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Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

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281–290 of 402 posts

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#281
post #230
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iMessage is AFAIK only really a big thing in the US.

Canada too. I only have WhatsApp installed for when I leave the country.

It depends on your social circle obviously. I had a single person I used iMessage with no but we since switched to SMS. Not many people where I live have iphones.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're quick to say "to me" in your comparison. My experience is very different than yours. Codex and CC yield very differenty result both because of the harness differencess and the model differences, but niether is noticeably better than the other. Personally, I like Codex better just because I don't have to mess with any sort of planning mode. If I imply that it shouldn't change code yet, it doesn't. CC is too imp…

I have the opposite experience. Codex gets to work much faster than Claude Code. Also I've never seen the need to use planning mode for Claude. If it thinks it needs a plan it will make one automatically.

I'll drink to the idea that it's all in my head.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#283
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers don't necessarily want iPhone. They don't want to be excluded from iMessage, which is a completely different motivation.

Yeah, that just doesn't pass the simplest sniff tests. I barely use iMessage, and yet I'm an iPhone user. Basically everyone around me is the same.

In the US it's mostly iMessage, and that includes people who say it's not mostly iMessage.

iPhones are more expensive, on average, for a similar or worse experience. The thing that drives iphone sales is social. People want iPhones because their friends do, and that's a very good reason.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#284

Gemma4 in my view is good enough to do things similar to Gemini 2.5 flash, meaning if I point it code and ask for help and there is a problem with the code it’ll answer correctly in terms of suggestions but it’s not great at using all tools or one shooting things that require a lot of context or “expert knowledge” If a couple more iterations of this, say gemma6 is as good as current opus and runs completely locally o…

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Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#285

Gemma4 in my view is good enough to do things similar to Gemini 2.5 flash, meaning if I point it code and ask for help and there is a problem with the code it’ll answer correctly in terms of suggestions but it’s not great at using all tools or one shooting things that require a lot of context or “expert knowledge” If a couple more iterations of this, say gemma6 is as good as current opus and runs completely locally o…

The economy is, more or less, a competition. If someone gets a really great axe and are happy with it, that’s great for them. But then, other people will be on bulldozers. They can say they are happy with the axe, but then they are not in the competition at that point.

I think the article was wondering how many billion dollar bulldozers the world needs. My local hardware store sells a variety of axes. I myself am a happy ax user. I even replace them.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#286
post #108

What I don't get about Apple is when everyone else was giving up on yet another VR attempt, moving into AI, they decide AI isn't worth it, and it was the right time for a me too VR headset. So no VR, given the price and lack of developer support, and late arrival into AI.

I think of it like a technology checkpoint. Make sure you got as far as everyone else when they gave up, so when the next innovation in that space comes along you can start back up on even footing.

You want to have your own pathway to production that dodges competitors’ patents, is somewhat defensible itself, maybe a brand, etc.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#287
People can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the core logic behind OpenAI's valuation was essentially that AI would work like search. Google had the best search engine, it became a centre of gravity that sucked everything in and suddenly network effects meant it was the centre of the universe. There seem to be 2 big problems with that though. The first is that for search, queries are both demand for the product and a way of making the product better. The second, is that Google was genuinely the best product for a very long time.

Maybe point (1) was unclear at some point, but I think it's mostly clear today that's not happening. Training the model is modestly distinct from inference.

Point (2) is really funny - because sure, at some point OpenAI was the best, and then Sam Altman blew the place up and spawned a whole host of competitors who could replicate and eventually surpass OpenAI's state of the art.

It now looks like AI is a death march. You must spend billions of dollars to have the best model or you won't be able to sell inference. But even if you do, a whole host of better funded competitors are going to beat you within months so your inference charges better pay off extremely quickly. When the gap between models starts to drop, distribution becomes king and OpenAI can't compete in that field either.

Google can do that. Meta can do that. MSFT probably can do that. Amazon can do that. OpenAI cannot. They do not have the cash to do it.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#288
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How amazing is that Apple car

Depending on price I would or would not buy an Apple car; but I am quite interested in options for a car that (1) is electric; (2) doesn't spy on me and sell my data; (3) doesn't take video of me and my passengers and do weird things with it; and (4) doesn't support Republicans / white supremacists / Elon Musk. And I imagine that like-minded consumers are a pretty large market.

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Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#289
post #2

This is the classic apple approach - wait to understand what the thing is capable of doing (aka let others make sunk investments), envision a solution that is way better than the competition and then architect a path to building a leapfrog product that builds a large lead.

Apple waited on smartphones?

I thought the original iPhone was basically first.

Do you count blackberry and palm pilot as Apple waiting to see?

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One stick does. How about all the sticks needed for all the people who want to run the software?

Still cheaper, since it amortizes over all the software.

Some software has millions or even billions of users. The cost of 16 GB multiplied by million millions or billions would pay for a lot of refactoring.

That said, I think it’s more of a collective action problem. The person who could pay for the refactor to operate in 640 K is not the same person who has to pay for the 16 GB. And yes, the 16 GB is cheap enough in comparison to other costs that the latter group doesn’t necessarily notice that they are subsidizing inefficient development.

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