Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 1001 posts

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#281

Post by testing22321 »

Rotdhizon wrote: post #195
chatmasta wrote: post #126

Better article with text: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-w... > Israel will also agree to the two-week ceasefire, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official, adding that the ceasefire would enter effect as soon as the blockade of the strait of Hormuz ceased There’s the catch.

The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view i…

If we have to choose, it seems the world would be better off without Israel committing genocide

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#282

Post by acjohnson55 »

Ancapistani wrote: post #246
mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It depends. If it later comes out that their nuclear material was secured by the US, this is much more acceptable - it would seriously incentivize pipeline construction by making passage through the Strait more expensive. Given that closing it is really the only lever Iran has that can put pressure on the US at all , this attenuates that a great deal. It’s not acceptable on its face, but there’s a lot going on in thi…

A pipeline will circumvent Iranian tolls, but would be vulnerable to Iranian strikes in a war.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#283

Post by Unicironic »

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#284

Post by icegreentea2 »

mgfist wrote: post #202
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

No one has agreed to the Iran's 10 point plan, and they're not going to get all of it.

The provisional ceasefire actually goes against the Iranian proposition. Point 2 explicitly is "permanent end to the war, not a ceasefire".

Iran backed down a bit here from their maximalist aims (which is what the 10 point is).

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#285

Post by computerex »

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out.

Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#286

Post by ourmandave »

actionfromafar wrote: post #244
smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Well it's all settled then! Guess the show's over. Everything will be fine from now on. What else can be done to avoid the Epstein files?

We threatened to invade Cuba unless they "make a deal", whatever that means.

Probably be the next Venezuela, except they help us against drug dealers, so I'm not sure what lies will be told to justify this one.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#287

Post by spuz »

mgfist wrote: post #202
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Nothing has been agreed yet except a 2 week ceasefire.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#288

Post by sosomoxie »

Ancapistani wrote: post #246
mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It depends. If it later comes out that their nuclear material was secured by the US, this is much more acceptable - it would seriously incentivize pipeline construction by making passage through the Strait more expensive. Given that closing it is really the only lever Iran has that can put pressure on the US at all , this attenuates that a great deal. It’s not acceptable on its face, but there’s a lot going on in thi…

The US did not secure nuclear material. No one has even made that claim and it was logistically impossible.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#290

Post by georgemcbay »

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

I don't think its a victory for either Iran or the US.

Iran suffered a lot of losses in terms of people and widescale destruction of infrastructure.

But the US lost too, we come out of this war looking much weaker and more chaotic than we did going in, not to mention the amount of money we poured into it while accomplishing nothing (nothing we destroyed in Iran was a threat to us until we bombed them in the first place).

Post reply on HN