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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#281

Post by rich_sasha »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

It's still a bit of a mystery to me TBH. Not that Americans are paying it, but where's the cash?

The headline suggests it was all passed into consumers. So why is inflation still so low? If you add 10-30% to prices (granted, of imports, not of houses, domestic food etc), you'd expect more.

If companies were eating it (which apparently they aren't) then their profitability should be down. But that doesn't seem to be the case either.

So..??? It's like that riddle with the three guys buying a pizza. Where did the money go?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#282

Post by 0xy »

jacquesm wrote: post #126
0xy wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

We usually critique the movie after the end titles roll.

I'm not unconvinced by the idea that businesses in the US dulled inflation by pulling forward stock purchases and stockpiling goods. But 9 months worth of goods? SMBs can't afford to do that. Large enterprises don't have the warehousing capacity to do that.

Could you imagine Amazon increasing their stock on hand by 30%? Maybe. Could you imagine them quadrupling their stock on hand? Seems unlikely.

Impacts should've shown up by now, most of the stockpiled goods would've been sold down.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#283

Post by melvinmelih »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

“Sir, you have the vote of every thinking person.” “That’s not enough — I need a majority.” — Adlai Stevenson

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#284

Post by Muromec »

oulipo2 wrote: post #253
BanAntiVaxxers wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

She’s known to own firearms. I wonder what would happen if one of these Democrat candidates released a video like “A girl and her Glock: Kamala goes John Wick”. Similarly, AOC should visit the south, eat some grits, volunteer with some Black churches, and do a little skeet shooting with some good ole boys.

So you're confirming that EVERYTHING about politics in the US is just... spectacle? a show? Ideas and modeling no longer matters? What matters is that you're doing a TikTok eating a southern specialty?

It's not like the dems did either of those things.

Spectacles actually matter too. You need to know which one to perform and that requires certain understanding of your audience

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#285

Post by andsoitis »

dominicrose wrote: post #263
andsoitis wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think Americans aren't taxed enough. If tariffs are a tax on the consumer, then you probably think the tariffs are in fact good ("American's aren't taxed enough"). But I'm more curious about what makes you think Americans aren't taxed enough. Why do you say that and do you have something specific in mind?

I don't "like" taxes I just think that people are more generous when they are obliged to be. It won't make them generous on top of the taxes but at least they'll pay the damn taxes. I live in France where the taxes are much higher than in the US. It's annoying but there are clearly some advantages and we are adapted to a more humble lifestyle, which is fine.

Top marginal federal income tax rate in the US over time:

2018+: 37%

1993 - 2000: 39.6%

1981 - 1986: between 50% and 28%

1964 - 1980: 70%

1944 - 1963: 91%

1930s: 63 - 79%

1913 (income tax created): 7%

In most, though not all states, there's also State Income Tax. NYC also has a city tax on income.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#287

Post by DrScientist »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #236
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. No, it is surprising, as noted in the article, because basic economics suggests that suppliers will adjust pricing, and eat some of the tariff to keep their products competitive. Page 5: This finding was initially surprising to some observers. Standard economic models suggest that the incidence of a tariff depends on the re…

What that view ignores is the opposite which is what happens if sellers can easily switch to new alternatives?

ie what happens if global demand exceeds supply and a lot of companies have never tried to find other markets because of the inertia required to do so - but if they are pushed by tariffs they find there are alternative customers out there.

As an example - Canada appear to replaced trading food for cars with the US, to food for cars with China.

https://www.facebook.com/TechXnew/posts/canada-has-made-a-de...

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#288

Post by wyck »

andy_ppp wrote: post #220

The point of taxing goods made elsewhere is to make building equivalent goods in your local economy competitive for locals to purchase. I am pretty sure they are not putting a tax on EUV Lithography machines from ASML or at least you can have an exception if you bow down to the king... How did the US become this insane this fast - I'm not even against tariffs but you need to decide which industries to use them on e.g…

They are funding alternatives to ASML. ASML has hit a wall and it co-insides with a new innovation based policy, to bring America back to a tech leadership role. This is a critical economic and security policy, they are pouring billions into this tech as we speak. To think that ASML will continue to have a monopoly would be the actual insane thing.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#289

Post by nancyminusone »

BanAntiVaxxers wrote: post #121
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

[flagged]

This is unfortunate but probably more true than anyone wants to admit.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#290

Post by greenavocado »

rich_sasha wrote: post #281
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

It's still a bit of a mystery to me TBH. Not that Americans are paying it, but where's the cash? The headline suggests it was all passed into consumers. So why is inflation still so low? If you add 10-30% to prices (granted, of imports, not of houses, domestic food etc), you'd expect more. If companies were eating it (which apparently they aren't) then their profitability should be down. But that doesn't seem to be t…

Chinese exporters and the Beijing government absorb most US tariffs rather than passing them fully to American consumers.

Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick: “The model is clear: 10% tariffs or less are paid by the manufacturers, the distributors, the businesses,” he said. “The consumer doesn’t pay. The consumer doesn’t pay because the seller doesn’t want to raise prices, because if they could, they would, but they don’t want to sell less. So they eat it.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lutnick-beijing-eating-maj...

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