Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#281

Post by linhns »

pjc50 wrote: post #203
an0malous wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Trump supporters, including Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Dave Smith, voted for him because of his anti-war stance during campaigning. I’m not defending their poor judgement of an infamous con artist (I didn’t vote for Trump) but we should ask ourselves how democracy can function if candidates can just make things up during campaigns and do the complete opposite when they’re elected. We should also ask ours…

> Tucker Carlson I'd just like to remind everyone that this guy got fired from Fox News for being too extreme an idealogue. > I’m not defending their poor judgement of an infamous con artist At some point you have to hold adult Republicans accountable for their actions. They were warned repeatedly; they chose to ignore the warnings. > ask how it’s possible that such unpopular wars always seem to have bipartisan suppo…

> At some point you have to hold adult Republicans accountable for their actions. They were warned repeatedly; they chose to ignore the warnings.

Well, he did win Democrat votes as well because the party put up such horrible candidates twice.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#282

Post by atmavatar »

apexalpha wrote: post #245
declan_roberts wrote: post #209

Criminal probe into this started last month. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious...

As if anything in the executive branch of the US still works properly. Isn't the FBI already raiding the homes of political opponents for intimidation? The famed US constitution with all its 'checks and balances' they would never shut up about turned out to be papier mâché and completely trampled by the first person that tried.

> The famed US constitution with all its 'checks and balances' they would never shut up about turned out to be papier mâché and completely trampled by the first person that tried.

If we're being completely honest, the checks and balances in the constitution ended within the first decade. They were only designed to work in the case that the three branches of government were truly separate and adversarial with one another.

The creation of political parties largely eliminated them, both because they cross-cut branches and because the first-past-the-post, winner-take-all electoral system virtually guaranteed the parties would have nearly even representation most of the time.

That it's greatest likelihood of collapse comes between 236 and 243 years later (depending on whether you count from the end of the revolutionary war or ratification of the constitution) is a goddamn miracle.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#283

Post by mrtesthah »

trimethylpurine wrote: post #148
mrtesthah wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not what US intelligence says. The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/06/trump-gabbard-comments-on-...

This article seems irrelevant. It cites a publication dated March of '25 that must be compiled from information preceding that by a few months. The US didn't go to war in or around that time period.

The US did in fact bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#284

Post by mschuster91 »

triceratops wrote: post #122
mschuster91 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can just insider trade, launder money, commit investment fraud, anything you want, the way you saw random people just walking into CVS drug stores years ago in SF and grabbing stuff and walking out. Something I'd disagree with is... enforcement will not help against what causes people to turn out and steal in stores. Fix widespread poverty, get people out of homelessness, help people legitimately get off of dru…

> enforcement will not help against what causes people to turn out and steal in stores Yes and no. Enforcement deters career criminals by increasing the cost of doing business. Improving society means fewer honest people have to turn to crime. > insider traders and billion-scale fraudsters - they do not have the need for survival pushing them to do crime. It is just pure unchecked greed that drives them Right, so car…

My point is, increasing enforcement will not help against petty crime, because you gotta feed yourself somehow. The people on the lowest rungs of society dealing crack cocaine or acting as the front men for fencing rings - they got nothing to lose. In fact there's more than enough reports of people letting themselves get caught at some petty crime before winter hits so they got a few months in jail where they're at least fed and have a roof over their head.

But it can and will massively help against large scale white collar crime. When you got dozens of millions of dollars in wealth, now you have the means to make more out of it (honest or not), the incentive to make more out of it - and also, a lot to lose, should they get caught.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#285

Post by tim333 »

leonidasrup wrote: post #64
Havoc wrote: post #43

The worst part is the sharp changes in the price being traded aren't achieved by magic but rather with guns & actual human suffering

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

That was referring to equities. The modern version should be short oil when there is blood in the street and the president truths.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#286

Post by jimlawruk »

adamandsteve wrote: post #239
jimlawruk wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't there a 50% chance you are betting on the "insider" side of it?

There's a The issue is that the odds aren't actually 50/50 on you buying either side of the trade; one half will look like a better deal (and given public information, it is a better deal) so you'll buy that half. Then when the market resolves, it'll turn out that insiders knew some piece of information that made the other half of the trade a better choice.

So then the person who uses public information is actually the bigger fool than someone who uses no information whatsoever and just picks a side of the bet. If insiders know that a volcano is going to erupt and offers a 50/50 payout, people who know the historical improbability will bet that is will NOT erupt, thinking it is an easy payout. But there will be some idiots out there that bet that it will erupt based on dumb luck.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#287

Post by wartywhoa23 »

blitzar wrote: post #48
noIdeaTheSecond wrote: post #5

> "The Trump administration is making no real effort to crack down on whoever is trading using inside information, and these inside traders are operating with a complete sense of impunity, assured that they can get away with it." I think this sums it up.

The inside trader made no real effort to crack down on themselves

The Ouroboros is smart enough to not get annihilated by biting its tail. Mind the gap, eh?

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#288

Post by atmavatar »

Someone1234 wrote: post #235
pjc50 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the UK, the Prime Minister or the Home Office cannot ring up any of the enforcement agencies and tell them to drop a corruption case - the law is supposed to apply to everyone. I would not rely on that. The Attorney General can withdraw prosecutions, and is a government minister (although not technically in the Cabinet). Parliament can do anything , it just usually doesn't. This includes retroactive legislation…

Yep; I think the above comment took the wrong lessons. What actually happened in the US is that "common norms and expectations" were thrown out the window, so instead of the question being "What is traditionally done?" it became "What can legally be done?" And, as it turns out, when you're only constrained by the letter of the law the executive branch is insanely powerful. UK politics, more than most younger countrie…

> And, as it turns out, when you're only constrained by the letter of the law the executive branch is insanely powerful.

It's not even constrained by the letter of the law. The current administration has done quite a few things which are blatantly illegal and unconstitutional.

Trump has done so, safe in the knowledge that the impeachment process can't work so long as the Republican party holds a majority in the House, and a conviction can't occur so long as the Republican party controls at least 41 seats in the Senate.

Furthermore, due to the presidential immunity power created out of thin air by the Supreme Court in US v. Trump, he is shielded even from investigation so long as it can be successfully argued any potential crimes were done as part of official duties.

Lastly, his advanced age virtually guarantees he'll die long before any such prosecution could clear the legal hoops required for conviction after leaving office (assuming he ever does), even in the rare circumstances a Democrat could be found with enough spine to actually move forward with one.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#289

Post by tim333 »

selectodude wrote: post #256
pphysch wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd just like to remind everyone that this guy got fired from Fox News for being too extreme an idealogue. Do you have any evidence that this was the reason?

I don’t think we need to be providing proof that the sky is blue at this point but here you go. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/oct/31/tucker-carlson...

The article says too big for his boots and part responsible for a $787m libel judgement. Also called Senior Executive Vice President for Corporate Communications a cunt. Doesn't mention idealogue.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#290

Post by MSFT_Edging »

skinfaxi wrote: post #65
MSFT_Edging wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread.”

Okay so what are you trying to say with this quote? Are you arguing that businesses don't require investment and risk?

That the idea of a level playing field is nonsense.

The wealthy can afford to continually leverage their wealth to accumulate even more wealth. This expresses in many different ways.

The wealthy man can afford the helicopter to get an edge at the global casino.

It's a structure designed to concentrate wealth and power and it won't end well for anyone involved, top or bottom.

Post reply on HN