Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 311 posts

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#281

Post by Amezarak »

hnbad wrote: post #76
Amezarak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran had already passed the IAEA red-line of enriching uranium to 60%. They had already accomplished virtually all the hard parts of building a bomb. https://fordow.net/blog/posts/enriched-uranium-proliferation... Is a good explainer about uranium enrichment. > The most alarming aspect of 60% enrichment is how close it brings a country to weapons-grade material 4344. The enrichment work required to move from 60% to 9…

This would be a lot more concerning if it wasn't widely known that Israel also illegally holds nuclear weapons of its own and therefore should have been sanctioned by the US for decades. Not having nukes is how Iran got here in the first place - the POTUS unilaterally withdrawing from their agreement and bombing them in the middle of negotiations. For all the portrayals of the Iranian government as "lunatics" over th…

I think this is true for any country. If you are willing to take the risks that come with looking like you're building a bomb, you're obviously much better off once you have them. I personally don't think nonproliferation was ever in the long run a lasting result; it could only ever work as long as most countries are satisfied with being client states.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#282

Post by Hikikomori »

OutOfHere wrote: post #245
parrellel wrote: post #140

Reading through the proposal Iran put out, it sounds like Trump's surrendered? 1- Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon - You know Israel won't let that happen 2- America's commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. - No regime change 3- Complete removal of the naval blockade within 30 days - Iran gets its…

As an American citizen, I find it completely unacceptable that the US will pay $300B to rebuild a foreign country when it doesn't have funds for food and healthcare benefits for its deserving citizens. Moreover, for the longest time, Trump criticized Obama for giving $1.7B to Iran, and now he wants to give so much more.

How about being outraged spending even more bombing it in the first place?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#283

Post by Hikikomori »

tristanj wrote: post #214
kelnos wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did that 2025 assessment conclude that Iran was building toward a nuclear weapon, or didn't it?

The 2025 unclassified report does not assess that, but the 2024 one did. Money quote: Iran has greatly expanded its nuclear program, reduced IAEA monitoring, and undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so. Also, that 2025 unclassified report was released before the June 2025 enrichment numbers I shared; these numbers would have influenced the report, and you dodg…

Because they were under sanctions after trump left the jcpoa. They were not enriching other than for civilian use or working towards a bomb during the agreement and for years after trump left it. Sanctions never ended so might as well work on a bomb then?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#284

Post by enaaem »

frm88 wrote: post #207
petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

What they also get: lifting of international sanctions: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-france-germany-italy...

Looks like a total strategic victory for Iran. They are the regional power now that has to be taken serious by the international community. Their international standing has improved compared to before the war. This is also bad news for Israel.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#285

Post by enaaem »

kelnos wrote: post #190
petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

So basically the US is in a worse position than before the war. Expected, but still dumb and disappointing. (Par for the course for Trump.) And of course all that sweet, sweet reconstruction/redevelopment money is going to go to Trump's buddies.

It looks like Iran and Trump has made a deal to rob the American tax payer together.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#286

Post by cosmicgadget »

zahlman wrote: post #253
cosmicgadget wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

> Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong. Pardon; are you asserting there is mountains of evidence that the bears have not, in fact, claimed impending recession far more often than actual recession occurred? Or that market timers are generally successful (are you not familiar with e.g. https://longbets.org/362/ )?

Are bearish positions the only way to time the market?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#287

Post by cosmicgadget »

zahlman wrote: post #252
ergocoder wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money. Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.

It took me quite a while to figure out that the two of you are using "port" as short for "portfolio". Never heard that before. "The wealthy people" got wealthy in a whole bunch of different ways that are not investment; and having gained wealth, they invest it for many different reasons aside from maximizing log-mean expectation (or probability of sustaining a given level of cash flow, or other objective metrics that…

Isn't this exactly what I said? The "time in the market..." mantra only applies to people who are ignorant or lazy?

Does your "closed system" assertion account for selling options?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#288

Post by ergocoder »

zahlman wrote: post #252
ergocoder wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money. Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.

It took me quite a while to figure out that the two of you are using "port" as short for "portfolio". Never heard that before. "The wealthy people" got wealthy in a whole bunch of different ways that are not investment; and having gained wealth, they invest it for many different reasons aside from maximizing log-mean expectation (or probability of sustaining a given level of cash flow, or other objective metrics that…

> is barely any more "effort" than buying and holding SPY, as the work is being entirely delegated

Effort is translated to money e.g. you do it yourself or you hire someone to do it; someone is spending that large amount of effort that is valued at millions of dollars/year.

If SPY is so great, then wealthy people would've just bought SPY.

But that's not what they are doing. They pay fund managers top money (think top 0.1% earner) to invest for them.

> Many strategies are dependent on that level of wealth (or designed to address problems that only apply to that level of wealth) for tax-related reasons.

Their main goal is to grow the funds. Tax-saving is secondary at best. Nobody would be okay with shrinking the fund to acquire tax-saving lol.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#289

Post by Sabinus »

Gud wrote: post #209
riazrizvi wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After 400 years of Ottoman rule, we the Brits took that region because we won WWI. We gave some to different Arab groups, and some to the Israelis. The muslim religious head of Jerusalem wrote fan mail to Hitler advocating for the Final Solution. The hostility toward Jews had been whipped up for years and the general unwillingness of the neighboring regions to agree to the lines that the UK delegated to the UN is why…

Why the fuck does the colonial power dictate who “gets” land? The land was stolen from the local farmers and fishermen and given to Europeans.

>Why the fuck does the colonial power dictate who “gets” land?

Because the preWW2 era was a very different time, the Ottoman Empire that previously held the region lost WW1, disintegrated, and the victors were entitled to manage the breakup and created many states.

They thought it would be a good idea for the Jews to have a go at making a state, felt that they needed one to pursue self-determination considering their historical treatment, and had some very wishful ideas about how well the existing population would react or how partition would go.

The British didn't evict Arabs to move Jews in. (Tenant farmer evictions and the associated legal land purchases aside.)

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#290

Post by Sabinus »

LPisGood wrote: post #34
ergocoder wrote: post #24

It's the last bump before I liquidate all my stocks. I predict that the crash will come at the end or the beginning of the next president which is likely democrat. Not that it's democrat's fault but democrat is more disciplined

I have some thoughts on that. It’s possible that the current administration’s lack of oversight has artificially propped up the stock market. If the next president decides to return to a more traditional rules based structure, the market will probably react very poorly. US debt is also getting more expensive and interest is ballooning. Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the c…

My fear is that Trump will keep the show going until the end of his term but generally destroy the market's fundamental health and stability. Then a Dem president tries to re-rationalise the markets, they can't handle the correction, there's a crash, and with the backlash the USA is set up for a real spicy government.
Post reply on HN