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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#281

Post by socialcommenter »

monster_truck wrote: post #38
overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

You are vastly underestimating how much more profitable a 10% annual return on GPUs is than basically anything else you would use an LLM for. They think whatever you are doing is cute and would very much like to ensure their models can do it even better in the future, but competing? Not even worth the time to think about

Is it only a 10% annual return? That's not a lot.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#282

Post by aurareturn »

akiselev wrote: post #101
stillpointlab wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced, mostly because things like crypto, which I believe went into ASICs, were based on very slowly moving and mostly understood algorithms. LLMs and model architectures seems significantly more volatile. I wouldn't want to be working out the finer details of my chip rollout only to find a new paper/approach that give multiples of performance. So I guess it depends on how much the latest-greatest model m…

The tokens per second performance numbers coming from Cerebrus/Talas are several orders of magnitude higher than models running on GPUs, which is such a huge step change that it will enable many more uses of LLMs that are impractical otherwise. I.e. think about gamers and burning in an LLM chip on a game console like a future Play Station - it doesn't matter if its a frontier LLM if it allows them to talk to in game…

I don't think ASICs is the long term answer here at the local LLM level. I think GPUs will still be.

If you can have only one AI processor in your laptop (because they're big and expensive), it's going to be a GPU. This AI processor needs to inference LLMs, audio processing, image generation, video generation, etc. This is on top of normal graphics processing requirements such as video games, playing videos, decoding, encoding, etc.

At the enterprise level, I can see some ASICs working once the market fully matures and improvements in architectures slow down drastically while demand for inference increases drastically. How far are we from this world? Maybe 5-10 years? It seems like model architectures are still changing rapidly and labs want fast experimentation that programmable GPUs offer.

GPUs will still dominate in general - just like how CPUs still dominate despite ASICs.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#283

Post by signa11 »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

why not start with fogas ? you know … to test the waters ?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#284

Post by daadx »

margalabargala wrote: post #188
stillpointlab wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but soon models may not need to be updated Which is why my original post mentioned the volatility in models. We aren't just doing research on frontier, there is a huge amount of research on quantization, distillation, etc. that is changing the landscape at the low-end almost as much as it is changing on the frontier. And it is also why I mention revealed preference. What feels sufficient / "good enough" today is a…

That moving target is different for everyone and their use case, and for me, it's already passed. I remember using Opus 4.5 and thinking "this is good enough to do everything I want it to do properly" and I stand by that. Paying $10k for unlimited Opus 4.5 running at 9k tok/s would IMO allow me to do more, faster, than putting the same money into $200/mo anthropic subscriptions for the latest and greatest. This is me…

Unless he's talking about personal use then he's a bozo - he won't get to decide.

The managers of the firm will.

They dont care that its faster unless it translates into the financials. They want lower costs, higher revenues - explain how it fits brudda.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#285

Post by yogthos »

boc wrote: post #276
yogthos wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The process takes time because even when you're distilling answers, you still need to actually do reinforcement training on the model. And given that Fable and GPT 5.6 just came out there simply hasn't been much time to do that. On top of that, Kimi also does better than Fable or GPT on a lot of tasks, distillation alone can't explain that, meaning there is a difference in architecture. You can watch a talk from Kimi…

> US companies models constantly distill each other as Musk was forced to admit under oath > This whole narrative has just been a massive cope. So wait, US AI companies all use distillation because... it's not effective and it's all just cope? Or is distillation really powerful and they all do it, which Musk was forced to admit under oath? But when China does distillation it isn't powerful and they don't need to do i…

I'm saying it's a cope to claim that the only reason Chinese models are catching up is due to distillation, while pointing out that distillation itself is in no way unique to Chinese companies. I'm sorry this was too complex of an idea for you to follow.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#286

Post by signa11 »

mattdeboard wrote: post #205
overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

Your last two sentences remind me of the olden days of people building applications on top of FB and Twitter APIs (and later, Reddit), only to to have the rug pulled out from under them in one way or another

don’t forget m$ as well.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#287

Post by alach11 »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest

As of today, that appears to be Google!

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48986351

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#288

Post by daadx »

jrs100000 wrote: post #262
sarchertech wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone think we need a Mythos level model to plan a road trip Yes. The latest OpenAI and Anthropic models are terrible at planning roadtrips. This is something I try to use them for frequently. They constantly get things completely wrong. I’d say that about half of the stops they suggest fail to follow whatever filters I’ve asked for.

Fable is a pretty crappy general purpose LLM. It reminds me a little bit of GPT 5.2, in that it sometimes gets argumentative and deceptive after being caught in a mistake, and it tends to make a lot of them when you ask for judgement calls. Opus 4.8 is better for that sort of thing, or Opus 4.6 if it's important that it actually follow all of your instructions. And this is one of the big things that seems to be misse…

There never was a path.

It was nonsense to draw in investment and justify an inflated valuation.

lmao

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#289

Post by alach11 »

misiti3780 wrote: post #56
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

is anyone doing this ?

News just broke today that Google is planning on doing this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48986351

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#290

Post by daadx »

tracker1 wrote: post #240
sdfefcxv wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To say X is perfectly bad vs Y is false. People use these models for diff things. Its quite possible for the things they are used for, people do not see much of a difference. Do you hold stock in Anthropic?

Are you a Chinese national, or otherwise paid by China?

the lot of you sound salty lmao

are you american?

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