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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#281

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

asdff wrote: post #271
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, so hearsay from Epstein. Which could easily be reliable. And could also not be. Also unclear precisely what "dirty" means. So sure, it adds to the pile, but we're not there yet, IMO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct...

Notice how this information is a publically accessible web server?

This is quite unusual definition of "kompromat".

Look, when it comes to Trump, at this point, there likely is no "kompromat" that would affect him. He could have raped and murdered a 5 year old at the behest of Russian intelligence services, and his MAGA base would defend it as somehow part of God's grand plan for the republic. What is there that could be revealed about him at this point that would actually change anything?

The man was found guilty of sexual assault, recorded boasting about sexually assaulting women, found guilty of real estate fraud .. and re-elected. Maybe you can imagine some sort of of "kompromat" that would actually impact him in a way that diminished his power, but I cannot.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#282

Post by Hikikomori »

WarmWash wrote: post #56
Hikikomori wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The laser source, not the rest of the machine.

The US used this agreement to bar ASML from selling the machines to China in 2018. The machine is a clump of metal without the light source.

Its also useless without the rest of the machine, which is likely the absolutely most complex thing we can build, except maybe things like the stellarator.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#283

Post by selimthegrim »

georgemcbay wrote: post #34
echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

> America [...] needs to make friends with all of its former allies. And it needs to import PhD students. America, in the form of the Trump administration and a Trump-subservient Congress, just spent the last year completely destroying trust on these issues and it would take decades of sustained effort to rebuild it.

>>Edit 3: What I'm saying is that these tailwinds might put America back into the position it was in post-WWII. Manufacturing, tech, and science powerhouse in all the places that matter. Peers a generation or two behind. That's literally where America was after the war, and it looks like we could be teeing up for a repeat if it all doesn't unravel first.

Let us know when Trump is finished sacking the ivory towers these imported PhD students are supposed to land at.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#284

Post by righthand »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #279
righthand wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are building bunkers and tax avoidance as protest is becoming popular again. I think all people want is to secede.

These are niche behaviors. Most Americans live where they live, plan to remain there (with the possible exception of what is left of the trans community in nominally red states, and some women in similar states). If and when the shit truly hits the fan (to the extent that it has not already done so), most Americans will be right where they are now, without bunkers and having filed their taxes.

I’m not talking about how most people are operating. I’m talking about the current thought movements going on and what people are doing because of the times. These are each niche things that are becoming popularized ideas. The divide you’re talking about Red vs Blue is not where strong bonds lie. We can see that from the extreme flip-flopping on Trump by various demographics and the similarities between Maga and Democratic party being built through small disparate demographics. It might take another 5 or 10 years but people will probably largely stop paying federal taxes and put the money into savings or something elsewhere.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#285

Post by roysting »

bmitch3020 wrote: post #257

It's sad how counter productive the unreliable economic data is. The people buying groceries know that things are more expensive. And the people looking for a job know how hard it is to find work. But this administration wants to say everything is fine, and fires those that say otherwise. So now unemployment seems under control even though it's not great. Now the Fed, with their dual mandate to maintain a healthy lab…

Unfortunately America has pretended everything was fine for at the very least 130 years now, arguably longer, and we have allowed an extremely predatory, toxic, parasitic, fraudulent, thieving and lying set of people plunder not only the money through "money printing" but also plunder the very government through various types and forms of judicial and legislative authoritarian fraud, which was then installed in people's minds through education as the acceptable norm even though there was nothing "democratic" of free, let alone Constitutional about it.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#286

Post by krackers »

jazzyjackson wrote: post #267
thechao wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Damn! I just nuked a long conversation with ChatGPT outlining my pet theory that with changes in scale of energy regimes (labor->wind/water->coal->oil->solar) we get an excess energetic capacity that means our entertainment systems can't handle! That excess spills out as elite political retrenchment, entertainment jealousy, and (finally) violence, expanded civil rights, and a new entertainment regime. Mostly tongue i…

Try not to talk with LLMs too long, you’ll start talking like them faster than they adapt to you.

We often talk about "aligning models" or training them, little attention is paid to how models align/train _us_ as we interact with them. The reward functions they're trained under get "backpropagated" into our own brain, the language they use becomes familiar like a worn glove, and we learn not to step on any of their guardrails.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#287

Post by roxolotl »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #189
empath75 wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn’t an option in the USSR, either.

The "peripheral" countries mentioned in the GP were nations or at the very least distinct semi-national entities before the USSR. States in the USA have no effective history before being a part of the USA.

I do not think it will happen but this is why in discussions about this happening, or historical fiction, typically the places that break off are the ones that were distinct _before_ they joined the US. Any of the 13 colonies, New England as a block having the strongest colonial identity that I'm aware of, Texas, or California generally are where it's assumed to start as those were countries/had identities very much outside of the US while also having economies that might be ok.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#288

Post by dh2022 »

michaelchisari wrote: post #122
specproc wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

The collapse of the Soviet Union was ahistorical in many ways. It's rare that collapse of an empire can be pinpointed to a single day. And what you saw was a result of shock therapy imposed from the outside. I doubt that would happen to the US. It's unlikely collapse will be felt as a singular, apocalyptic event. More like a slow, steady loss of influence and excess wealth. Countries on the periphery stop considering…

I beg to differ. The collapse of USSR was 100% caused by internal causes.

First was the abominable low productivity in oil/gas and agricultural sectors from 1950s through 1980s.

Then came the corruption of Brezhnev era. Andropov tried to get some reforms going: first against corruption and then some Chinese-style economic changes. But Andropov died very quickly.

Eventually came Gorbachev- who had good intentions. Unfortunately he prioritized political reforms over economic. He wanted economic reforms with no pain, something to show his people some progress. Unfortunately that was impossible so he ended up with some half baked ideas (like limit alcohol sales. Or letting factory managers keep their profits expecting the managers to invest profits in new technology- managers used the profits to pay themselves. Or introduce free markets pricing between factories-when managers complained they had to pay market prices on inputs and nobody were buying their outputs the result was to subsidize factories for both inputs and outputs)

The result of these Econ reforms was that the Soviet state was running out of money. (A humanitarian policy was that for the first time in Russia’s history bad agricultural results did not result in famine-for the first time the govt bought food on the international market paying in Western currencies)

Add a few ambitious politicians who did not want to take orders from the center (Yeltsin being the principal example, but also Kravchuk) and the process of dissolution already started by the Baltic independence could only end with total collapse.

The shock therapy you mention was designed, advocated, and ultimately implemented by Gaidar - a Soviet economist fully trained by the Soviet state.

Sorry for the long reply. If you are interested in this topic I recommend reading two books, both called “Collapse” one written by Gaidar, the other one written by Zubok.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#289

Post by I-M-S »

jgilias wrote: post #197
specproc wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

The situations are not comparable at all. That was the collapse of an authoritarian (wasn’t totalitarian anymore by the time it’d collapse) system running (badly) on command economy. Most of the points you mention are therefore just really off. Say, the Baltics flipping. Where the hell are we supposed to flip to? Russia? Where ethnic minorities are sent to die in expansionist wars in disproportionate numbers?

I believe OP was referring to Baltics flipping from USSR to the West (the EU). Some US analogues might include Canada flipping (already happening), no more coups in South American countries that vote in a "wrong" government, or the Middle Eastern countries allying with China (no longer impossible).

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#290

Post by verteu »

salawat wrote: post #145
jeffbee wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens. Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone…

> if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism

It comes from the Census bureau, a letter like this: https://old.reddit.com/r/frederickmd/comments/1p1j1my/did_an...

https://www.google.com/search?udm=2&q=%22current+population+...

They only reach ~100k unique households per year, so you'd need to survey a few hundred people to find a respondent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_Population_Survey#Meth...

> Note, I'm in a massive sceptical shit phase at the moment

How might one distinguish such "scepticism" from ignorance?

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