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Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

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Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#291

Post by chaostheory »

laurieg wrote: post #261
jameslk wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan is not a very good proxy due to their strict immigration policies and preference to be an "ethnically homogeneous nation." As you mentioned, other countries can just replenish their head count through relaxed immigration. I'd wager, for example, that the US will remain highly multicultural with looser immigration long term since it's baked into its identity[0], despite some recent policy changes. 0. https://en.…

"Japan has strict immigration policies" is often repeated, but I don't think this is tells the whole story. Some of the policies are very permissive: * If you graduated university and have a 'skilled' job in Japan, you are likely to get a visa. There is no cap on the number of these. There is no language requirement. * If you live in Japan for over 5 years continuously you can apply for citizenship, though you must r…

Yes, non-Japanese ex-pats are welcome to visit, but they are definitely not welcome to stay. Immigrants will always be foreigners in Japan.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#292

Post by nihonde »

mrhappyunhappy wrote: post #290
nihonde wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price is for the land, which can be quite expensive and can go up. The cost of demolition and building a new home is about USD200-300k for a very nice three bedroom home in a typical urban area. Credit is very cheap too. Also, people prefer new things in Japan. If you see a car that is more than a few years old, it will most likely be a mint-condition collectors item.

I'm in Kyushu. Seikisui houses cost 150-300k here on average. The house I personally want (saw at house demo place) is 750k. It's really nice!! In California that might buy a 3br in the outskirts of LA buy it won't be nice. The house I saw, in California would probably go for 1.5-3 mil in southern parts and much higher in SF.

$750k in Kyushu must be a mansion! Those home showcases are great aren’t they? Would you build wood or steel frame?

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#293

Post by JumpCrisscross »

skissane wrote: post #285
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how does Fortnite demonstrate “infinite growth”? Fortnite makes money by selling digital in-game goods. Their revenues could grow infinitely without their material footprint expanding one iota. What they demonstrate is not infinite growth, but the capacity for infinite growth in a finite universe. Value, at the end of the day, is subjective. Growth is a measure on this subjective value. It is not a measure on mater…

That's not infinite growth. There are only a finite number of humans on earth who could possibly play the game, and many of those either have no interest or can't afford to do so. And, of all those potential players, each of them only has finite disposable income. So there is a hard upper limit on their revenue, without growth in world population (to increase population of potential players) or growth in the world ec…

> There are only a finite number of humans on earth who could possibly play the game, and many of those either have no interest or can't afford to do so. And, of all those potential players, each of them only has finite disposable income. So there is a hard upper limit on their revenue

The proposed metric, a product of population and incomes, is unbounded (in aggregate). Population isn’t. But nominal incomes, a function of the unbounded money supply, is. Real incomes are trickier, but they--too--are unbounded. It just requires some fraction of the basket be immaterial. As long as that component grows sufficiently, the real value of the basket–which, again, is subjective–grows.

This isn't some edge-case philosophy, but a well-recognized effect of the subjective nature of value. (The physicist in me points out that the observable universe has, based on known physics, a finite computational capacity, but that objection merely illustrates the absurdity of proposing a practical upper bound on growth.)

We're used to thinking of production as making cars and ships. Those activities represent a falling share of human activity (weighted by value). To illustrate, witness the falling material intensity and energy intensity of GDP growth.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#294

Post by FooHentai »

snowwrestler wrote: post #227
iandanforth wrote: post #180

The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, contraction economics. The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that…

I disagree that there is a significant correlation between expanding population and an expanding economy. In fact there are plenty of examples of countries whose economy expanded way faster than their population, which implies that factors other than population dominate economic growth. (If population was the dominant factor in economic growth, we would see a consistent correlation between the two.) Every day we read…

How many of those economic growths situations weren't linked to local population growth, but were linked to global population growth and populations emerging from poverty?

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#295

Post by Ibethewalrus »

yourapostasy wrote: post #142
Ibethewalrus wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where?

Look at a map of US MSAs [1]: nearly anywhere outside of an MSA will be cheaper than within the MSA. Anywhere that is outside an MSA, has very poor soil, no exploitable oil and/or mineral (and most mineral and oil rights are separate from the land anyways), not by a body of water, and has no electric/water/sewage service is going to be very cheap, like $100-500 per acre cheap. Of course, the catch is that standing up…

Thanks, and something a little bit better? Have heard about Dayton OH

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#297

Post by barry-cotter »

jaredklewis wrote: post #279
swombat wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on my experience visiting Japan and talking to both expats and expat-friendly locals there, I think the issue is more cultural than political. If you live in Japan but don't look Japanese you never really feel welcomed as a Japanese. Contrast that to countries like most of the West, where at least a solid proportion of people consider it socially unacceptable to discriminate socially based on someone's looks or…

> Contrast that to countries like most of the West, where at least a solid proportion of people consider it socially unacceptable to discriminate socially based on someone's looks or origins.. Those things are also socially unacceptable in Japan. My experience is that the often discussed "micro-agressions" against foreigners happen about as often in Japan as they do in my own country (US, grew up in Texas). Of course…

Using tear gas at the border is an American thing, not a Trump thing.

https://www.businessinsider.com/border-patrol-also-used-tear...

> The use of tear gas at the border by CBP began in 2010.

> Since fiscal year 2012, CBP has employed tear gas a total of 126 times, but its use hit a 7-year high under Trump in fiscal year 2018.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#298

Post by mrhappyunhappy »

nihonde wrote: post #292
mrhappyunhappy wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in Kyushu. Seikisui houses cost 150-300k here on average. The house I personally want (saw at house demo place) is 750k. It's really nice!! In California that might buy a 3br in the outskirts of LA buy it won't be nice. The house I saw, in California would probably go for 1.5-3 mil in southern parts and much higher in SF.

$750k in Kyushu must be a mansion! Those home showcases are great aren’t they? Would you build wood or steel frame?

The 750k model I saw was steel frame modular home, soon theory you could re-arrange it if you got bored of the layout - though I suspect that comes with a hefty cost.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#299

Post by eloff »

chongli wrote: post #277
eloff wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the resource constraint then if it's not food, energy, or shelter? People want to buy more stuff? Hardly a requirement of years gone by. People want more free time? Doubtful, otherwise people would work less and buy less stuff - which we don't see. People keep getting more productive, but they just funnel that into a more expensive lifestyle rather than cutting back on work. I don't think the reasons are simpl…

The resource constraints now are time and location. It's affordable to buy houses in a lot of places, just not so many that have access to good jobs and schools. So people prioritize the latter and sacrifice their time by commuting for work. Since both parents now work, often with lengthy commutes, there isn't a whole lot of person-hours left to spend with the children. That means people have fewer of them. When the…

I think both parents (or especially the woman) working is probably the big part of it. But I don't think many people factor the cost of university degrees into their decision (whether they should is another matter)
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