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The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

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Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#281

Post by pizlonator »

vessenes wrote: post #150
xvector wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple is sitting this whole thing out. Bizarre.

I mean, they tried. They just tried and failed. It may work out for them, though — two years ago it looked like lift-off was likely, or at least possible, so having a frontier model was existential. Today it looks like you might be able to save many billions by being a fast follower. I wouldn’t be surprised if the lift-off narrative comes back around though; we still have maybe a decade until we really understand the…

> I mean, they tried. They just tried and failed.

They tried to do something that probably would have looked like Copilot integration into Windows, and they chose not to do that, because they discovered that it sucked.

So, they failed in an internal sense, which is better than the externalized kind of failure that Microsoft experienced.

I think that the nut that hasn't been cracked is: how do you get LLMs to replace the OS shell and core set of apps that folks use. I think Microsoft is trying by shipping stuff that sucks and pissing off customers, while Apple tried internally declined to ship it. OpenClaw might be the most interesting stab in that direction, but even that doesn't feel like the last word on the subject.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#282

Post by shwaj »

baq wrote: post #217
shwaj wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s 4 though, where does Demis fit in the stack rank?

Demis is the reason Google is afloat with a good shot at winning the whole race. The issue currently is he isn’t willing to become the alphabet CEO. IMHO he’ll need to for the final legs.

I’d hate the job too. It would be interesting to see how Google might evolve with him at the helm, for sure.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#284

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

Turfie wrote: post #280
0xbadcafebee wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you should reconsider the idea that frontier models will be superior, for a couple reasons: - LLMs have fixed limitations. The first one is training, the dataset you use. There's only so much information in the world and we've largely downloaded it all, so it can't get better there. Next you can do training on specific things to make it better at specific things, but that is by definition niche; and you can a…

> There's only so much information in the world and we've largely downloaded it all, so it can't get better there. What about all the input data into LLMs and the conversations we're having? That must be able to produce a better next gen model, no? > it's ridiculously easy for anyone to fine-tune training, we don't need frontier companies for that. Not for me. It'll take me days, and then I'm pretty sure it won't be…

> What about all the input data into LLMs and the conversations we're having? That must be able to produce a better next gen model, no?

Better models are largely coming from training, tuning, and specific "techniques" discovered to do things like eliminate loops and hallucinations. Human inputs are a small portion of that; you'll notice that all models are getting better despite the fact that all these companies have different human inputs! A decent amount of the models' abilities come from properties like temperature/p-settings, which is basically introducing variable randomness. (these are now called "low" and "high" in frontier models) This can cause problems, but also increased capability, so the challenge isn't getting better input, it's better controlling randomness (sort of). Even coding models benefit from a small amount of this. But there is a lot more, so overall model improvements are not one thing, they are many things that are not novel. In fact, open models get novel techniques before the frontier does, it's been like that for a while.

> Not for me. It'll take me days, and then I'm pretty sure it won't be better than Gemini 3 pro for my coding needs, especially in reasoning.

If you don't want the improvements, that's up to you; I'm just saying the frontier has no advantage here, and if people want better than frontier, it's there for free.

> Why wouldn't e.g. Gemini just add a triage step? And are you sure it's that much easier to get a better model for math than the big ones?

They already do have triage steps, but despite that, they still create specific models for specific use-cases. Most people already choose Thinking by default for general queries, and coding models for coding. That will continue, but there will be more providers of more specific models that will outperform frontier models, for the simple fact that there's a million use-cases out there and lots of opportunity for startups/community to create a better tailored model for cheaper. And soon all our computers will be decent at doing AI locally, so why pay for frontier anyway? I can already AI-code locally on a 4 year old machine. Two years from now, there likley won't be a need for you to use a cloud service at all, because your local machine and a local model will be equivalent, private, and free.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#285

Post by icepush »

munksbeer wrote: post #250
icepush wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is starting to become clear to more and more people that Sam is a dyed in the wool True Believer in AGI. While it's obvious in hindsight that OpenAI would never have gotten anywhere if he wasn't, seeing it so starkly is really rubbing a lot of people the wrong way.

Why would him believing in AGI make people dislike him? He is clearly disliked by a lot of tech community, I don't see his AGI belief as a big part of that.

Well, in the world where AGI is created and it goes suboptimally, everybody gets turned into computronium and goes extinct, which is a prospect some are miffed about. And, in the world where it goes well, no decision of any consequence is made by a human being ever again, since the computer has planned every significant life event since before their birth. Free will in a very literal sense will have been erased. Sam being a true believer means he is not going to stop working until one of these worlds comes true. People who understand the stakes are understandably irked by him.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#286

Post by rchaud »

tester756 wrote: post #205
misiti3780 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is the argument i continue to have with people. first mover isnt always an advantage - i think openai will be sold or pennies on these dollars someday (next 5 years after they run out of funding). Google has data, TPUs, and a shitload of cash to burn

>first mover isnt always an advantage but in this case it is, ChatGPT name is really, really strong, it's like "just google it" instead of "just search the web"

Name recognition only gets you so far. "Just Google it" happened because Google was better than Hotbot/Altavista/Yahoo! etc by orders of magnitude. Nobody even bothered to launch a competing search engine in the 2000s because of this (until Microsoft w/ Bing in 2009). There is no such parallel with ChatGPT; Google, Bing, even DuckDuckGo has AI search.

First mover advantage matters only if it has long-lasting network effects. American schools are run on Chromebooks and Google Docs/Slides, but these have no penetration in enterprise, as college students have been discovering when they enter their first jobs.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#287

Post by rchaud »

mrcwinn wrote: post #92

The article references an “undisciplined” business. I wonder if this is speaking to projects like Sora. Sora is technically impressive and was fun for a moment, but it’s nowhere near the cultural relevance of TikTok, but I believe significantly more expensive, harder to monetize, and consuming some significant share of their precious GPU capacity. Maybe I’m just not the demo and missing something. And yes, Sam is inc…

Hey, at least Sora exists. They acquired Jony Ive's company for $6.5bn without even any vaporware to point to.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#288

Post by filoeleven »

senordevnyc wrote: post #273
ryanSrich wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there are two things that happened 1. OpenAI bet largely on consumer. Consumers have mostly rejected AI. And in a lot of cases even hate it (can't go on TikTok or Reddit without people calling something slop, or hating on AI generated content). Anthropic on the other hand went all in on B2B and coding. That seems to be the much better market to be in. 2. Sam Altman is profoundly unlikable.

HN is such a bubble. ChatGPT is wildly successful, and about to be an order of magnitude more so, once they add ads. And I have never heard a non-technical person mention Altman. I highly doubt they have any idea who he is, or care. They’re all still using ChatGPT.

> and about to be an order of magnitude more so, once they add ads.

How do you figure?

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#289

Post by moomoo11 »

mattmanser wrote: post #206
moomoo11 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s kind of sad. I can’t believe I used to like him back in the iron man days. Back then I thought he was cool for the various ideas and projects he was working on. I still think many of those are great but he as a person let me down. Now I have him muted on X.

But you're still on Twitter and calling it X...

So? I bet you think you're clever. You're using platforms daily that are ran by insane people. Don't forget that the internet itself was a military invention.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#290

Post by oska »

philo_sophia wrote: post #112
TheRoque wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, not leaked emails, but it's the Greg Brockman's diary and leaked texts. I didn't find the original lawsuit documents, but there's a screenshot in this video: https://youtu.be/csybdOY_CQM?si=otx3yn4N26iZoN7L&t=182 (timestamp is 3:02 if you don't see it) There's more details about the behind-the-scenes and greg brockman's diary leaks in this article: https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/open-ai-lawsuit-exposed-the..…

Hate that bringing fraud to justice means paying out to the wealthiest person on the planet....

Justice should be blind
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