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BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

electrek.co

281–290 of 308 posts

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#281
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it though? Dollar is appreciating in times of turmoil? And what’s the alternative - the all talk Europeans?

Presumably China given OPs comments. It’s going to be a multi-polar world. The US will continue to be among the top powers for decades to come. We’re simply exiting an unusual period where China isn’t leading/among the leading pack of countries. The rate of US relative decline will be set by our policy decisions and cohesion. As we are apparently electing malicious narcissists with dementia to our highest office, a m…

> As we are apparently electing malicious narcissists with dementia to our highest office, a more precipitous decline seems reasonable

To be fair, the current political dysfunction can probably largely be reduced by switching the electoral system from 'first past the post' + electoral college to something like ranked choice or proportional representation.

> In political science, Duverger's law holds that in political systems with single-member districts and the first-past-the-post voting system, as in, for example, the United States and United Kingdom, only two powerful political parties tend to control power.

> By contrast, in countries with proportional representation or two-round elections, such as France, Sweden, New Zealand or Spain, there is no two-party duopoly on power. There are usually more than two significant political parties.

and that way the presidential election does reflect "either the will of the Democratic Party elite or the will of the Republican Party elite" (ie, the extremes of the two main parties), but something closer to the will of the people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably China given OPs comments. It’s going to be a multi-polar world. The US will continue to be among the top powers for decades to come. We’re simply exiting an unusual period where China isn’t leading/among the leading pack of countries. The rate of US relative decline will be set by our policy decisions and cohesion. As we are apparently electing malicious narcissists with dementia to our highest office, a m…

I think what you will see is what happens in the body when it becomes starved - it will start eating itself. We have already begun to see this. The middle class is no longer expanding, nor is the poor (by meaningful terms). Worse, the poorest class - largely made up from immigrants - legal or otherwise - are being driven away. Life in the US has been relatively comfortable for a few generations now. So current health…

> we may see change come from the southerners with guns who eventually decided they had been deceived by the people they voted for.

er... last time southerners with guns revolted, it didn't exactly end well... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

War with Iran was inevitable - either US/Israel starts it or Iran starts it - when they get the upper hand. And that war was bound to disrupt oil supply. Don't forget their goal is death to America and Death to Israel. That's what they've been arming themselves for for decades. That's what they're trying to build nuclear bombs for. They had to be stopped eventually and that was always going to be uncomfortable for wh…

Iran has been “two weeks away” from a nuclear capability for nearly 40 years, and the status quo was the best possible outcome for the US. The US getting dragged into Israel’s war does not serve anyone’s interests other than Israel’s.

Preventing another country getting nuclear weapons is a very good thing. That's Trump's stated aim for this war. How can all these people replying not see the value in? Two weeks away could turn into "never" if he succeeds. I don't understand this belief that if we just leave the festering wound that is Iran's Islamic Republic alone, it'll never get any worse.

Do you also think that global nuclear disarmament would be a bad thing because the Doomsday clock has been a few minutes from midnight for 40 years so the risk is obviously overblown and nuclear war will never happen?

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

War with Iran was inevitable - either US/Israel starts it or Iran starts it - when they get the upper hand. And that war was bound to disrupt oil supply. Don't forget their goal is death to America and Death to Israel. That's what they've been arming themselves for for decades. That's what they're trying to build nuclear bombs for. They had to be stopped eventually and that was always going to be uncomfortable for wh…

I assume this is an infuriatingly subtle parody, because: > Why can't you just celebrate this good thing? reads like /s .

You seem to be unaware that the whole world doesn't share your bubble's political opinions.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar and batteries have been and will continue... Yes, your statement is still false. Opposite is true.

I don’t think this is correct. You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant. So you’re arguing that initial capex (which everyone acknowledges is higher than natural gas) is somewhat higher than existing analyses think it is. The lifetime of solar panels is also higher than most…

> You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant.

No, the industry knows this. Talk to any investor or developer. See the capacity market blowout in PJM because they don't have enough firm power supply to offset the flood of renewables (sans storage). Or just look at the announcements for natural gas turbine demand by datacenters, which need 24/7 power. The overbuild for renewables and storage is insane to hit the same reliability and safety margins.

> So you’re arguing that initial capex (which everyone acknowledges is higher than natural gas) is somewhat higher than existing analyses think it is

It's not just CAPEX. It's also OPEX. LCOE is a normalized ($/MWh) metric that allows for comparison. See Lazard [0] or NREL's analysis [1] on LCOE costs. Note how expensive solar plus storage becomes on an LCOE basis and realistically, you might need way more than 4h batteries to hit reliability targets.

[0] https://www.lazard.com/media/5tlbhyla/lazards-lcoeplus-june-...

[1] https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/index

> because both solar and batteries are frequently found to last well beyond their factory-rated lifetimes.

BTW, this is like saying you can still use laptops past their 5 year warranty. Yes, but that's not how depreciation, financing, and service levels work. These assets are getting pushed to their limits and not everyone's buying tier 1 suppliers.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran has been “two weeks away” from a nuclear capability for nearly 40 years, and the status quo was the best possible outcome for the US. The US getting dragged into Israel’s war does not serve anyone’s interests other than Israel’s.

Preventing another country getting nuclear weapons is a very good thing. That's Trump's stated aim for this war. How can all these people replying not see the value in? Two weeks away could turn into "never" if he succeeds. I don't understand this belief that if we just leave the festering wound that is Iran's Islamic Republic alone, it'll never get any worse. Do you also think that global nuclear disarmament would b…

The Iran problem is one that the UK and US jointly created, and that there is no uncreating. The status quo was really the best possible outcome.

I think world peace with everybody holding hands and dancing would be a good thing, but it’s about as likely to happen as global nuclear disarmament.

Ukraine is an excellent contemporary case study of what happens to a nuclear-armed nation with dangerous neighbours that gives up its nukes.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did a cost per 1000 miles comparison of Camry hybrid vs Tesla model y back in 2023 when i was shopping for a new car. I just pulled up that spreadsheet and updated my area gas prices($5.50 per gallon) and my area off-peak energy costs ($0.50 per kwh). Both cost $133 to drive 1000 miles(including ammortized oil changes for camry). Camry was $15000 cheaper AND has a 500 mile range. Even at todays war-time gas prices,…

Where is electricity .5 per kwh. That's crazy high. At that cost solar must pay off very quickly.

PG&E in Northern California. Same for Edison in Southern California.

The thing about my area (Peninsula, 20 minutes south of SF) is that its not hot enough to really justify A/C, my electrical+gas bill averages out below $200 a month and my roof is old enough where it would need to be replaced before solar is installed. So a $15-$20000 expense cost for solar would actually be closer to $30-$40,000 with roof replacement, plus potentially bringing ancient wiring in my home to code will cost another handfull of thousands.

Its akin to trying to fix a slow memory leak in your application and realizing you need to also upgrade a bunch of dependencies which no longer support the current version of your tools AND refactor the frontend.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is correct. You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant. So you’re arguing that initial capex (which everyone acknowledges is higher than natural gas) is somewhat higher than existing analyses think it is. The lifetime of solar panels is also higher than most…

> You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant. No, the industry knows this. Talk to any investor or developer. See the capacity market blowout in PJM because they don't have enough firm power supply to offset the flood of renewables (sans storage). Or just look at the announcem…

That little (sans storage) is some load-bearing sleight of hand. Yes, solar is intermittent, and needs to be paired with storage.

You’re saying the overbuild is “insane”. Do you have an actual cite for this? I’m assuming there’s some percent over capacity you need to build that would allow people to reason about this.

I’m still not seeing an answer here re: the cost of natural gas, it seems like that has a huge impact on all of these assumptions.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant. No, the industry knows this. Talk to any investor or developer. See the capacity market blowout in PJM because they don't have enough firm power supply to offset the flood of renewables (sans storage). Or just look at the announcem…

That little (sans storage) is some load-bearing sleight of hand. Yes, solar is intermittent, and needs to be paired with storage. You’re saying the overbuild is “insane”. Do you have an actual cite for this? I’m assuming there’s some percent over capacity you need to build that would allow people to reason about this. I’m still not seeing an answer here re: the cost of natural gas, it seems like that has a huge impac…

I can't take your comments seriously, though, I don't think you're trying act in bad faith.

> You’re saying the overbuild is “insane”. Do you have an actual cite for this? I’m assuming there’s some percent over capacity you need to build that would allow people to reason about this.

If you have zero intuition about storage overbuild or underbuild to firm up intermittent capacity or why PJM has an undersupply of storage, then on what basis are you calling my comments on storage "sleight of hand"? My assumption, though, and seriously not trying to be mean, but based on your bio and paradoxical comments, you don't really know how to defend your argument or read these primary sources you requested.

> I’m still not seeing an answer here re: the cost of natural gas, it seems like that has a huge impact on all of these assumptions.

Taking one step at a time, you still haven't acknowledged you were incorrect about LCOE comparisons to date. These are provided in the sources that you asked for.

As for the future, you can run sensitivities. My primary sources included price shock sensitivities. You probably overlooked or can't process them as it appears.

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