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UAE to leave OPEC

ft.com

281–290 of 750 posts

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And for extra fun, the U.S. sometimes likes to jump into the fray.

The US is more of a bouncer on behalf of Israel than anything else, really.

-- Moshe, why are you keep reading anti-Semitic papers? -- I just like to hear how powerful and clever we are.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#282

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Isn't the solution in game theory when there are multiple turns to just repeat the move the previous person made. So if the other side overpumped by x1 amount then you pump an extra x1 the next turn / year (maybe multiplied some reference production factor as they don't all have the same absolute limits).

Then they all pump more every year

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#283
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bullshit. There are many competing auto manufacturers. No one is compelled to buy larger, more expensive vehicles. There are smaller, cheap vehicles available to those who want them. If I want a little penalty box like a Hyundai Elantra or Nissan Sentra the local dealers have base models in stock and ready to sell today. Larger vehicles are more comfortable, safe, and practical (for anyone who doesn't need to worry a…

Pedestrian deaths, including children, have risen in lockstep with light truck adoption in the United States, while they have fallen in countries without this phenomenon.

It isn't about weight, it's way stupider than that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpuX-5E7xoU

Tall grilles are a purely aesthetic choice. We could create safety standards for pedestrian impacts and end this inane trend. And still drive trucks!

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#284
post #221

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

There are economic mechanisms for this (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_Carbon_Border_Adjustment_Me...) but broadly, yes, it is difficult.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

If gasoline is more expensive, customers will demand more efficient vehicles. We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. I'm old enough to remember when Japanese small cars practically took over the market in the 70s and 80s due to gas price shocks. It can happen again.

Tell that to the literal constant flow of old men I see driving pristine F150s in the metropolitan center of the Canadian city I live in.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#286
post #59
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.

Best of luck! These proxy wars have existed since the days of Assyria. 3000 years and running. Kind of depressing thought actually.

Lots of things have existed throughout history, yet we have overcome them in the last few hundred years. There is peace in Europe (west of Russia) which had as ancient conflict as Yemen; there is democracy, freedom, women have equal rights in much of the world, starvation and many diseases are mostly overcome, warfare is very rare and not an omnipresent threat, ...

Thank goodness our predecessors didn't think this way. They thought that through reason, hard word, and humanism they could overcome these things, and they did. No doubt there were plenty of naysayers.

What will we do with our turn?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#287

Can somebody knowledgeable help me understand why this is in the interests of the UAE? Also, seems like a moot point since the strait is closed. Why do they think it’s in their best interests, and why now?

1) The UAE has its "Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline" (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p... ) to Fujairah export terminal on the "Gulf of Oman" bypassing the choke-point of "Strait of Hormuz" entirely. Given the current blockade of the strait and its uncertain future, Fujairah is now central to crude oil shipments for the World Market. 2) Thus far, the UAE has been prevented from maximizing…

1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than hald of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly.

2) They can gain by increasing their production, IF they can get that out through Hozmuz. And IF (after Hormuz is opened) other OPEC+ countries DO NOT decide to do the same and the price of oil collapses.

3) US did not meaningfully came to their help. The high-end air defense systems were reserved/moved to Isreal. They mostly defended themselves, with the stuff they bought over the years from the US. A slightly cynical take would be 'classic protection racket'.

4) The national interests of other OPEC members are best served by being united against greater forces from outside region, not by fracturing and bickering among themselves. This is classical divide and conquer.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is very reductive of the whole situation. The Egyptians are not singularly focused on helping Palestinians; it is far more nuanced than that. Bottom line, Egyptians are not interested in supporting millions of refugees inside their border. So the border stays closed to mass immigration.

All that may be true. Also true: If Egypt opened the border and Israel objected, Israel would take swift military action.

No, why? Israel would celebrate.

But NONE of the Arab countries want to help Gaza people really.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#289
post #221

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

Isn’t solar already cheaper?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#290
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

Agreed - the good news is, in many circumstances renewable energy is cheaper for new energy capacity. As long as regulations move in the right direction, we are likely to see the global energy mix move towards renewable sources over time

it doesn't have to be cheaper to be a problem, as long as somebody still makes money on it and corruption still exists.

And corruption is one of those annoying problems that dont go away easy

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