291–300 of 499 posts
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I think Argentina problems come from borrowing in dollars, not from "printing" his own currency.
Inflation is their favorite tool to steal from the people. It's even illegal to purchase a high amount of US dollars now.
From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…
> fiscal policy can't really affect the real economy Fiscal policy ( e.g. the government buying tanks) absolutely affects the real economy. The central bank doesn't control fiscal policy. It controls monetary policy. Monetary policy also affects the real economy, just indirectly.
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Yes the not-so-hidden inflation has been rampant, but universal health care, basic income, and direct infrastructure investment would help, not hurt those. Let's go over Housing, healthcare, and education in turn: - Housing, overpriced because the jobs are concentrated, stupid zoning, etc. We deserve dense cities but UBI means no job, no stave, which in the short term takes away the demand to move. Let's not rest on…
Housing is overpriced because anyone can go to a bank and get as much cash as the house is appraised for, which is circular. So the actual constraint is just the inverse of interest rates. The same goes for education. There are underlying supply problems with each of these that need to be directly addressed, but they're exacerbated by the current economic policy of giving out as much rope needed to hang one's self. I…
The appraised value is just a signal how much collateral a bank can rely on for the loan, which is why most loans with good interest rates have a maximum loan to value ratio. Banks don't want to own houses, they want to own a piece of the borrower's future productivity, manifested as interest payments.
The limited housing/transit supply (due to zoning restrictions) coupled with concentrated job growth are what drives up housing costs.
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The "passing the problem to the next generation" thing doesn't make any sense. There are two possibilities: If in 25 years there wil be enough real resources (machines, infrastructure, knowledge..) for covering all the needs of the people, the accumulate debt is not going to be a problem. If in 25 years there will not be enough real resources, the government finances are going to be irrelevant. So, what is the best w…
Anything but cutting spending, huh?
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" ... I'm still slightly bearish on the whole situation due to the combination of the virus' absurdly high infection rate[0] and its ridiculous ~25-30 day incubation period ..." You're right to highlight those aspects of the virus and I find them noteworthy as well. However, the statistics I am most interested in is mortality rate and rate of asymptomatic infections. I note with interest that among the 700+ infected…
> among the 700+ infected on the cruise ship, there were 6 deaths Your death count is incorrect. Several deaths occurred after cruise members returned to their home country, and are currently counted as deaths in their home country instead of the cruise ship. Take for example: 78-year-old man in Perth - got infected on the cruise ship - but counted as a death in Australia.
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I am always surprised when software engineers have such strong opinions on monetary policy. Black and white statements like "There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus" aren't the best for macroeconomics discussions that rely on imperfect information and multiple related variables. Your wording makes it sound like you know more about macro than the best minds in monetary policy.
Software engineers are uniquely qualified to analyze supply chains and supply chain problems. In this case, technical analysis looks a whole lot different than the chicken bone divination stuff you see with thinkorswim or other trading platforms...
Care to substantiate it? Why? At the very least businesspeople should be more qualified because that's what they deal with? Just because software engineers have to think for a living and do some math sometimes doesn't mean they are experts in every field where that is used...
This is a big mistake. There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus, because this is not a demand problem, it is a supply problem. The economy WILL slow down because the major parts of the economic chain have been considerably affected by this virus. You cannot use more money when there is less to buy and sell. This will happen simply because whatever solution to the virus disruption will…
I am always surprised when software engineers have such strong opinions on monetary policy. Black and white statements like "There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus" aren't the best for macroeconomics discussions that rely on imperfect information and multiple related variables. Your wording makes it sound like you know more about macro than the best minds in monetary policy.
No. People are reacting to this virus by actively choosing to avoid conferences, travel, restaurants, movies, shops, and sporting events. They aren’t doing it because they’ve run out of money or are trying to save. They’re doing it because they don’t want to get sick. The Fed can’t will people back out into normal life by cutting interest rates.
And that’s why the market is basically flat today after this announcement. The market has nearly universally reacted to this rate cut with ambivalence.
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Not in an election year.
Trump will not let the recession occur, because he's so afraid of losing.
Now, they have recently done basically what Trump asks. Are they succumbing to Trump's pressure, or is Trump asking them to do what actually is the right thing?
From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…
if this was more like SARS with a 10% IFR, with equally high mortality rates among young people, then I would be very worried. But this virus seems to be the opposite. most factory workers fit in that cohort of people in that the virus effects the least so I don't see supply chains suffering.