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Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

wsj.com

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Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#281

Post by conradkay »

baq wrote: post #195
logicchains wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If the end goal is that only regulated US companies can use Fable, that is a pretty good outcome for Amazon It's a terrible outcome for Amazon because it destroys Anthropic's revenue. Roughly half of Anthropic's customers are foreigners, and they wouldn't use Anthropic if its next generation model was banned while other providers' next generation models aren't. And if the US follows through and bans all Mythos-level…

Immediate revenue impact is basically 0 - nobody cancels their Claude sub because Fable isn’t why they got it in the first place (by nobody I mean like 1% of total users and they’re likely net neutral tokenmaxxers for revenue). Signal to OpenAI and Google is clear: can’t release too smart models or they get controlled. It follows there is no danger to revenue since other providers are forced to plateau at the same le…

Seems like estimates are that 70-85% of their revenue comes from API usage/pricing, so some users switching from Opus to Fable for that would've had a big impact

Then there's people switching from GPT 5.5 or upgrading their subscriptions, and Fable being scheduled for removal from subscriptions on the 23rd

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#283

Post by himata4113 »

chmod775 wrote: post #226
ronsor wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$6000 of usage in three days???

Makes me think they're not using anthropic directly but rather any downstream provider. Pretty much everyone has broken caching for anthropic models, which can make requests a couple dozen times more expensive for long contexts. I did manage to blow through about 1k in a day once doing this, so I can see how one might reach 6k with broken caching + heavy workloads. For comparison: What cost me me $1k via openrouter w…

Nope, using anthropic directly. But you're right, rewriting history busts cache and it gets expensive really fast.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#284

Post by tensor »

dwa3592 wrote: post #270

I wonder if there would be an equivalent of Non proliferation treaty like Nukes? I know it sounds crazy - but if there's even 0.1% chance that some models are so good that they can be used to hack into people's bank accounts - I, as the government, would not want that model to be publicly accessible. I would also request other countries to come to the table and sign this NPT(for AI). Public will still have access to…

I'm pretty sure the days of any government signing any NPT with the US are very over. The trust is broken. I'd rather my government stockpile all the weapons of every sort at this point.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#285

Post by cmrdporcupine »

lubujackson wrote: post #14
aix1 wrote: post #2

Given Amazon's fairly large equity stake in Anthropic, I really don't get their motivation. Anyone care to speculate?

Everyone is assuming this isn't a positive outcome for Anthropic. Think about the optics: everyone was shitting on Anthropic for silently downgrading Fable. Now that is forgotten, they have a chance to spend a week or two revising their approach, then will come out with a "Gov't approved" version and life goes on. Most importantly, Anthropic has been too "uppity" and needed to be put in their place by the powers that…

Sure, and at the end, there will be one of Trump's kids or friends on the board at Anthropic, and probably with access to pre-IPO stock at a nice friendly strike price.

Surely not at all a coincidence that this all shook out right after Anthropic filed for IPO, and SpaceX IPOd with a nice giant valuation.

Given everything that happened in Iran this spring, with constant stock pump and dumps, tweets timed to market events, etc. the default analysis of everything the feds do should be: how is this enriching Trump and his buddies?

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#286

Post by [deleted] »

zmmmmm wrote: post #269

The only thing I can think of that would give Amazon reasons to dislike Mythos / Fable is that Anthropic really ruined their Bedrock story by imposing data retention requirements that cross a red line in regulatory compliance. It's just possible that Jassy would rather have nobody use Fable than doing it on the basis of, effectively, a direct data trust relationship with Anthropic. It is hard to plug it together into…

[deleted]

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#287

Post by Lerc »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #19
Lerc wrote: post #9

One of the things that I have come to trust the least in journalism is any WSJ story that says "people familiar with the matter said" Can anyone find another source for this?

Why? Are there specific examples of WSJ reporting using unnamed sources that turned out to be false/misleading that led you to this conclusion? Unnamed sources carry some risks, sure, but it's obvious that few people would be willing to put their named to leaked info like this.

"In 2019, Altman was asked to resign from Y Combinator after partners alleged he had put personal projects, including OpenAI, ahead of his duties as president, said people familiar with the matter."

A statement declared to be false by the person who made the decision, in evident increasing frustration as the falsehood purpetuated.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#288

Post by alpinisme »

Cider9986 wrote: post #99
vrganj wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not Fable 5 that overstepped in the eyes of the US government. It's Anthropic. This is transparent revenge for them daring to try and push back a little on enabling war crimes.

>This is transparent revenge for them daring to try and push back a little on enabling war crimes. Anthropic wasn't pushing back on enabling war crimes. They said they didn't want the models to work with autonomous weapons because the the models weren't good enough.

Arguably it’s a worse (or different) war crime to knowingly target people incompetently and thus kill more innocent civilians. In this respect, they showed themselves against one war crime. Not “war crimes” in general but a specific misuse of ai in war.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#289

Post by pjc50 »

dwa3592 wrote: post #270

I wonder if there would be an equivalent of Non proliferation treaty like Nukes? I know it sounds crazy - but if there's even 0.1% chance that some models are so good that they can be used to hack into people's bank accounts - I, as the government, would not want that model to be publicly accessible. I would also request other countries to come to the table and sign this NPT(for AI). Public will still have access to…

Bank accounts are currently regularly ""hacked"" by phish and other types of fraud. Current models are capable of helping with that.

Then there's monstrously stupid stuff like https://www.visa.com/en-us/solutions/intelligent-commerce , where visa place an AI inside the security boundary, pre-hacked for anyone who can prompt injection it.

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