Greeks Reject Bailout Terms • Hacker News Board

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#281

Post by dragandj » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:16 AM UTC

andmarios wrote: post #134

paskster wrote: post #23

I am astouned by all the comments, who say that "Greeks were getting a shitty deal" or that the bailout terms were somewhat "unfair". Facts are: Greece had a spending deficit for several decades now. This spending deficit accumulated to such a big dept, that no investors were willing to lend greece any more money. 18 european countries transferred billions of euros in the last couple of years to greece, to help the c…

The main reason billions of euros “transferred” to Greece were to save German and French banks. This way our politicians (european citizens' politicians) turned a private debt to public debt that just keeps growing because everyone on the globe thinks that it is unserviceable, thus refuses to lent us. At the same time they sold us a “bad europe” story and sold you a “bad greeks” story. Most of the facts circling arou…

Please take a short trip a bit north, to Bulgaria (EU) or Macedonia (not EU) and you'll see that soon you'll have to make ends with 100 EUR a month, or even less. I do not know how many Drachmas that'll be, though, but that's the price of thinking with your pride...

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#282

Post by peterfirefly » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:16 AM UTC

elorant wrote: post #226

OK let me say this as clear as I can after reading most of the comments. Yes we have a dysfunctional economy. We have a lot of red tape and corruption going on in the public sector. We spend a lot of money in pensions and salaries, more than any EU country. We have an inefficient to say the least tax collecting mechanism. And many other problems. But. You expect us to change all that in just five years. This is fucki…

> You expect us to change all that in just five years. This is fucking impossible guys. Please, get a grip of reality. Countries don’t just change in five years.

October 7, 1989, DDR celebrating its 40th anniversary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeePo6BGmHc

October 3, 1990, reunification of Germany: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4kpqKBbdic

Who are The People in Greece? Mad Communists or people who want freedom and prosperity and liberation from the old political class?

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#283

Post by galfarragem » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:20 AM UTC

jessaustin wrote: post #122

minot wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Concluding, I'd rather go back to the Drachma and blow the Euro project than die starving becuase it suits your country's political class. Serious question: Why do you think switching currency to Drachma will solve anything? From what I've heard and read, Greece can't spend its way out of this problem because it lacks trust among creditors.

They won't follow Capt. Germany's (self-serving) rules, so they'll be kicked off the euro boat. Right now some might imagine that life will go on as before, but the simple physics of buoyancy will mean they'll have to start swimming eventually. But... there's nothing wrong with swimming! Sure, the drachma will plummet against the euro, dollar, etc. So no one will be able to afford an iPhone. But their factories, farm…

Next month might be the best time to visit Greece and have cheap hollydays..

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#284

Post by orbifold » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:21 AM UTC

elorant wrote: post #176

paskster wrote: post #23

I am astouned by all the comments, who say that "Greeks were getting a shitty deal" or that the bailout terms were somewhat "unfair". Facts are: Greece had a spending deficit for several decades now. This spending deficit accumulated to such a big dept, that no investors were willing to lend greece any more money. 18 european countries transferred billions of euros in the last couple of years to greece, to help the c…

Wow the amount of ignorance in this comment is staggering. Many countries have deficits for decades. Greece’s debt ballooned once we entered the Eurozone. From the hundreds of billions given as loans less than 20% went to our economy. Most were used to bailout EU banks, namely French and German ones. Greece never lived up to the agreement? Then how on earth did our GDP fall by 30% in five years? How come unemployment…

I'm sorry but Greece almost certainly didn't forgive debts then out of solidarity, but because it was told to do so by the US. In case you didn't know your country was ruled by a British/US puppet government at that time.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#285

Post by dragandj » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:24 AM UTC

seingen5 wrote: post #276

paskster wrote: post #23

I am astouned by all the comments, who say that "Greeks were getting a shitty deal" or that the bailout terms were somewhat "unfair". Facts are: Greece had a spending deficit for several decades now. This spending deficit accumulated to such a big dept, that no investors were willing to lend greece any more money. 18 european countries transferred billions of euros in the last couple of years to greece, to help the c…

Let me guess... You're not into the economy thing, are you? Because even the most amateur scholar of economics is able to understand that having Greece within the eurozone has helped Germany's exports by about 80-90 billion (can't get the source now). Right now, even the UK would rather have Greece on its own currency, so that the euro will be strenghened and UK will be in a position to ease its exports. And btw, you…

I have a still better plan: why don't they take even crappier Balkan economies in the eurozone instead of Greece, and "benefit" from even lower currency value, thus boosting exports to the max?

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#286

Post by alexandros » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:26 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #280

alexandros wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I think you will concede that 2015 is not a year to use for forward projections. The country has been paying loans without external help, the uncertainty means no investment incoming, tourism is hit, and people in the country are withdrawing cash from the banks and hiding it in their houses, not spending it. As for the punitive Troika, they had 5 years to run the country and they failed in every single projectio…

Why would I concede that? 2015 Greece has begun privatization and should be feeling the impact of other reforms started in the preceding years. We're only talking about primary budgets, not debt service. Why would I think Greece in 2015 would have poorer intrinsics than in the preceding years?

It's not the intrinsics. It's the whole list of special one-off factors at play. By the way, Greece started privatization in the 90's, not in 2015.

When there's no external assistance and the government pays loans out of its budget, it means it's not paying something else internally, usually some business it owes money to. If you feel that that is a non-factor in economic destruction and therefore tax receipts, then sure, have your own numbers.

The question is how the country would fare if the debt wasn't there, but the rest of the economy was functioning properly.

As a disclosure, I am Greek and have intimate knowledge of facts of the ground. If we can't agree the past six months are not "normal" there's very little to talk about.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#287

Post by peterfirefly » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:29 AM UTC

tormeh wrote: post #54

tptacek wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the difference between "crippling austerity" and "keeping spending within their means"? Isn't the biggest financial problem in Greece the relative enormity of the public sector? Wouldn't fiscal reform basically amount to slashing entitlements and public sector employment?

A public sector can be enormous without damaging the economy. In Scandinavian countries it's about 50% and used to be higher. The problem is that the Greek government is both bad and weak. The Greek public sector's purpose is not really to provide utility to the populace, but to buy votes from the unions. It's very hard to pay for because it does not enrichen the private sector nearly as much as it should. And becaus…

I can assure you that the sizes of the public sectors in Scandinavia damage our economies!

Our private sectors are a lot freer than in Greece, though, which is why we can afford them and why Greece can't.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#288

Post by peterfirefly » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:32 AM UTC

natrius wrote: post #61

tptacek wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently the deficit is more like 3% (depending on whether you believe Greece's own stats, or the EU's. Forgiving debt by definition doesn't change the primary surplus, right? The primary surplus is the budget before taking interest payments into account. And that's the whole premise of not bailing Greece out on Greek terms, right? That bailing them out doesn't accomplish anything if they're still on a course to ra…

Years of primary surpluses are clear evidence that Greece is capable of funding its own ongoing spending. This year is an aberration due to the crisis. If the debt were forgiven, I don't think Greece would need outside funds in 2016. Greece isn't asking for forgiveness though—they're asking for restructuring. Greek fiscal policy is not unsustainable. Much of it is unwise, but still affordable.

Greece most assuredly has not had years of primary surpluses!

There has been a single quarter so far -- and that's assuming we can trust Greek accounting!

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#289

Post by univalent » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:32 AM UTC

No matter which way this went this whole referendum seemed like a political stunt. It was a huge distraction, frayed nerves and made everyone more entrenched in their negotiation positions. A good deal and compromise is generally negotiated behind closed doors without making loud speeches that you can't walk away from. I feel sorry for the Greek people. They deserve better from their own leaders.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#290

Post by MaysonL » Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 12:32 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #243

liebknecht wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that Varoufakis was referring the Troika (or rather, their actions: he used the word "terrorism", not the more loaded term "terrorist") when he said that, not to the Germans as a people (or even to German banks, or their politicians). At no point in the El Mundo article did he call the Germans "terrorists", and -- worse than hyperbolic -- it's irresponsible for you to suggest that he did.

The troika includes Germany. My impression of Germany's role in the troika ("Germany is the backbone of obduracy in the troika") could be wrong. Is it? Here's what Varoufakis said: What they’re doing with Greece has a name — terrorism [...] Why did they force us to close the banks? To instill fear in people. And spreading fear is called terrorism. My point, of course, is that these were both hyperbolic arguments.

Try substituting the term "fear-monger" for "terrorist". Reads substantially less hyperbolic…