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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

281–290 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think that’s feasible because China’s capital markets aren’t secure for foreign investors and never will be unless China changes the very thing that they want to be. They’d have to open their markets, be open to direct foreign investment, no more China-only ownership of companies, and no more artificial devaluation of the Yuan. Also the US capital market is huge. Surprisingly huge, even, and there is very lit…

Does using the Renminbi require investing in securities? It's a very different thing to trust that China will maintain the value of its currency, than to trust that investment in Chinese companies will remain liquid and not be arbitrarily cut to a price of zero. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I also don't fully understand the need to have grander access to capital markets. Perhaps access to the equivalent of US Tre…

China is notorious for not maintaining the value of it's currency though.

That's why do many Chinese people buy assets in the Anglo world; assets are much better protected here

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#282
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). I don’t really understand the impact of Brexit on the euro, as Britain wasn’t on it. But clearly they were a key part of the EU. It’ll be interesting to see which side regrets the move more.

The answer is already clear: Britain regrets the move more. In June 2025, 56% of people in Great Britain thought it was the wrong decision: https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-po... It's hard to imagine this number would be going down after recent events like USA suddenly threatening arbitrary new tariffs on the UK.

But only 56% in a poll? Is that enough for another referendum and guarantee rejoin? EU politicians have made it clear, ALL UK opt-outs will be gone if UK rejoins, whether it is UK opt-out regarding budget (like paying billions less in annual EU fees like UK did before), to special fishing rights pre-Brexit, to forced to adopt Euro currency and drop Pound sterling.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#283
post #235
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin

People downvote this but Bitcoin has some very nice properties: - easy to verify/impossible to forge (as opposed to gold and paper currency) - fixed supply (as opposed to paper currency, oil, and even gold) - easy to transfer from one party to another (as opposed to gold, oil, and physical cash)

> easy to transfer from one party to another

"Let me just set up my P2P connection to the Bitcoin network and pay mining fees and hope a miner validates the block"

vs

"Here's a bar of gold mate"

Sure, real easy

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#284

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

That is true, but it also goes well beyond that. Much of the "US Gov't behavior" is largely related to trashing and panicked frantic moves because the consequences of its prior and long tailed actions over decades has now not only started bearing rotten fruit, but a previous strategy of world domination through "globalism" has also turned against those who control the Wizard of the USA from behind the curtain.

On the face of it the Greenland situation makes no sense on a national security level regarding a non-existent, fabricated Chinese or Russian threat, nor related to the fantastical grift of the "Golden Dome" that is even more useless against what Russia has recently developed, than it was for things prior to about 3 years ago.

What we are looking at here (you can tell your children that you heard it here first) is a strategic move to essentially take Canada and all of the NA continent, and eventually all of the Americas. Yes, Canada, you are indeed in danger as well as Mexico. I don't see how it could be any other way in the face of current developments; remember Trumps USMCA, i.e., a de facto North American Union?

Biden stated that he wants the USA to have 300 million more "immigrants" before he let in about 15 million in 4 years. Annexing Canada is about 40M by the time we do it, Mexico would add another 150M plus however many people would flood into Mexico to become "Americans". That bring us to a total of around 550 million by the time the North American Union comes around. Perhaps if the UK joins, we will just call it Oceania already.

It does not address the fact that China has 1.4 billion and India another 1.4 billion, but it puts us in contention, especially as Europe has about 700 million by that time if/when the EU absorbs most of Europe.

That also doe not take into account the Wizard of the USA wanting to take over all of South America for positive control eventually… another ~480 million by that time, putting the American Union of Oceania at about 1 Billion, ±100M.

These are real tabletop calculations and how things are seen at the top and discussed amidst cocktails.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#285
post #201
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reverse is true: people who say things like "The US century is over" almost always dislike the US or wish its global influence would decline. Their commentary is wishful thinking. There is some probability that US global influence does significantly decline but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Not true. Some, like myself, love the idea of the shining city on the hill, although we often find the behavior of the actual city less than shining. I would like for the US to continue being a beacon of freedom where people can come and build great lives. But that is not the direction we are going, and one might reasonably forecast that no country can maintain indefinite dominance. Paul Kennedy wrote "The Rise and F…

> Not true. Some, like myself, love the idea of the shining city on the hill, although we often find the behavior of the actual city less than shining.

Your first sentence says "not true". Your second sentence says "true".

Your dislike of the current US regime/behavior causes you to forcast the decline of US influence. I'm not saying you should like current US behavior, just that there isn't good evidence for any decline.

These things are hard to predict. The most likely situation is not decline: it is continuity, where the US retains its global influence for the time being.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#286
post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Hopes or morality do not strictly dictate power as much as we might wish it to be true.

The number of Trump apologists lunatics who do not seem to understand what MAD was about is staggering.

Industrial scale warfare isn't some secret forgotten by accident.

The current American power-trip fantasy delusion is rightfully scaring the shit out of people, and the scary thing is the people who aren't scared.

It's reaching the point that I think the best thing is for Germany to detonate a nuke between the US and Greenland just to wake up the idiots who think it would be unreasonably difficult.

--

Edit: I see people are misunderstanding me as saying they should use the US bombs stationed there. I'm saying they should build their own - to have people remember that It's not really that hard if you have a functioning industrial sector.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#287
post #240
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People downvote this but Bitcoin has some very nice properties: - easy to verify/impossible to forge (as opposed to gold and paper currency) - fixed supply (as opposed to paper currency, oil, and even gold) - easy to transfer from one party to another (as opposed to gold, oil, and physical cash)

Suffers from no government having a stake in it. If it causes them problems, it can easily become illegal.

Precisely this makes it attractive. If it can't be _your_ currency let it at least be a currency no other nation controls.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#288
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People downvote this but Bitcoin has some very nice properties: - easy to verify/impossible to forge (as opposed to gold and paper currency) - fixed supply (as opposed to paper currency, oil, and even gold) - easy to transfer from one party to another (as opposed to gold, oil, and physical cash)

> easy to transfer from one party to another "Let me just set up my P2P connection to the Bitcoin network and pay mining fees and hope a miner validates the block" vs "Here's a bar of gold mate" Sure, real easy

> "Here's a bar of gold mate"

Yeah, super convenient. Well worth it. I'll just go with gold bars on me to the market to buy lettuce.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#289

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

Nobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well. There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.

> it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so

This is how you grow a sclerotic, internationally-uncompetitive domestic industry. See: shipbuilding.

Where tariffs work is as a nursery policy. Give firms a safe haven to grow in. Then let competition hone them. South Korea has pioneered this playbook; China copied it. We were sort of doing it, but the current administration blew up our nascent new energy industry.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#290
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a sound response to some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

Was it them that did that or employers freezing wages and losing R&D credits/facing tarrifs / wild instability?

Well, seeing is how that happened before the tariffs, yeah, I'd have to agree with GP.
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