquist, the guy you're quoting, is not an elected official. He was just saying what he believes. That's pretty weak evidence for "the problem". The only nation that ended up containing it was China, because being able to tightly control what your population does is one of the perks of authoritarianism. That said, it doe…

I live in the US, I would prefer being anywhere else in the world right now. Even Italy is currently in a good position since they peaked and will likely recover in April. In the US, sky is the limit. There are almost 0 precautions to limit the spread. Even states that pretend to do something, actually does nothing. I live in MA, which has a shelter-in-place order, but all the businesses that I know of are classified as "essential" so all my friends are working business as usual. We're talking about people who work in random mailrooms, in random thrift shops etc. Businesses can do however they please because there is no regulation. And I think it's pretty clear US will likely experience millions of deaths by the end of April.

My point is, there is a huge spectrum between "China level authoritarianism" and "making government fit your bathtub". It's really frustrating to explain this again and again. We should not allow government to invade our private lives, but we also should have government regulating businesses, especially in time like this.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#299
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mortgages and by extension rent provide liquid funds to banks so that account holders, including essential business's like hospitals, farmers, and factories can pay their employees and bills. You are delusional to think it is possible to suspend payments without printing massive amounts of money that will certainly lead to more death.

shrug we provided liquidity last time and can do so again. Money printing doesn't kill people, viruses do. The banks are intermediaries. The essential businesses are not affected provided we do not let the banks fail randomly, and there is no need to do that.

Last time we had nowhere near the need for liquidity. There were bad mortgages, but they were the minority.

Currency inflation kills. Look at venezuela. You cannot shrug this off. At least consider the effects.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having worked on this type of application in the past they should find a new company to work with if they can't handle this traffic. We were handling hundreds of requests per second with ease 10 years ago. That was with MySQL and the app running on the same server. It doesn't take many resources to show the user a form, validate it, and save to a DB.

A bunch of armchair developers seem to have been summoned to tell the Federal government how to handle form submissions for an extremely security and privacy intense application using their fancy modern techniques. You are talking about comparing a basic web form with an application for unemployment benefits which must go into a federal tax database and be processed using a what I assume is a garbage mainframe system…

I also completely agree with this sentiment. A gov't form could be an unsightly complex beast that can't be re-architected, sometimes, ever.
Post reply on HN