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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#281

Post by drowsspa »

JPKab wrote: post #264
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

"Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them." Then please explain why birth rates throughout human history, when life was vastly more difficult and dangerous than it is now, were so much higher? Nobody had to meet this bar you set before. Let's just be honest here. There were three recent developments, all of which were, by themselves, good things…

Funny how you don't realize you fit perfectly into the description of one of the groups that know exactly what is going on.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#282

Post by bombcar »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #161
mikert89 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i know almost zero men that dont want a girlfriend, many are trying

My only advice to you is: clean up your grooming, spend some time getting in shape, treat women as equals, and stop feeling sorry for yourself. It also doesn't hurt to have a sense of humor. Guys who are funny will always have girlfriends. Even when I was poor as dirt I always had girlfriends.

Get a job, make your bed, clean yourself, read, walk, and talk to everyone.

If you think you can't do any of those things, figure out how. If you're scared to try, start by talking to old people - and really listen.

Stop thinking about yourself, think about others, and don't get fixated on "one girl" or otherwise drive yourself insane.

If you've done all of the above for a few years, then you may be in a position to complain - and change something drastic about your life (move, change jobs, travel, etc).

But the root of it all is treat everyone as a person worthy of respect, not just "hot girls" as trophies to be won. It ain't no video game.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#283

Post by biophysboy »

margalabargala wrote: post #271
biophysboy wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you make of the birth rates being much higher and stable among married couples, and of the birth rates among women in their 30s increasing? These don't really correspond to your take.

I think that perfectly aligns with their take. People in their 30s, married, tend to have more stable lives. They are in a position where they feel they are able to give that child a good life.

That actually makes sense. I think I broadly agree with this. Maybe we can do 100 different little things to help people feel like they are "set up".

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#284

Post by tfehring »

ashishb wrote: post #123
phainopepla2 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some of the myths they bust in that article? For those of us who can't see past the paywall

One really common that myth this article busts is about child care. "Child care is virtually free in Vienna and extremely expensive in Zurich, but the Austrians and the Swiss have the same fertility rate."

I don’t think the evidence either way is strong enough to call that one a myth. There are lots of other differences between the two countries that could offset the impact of Austria’s childcare subsidies.

There are plenty of longitudinal studies from various geographies, which I would summarize as “childcare subsidies increase birth rates in some contexts, but the effects are complex and depend on program specifics.” E.g. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2917182/ and https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CLEF-07...

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#285

Post by showerst »

bombcar wrote: post #165
ashishb wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One really common that myth this article busts is about child care. "Child care is virtually free in Vienna and extremely expensive in Zurich, but the Austrians and the Swiss have the same fertility rate."

Childcare can be nice to have but it can also be a full-time job just getting the kids there if you have more than a few. We certainly take advantage of things like free preschool; but if we look at it objectively (and ignore benefits to the child) it consumes more time than if we didn't use it - getting him ready, walking him to school, picking him up, etc. Since it's free, we look at "time spent" and it's something…

Minus the commute you had to do most of that anyway though, right? We get my four year old ready and walk her to school (city free pre-k a few blocks away, plus paid aftercare).

It takes about an hour to get breakfasted, dressed, and ready which we would be doing anyway. Counting the walk both ways it's about 30 minutes of extra time for 8 hours of childcare.

Unless your commute is just huge I can't see that math being true.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#286

Post by keiferski »

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

I think it probably just comes down to social pressure. There really isn't any social pressure to have kids, and in many places there is pressure against having them.

After all, people have been having kids since the dawn of time in much more uncomfortable situations with uncertain futures.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#287

Post by jedberg »

Hizonner wrote: post #266
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> Since the fertility problem is worldwide Slowed population growth, or even population shrinkage, is worldwide. The fertility "problem" is only inside some people's heads.

Not entirely. Sperm counts in young men have been falling for decades. No one is sure why.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#289

Post by [deleted] »

JPKab wrote: post #264
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

"Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them." Then please explain why birth rates throughout human history, when life was vastly more difficult and dangerous than it is now, were so much higher? Nobody had to meet this bar you set before. Let's just be honest here. There were three recent developments, all of which were, by themselves, good things…

[deleted]

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#290

Post by fullstop »

Aurornis wrote: post #268
watwut wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people. Being stay at home parent is one of the most lonely thing you can do. Yes, the parent who works in office and goes bowling with collagues is less lonely. But the one who is spending whole day with a small kid and no one else is much more lonely .They cant go bowling either, becaus…

I had a period of behind effectively a stay at home dad and I disagree with this completely. Being a stay at home parent doesn’t literally mean you have to stay at home . Take the kids and leave the house. Go on adventures. I met so many people randomly during that time. It was vastly more social than sitting in an office or working from home alone.

Did you struggle with dirty looks at the park?

I wasn't a SAHP but I'd spend time with my kids at a park nearby and people would give me dirty looks for playing with my kids if my wife wasn't present.

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