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US Job Market Visualizer

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Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#281

Post by vannevar »

UncleMeat wrote: post #143
jvanderbot wrote: post #107

My takeaway here: 3.XT $ of US salaries are the TAM for AI companies. Apple, a very successful company, makes 300B/y revenue? (ish) ~10% is all you need to be Apple. And, it can work by taking all of 10% of the jobs and collecting the whole salary (the AI employee -- dubious proposition), or by taking 10% of everyone's salary and automating part of everyone's job (the AI "tool" -- much more plausible). If "part" bein…

The bosses already hate their workers and are mad that they have to pay them a cent. Would they really accept paying another 10% on their wages to make their workers 10% more productive? When there is significant active competition between the providers of core models and huge pressure to reduce prices?

In the US, since the 1970s virtually all technologically-driven productivity gains have been captured by the top 10% (who own 90% of all public equity). (See, e.g., https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ .)

So no, little or none of the AI productivity gains will go to workers, barring significant changes in public policy like universal basic income and the massive tax increases necessary to implement it.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#282

Post by shagie »

dfadsadsf wrote: post #274
ravenstine wrote: post #250

Wow, I had no idea the reason my peers and I can't find another position in less than 12 months is because the market for software developers is growing faster than average!

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

That makes the assumption that every H1B, L1, and OPT is going into software development.

https://apnews.com/article/teacher-jobs-h1b-j1-visa-online-s...

    Like many school systems facing teacher shortages, South Carolina’s Allendale County has looked overseas for help. A quarter of the teachers in the rural, high-poverty district come from other countries.

    The superintendent praises the international educators — mostly from Jamaica and the Philippines — for their skill and dedication, but she is preparing to lose some of them as the Trump administration reshapes visa programs.

    Facing higher visa sponsorship costs and uncertain immigration policies, Superintendent Vallerie Cave said it feels too risky to extend some international teachers whose contracts are up or bring on others.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#283

Post by doomslayer999 »

dfadsadsf wrote: post #274
ravenstine wrote: post #250

Wow, I had no idea the reason my peers and I can't find another position in less than 12 months is because the market for software developers is growing faster than average!

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

[flagged]

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#284

Post by pc86 »

matthest wrote: post #264
lm28469 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you understand what the 1% is, it's not your neighbour who has a nice house, a swimming pool and a ferrari... https://images.seattletimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/9... https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020... https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CvQar/full.png https://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1415721490539/Wealth_line-chart...

Definitionally the 1% is people making ~$800k+ a year. Upper-middle class is people making ~$200k/year. A lot of people have moved from middle class to upper middle class over the last decade. Both those categories are outside the 1%.

A good indicator that someone is simply being dogmatic and not arguing in good faith (e.g. actually trying to understand someone's POV, and being open to being proven wrong in their assumptions) is when it takes them 5-20 minutes to reply until a particularly good point is made and then they disappear into the ether.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#285

Post by doomslayer999 »

shagie wrote: post #282
dfadsadsf wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

That makes the assumption that every H1B, L1, and OPT is going into software development. https://apnews.com/article/teacher-jobs-h1b-j1-visa-online-s... Like many school systems facing teacher shortages, South Carolina’s Allendale County has looked overseas for help. A quarter of the teachers in the rural, high-poverty district come from other countries. The superintendent praises the international educators — mostl…

[flagged]

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#286

Post by Dig1t »

bequanna wrote: post #279
dfadsadsf wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

Are new H1Bs a thing anymore? Since the fee went up to $100k, I’m not aware of any companies still sponsoring hires who need a new H1B

We have hit the cap for H1B's every year and we will always do so until we get rid of the program. Cheap labor will always be in demand.

A 100k one-time fee is nothing for big employers. That's 25k/year for 4 years, and if you realize that H1B's can't easily leave their job it's obviously worth it.

Compare hiring an H1B that is stuck at their job, to an American who can leave at any time. You can pay the H1B a lower wage to compensate for the fee you paid to get them into the role. 25k/year for 4 years is worth it for not only the reduced churn that comes with training a new person, but also you don't have to pay any of the incentives that come with getting a new employee into the role like sign-on bonuses, wage bumps, benefits etc.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#288

Post by buzer »

bequanna wrote: post #279
dfadsadsf wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

Are new H1Bs a thing anymore? Since the fee went up to $100k, I’m not aware of any companies still sponsoring hires who need a new H1B

As far as I understand the $100k fee applies only to consulate issued H1Bs. L1 -> H1B path (via AOS) is possible without fee. (Recent) US university graduates can also use similar path from what I understand.

We will see how much the $100k fee affects things during this H1B lottery round in few weeks.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#289

Post by knuppar »

dfadsadsf wrote: post #274
ravenstine wrote: post #250

Wow, I had no idea the reason my peers and I can't find another position in less than 12 months is because the market for software developers is growing faster than average!

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

you're not factoring in a few specific things:

1) how many of these people leave the country in this analysis.

2) OPTs likely will get h1b/l1s/leave the country and are being counted distinctly.

3) not all h1b/l1/OPTs are for tech. majority for sure, but there's a conversation factor.

specially in the current situation that green cards are much harder to obtain and many OPTs don't find a job, I expect 1 to be much larger than in the past.

as a more general observation, this line of reasoning does fit lump of labor fallacies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

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